Linking Unserved Energy to Weather Regimes

The integration of renewable energy sources into power systems is expected to increase significantly in the coming decades. This can result in critical situations related to the strong variability in space and time of weather patterns. During these critical situations the power system experiences a structural shortage of energy across multiple time steps and regions, leading to Energy Not Served (ENS) events. Our research explores the relationship between six weather regimes that describe the large scale atmospheric flow and ENS events in Europe by simulating future power systems. Our results indicate that most regions have a specific weather regime that leads to the highest number of ENS events. However, ENS events can still occur during any weather regime, but with a lower probability. In particular, our findings show that ENS events in western and central European countries often coincide with either the positive Scandinavian Blocking (SB+), characterised by cold air penetrating Europe under calm weather conditions from north-eastern regions, or North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO+) weather regime, characterised by westerly flow and cold air in the southern half of Europe. Additionally, we found that the relative impact of one of these regimes reaches a peak 10 days before ENS events in these countries. In Scandinavian and Baltic countries, on the other hand, our results indicate that the relative prevalence of the negative Atlantic Ridge (AR-) weather regime is higher during and leading up to the ENS event.Comment: Rogier H. Wuijts and Laurens P. Stoop contributed equally to this wor

Towards a future-proof climate database for European energy system studies

In 2013, the European Network of Transmission System Operators (TSOs) for electricity (ENTSO-E) created the Pan-European Climate Database (PECD), a tool that has underpinned most studies conducted by TSOs ever since. So far, the different versions of the PECD have used so-called modern-era ‘reanalysis’ products that represent a gridded amalgamation of historical conditions from observations. However, scientific evidence suggests, and recent European regulation requires, that power system adequacy studies should take climate change into account when estimating the future potential of variable renewable resources, such as wind, solar and hydro, and the impact of temperature on electricity demand. This paper explains the need for future climate data in energy systems studies and provides high-level recommendations for building a future-proof reference climate dataset for TSOs, not just in Europe, but also globally

Towards a future-proof climate database for European energy system studies

In 2013, the European Network of Transmission System Operators (TSOs) for electricity (ENTSO-E) created the Pan-European Climate Database (PECD), a tool that has underpinned most studies conducted by TSOs ever since. So far, the different versions of the PECD have used so-called modern-era 'reanalysis' products that represent a gridded amalgamation of historical conditions from observations. However, scientific evidence suggests, and recent European regulation requires, that power system adequacy studies should take climate change into account when estimating the future potential of variable renewable resources, such as wind, solar and hydro, and the impact of temperature on electricity demand. This paper explains the need for future climate data in energy systems studies and provides high-level recommendations for building a future-proof reference climate dataset for TSOs, not just in Europe, but also globally

The Climatological Renewable Energy Deviation Index

Here we propose an index to quantify and analyse the impact of climatological variability on the energy system at different timescales. We define the Climatological Renewable Energy Deviation Index (CREDI) as the cumulative anomaly of a renewable resource with respect to its climate over a specific time period of interest. We analyse the index at decadal, annual and (sub-)seasonal timescales using the forthcoming Pan-European Climate Database and consider the starting point and window of analysis for its use at those timescales. The CREDI is meant as an analytical tool for researchers and stakeholders to help them quantify, understand, and explain, the impact of the variability of weather on the energy system across timescales. Improved understanding translates to better assessments of how renewable resources, and the associated risks for energy security, may fare in current and future climatological settings. The practical use of the index is in resource planning. For example transmission system operators may be able to adjust short-term planning to reduce adequacy issues before they occur or combine the index with storyline event selection for improved assessments of climate change related risks

The importance of weather and climate to energy systems: a workshop on next generation challenges in energy-climate modelling

Over 80 international participants, representing weather, climate, and energy systems research, joined two 4-hour remote sessions to highlight and prioritize ongoing and future challenges in energy-climate modelling. The workshop had two primary goals: to build a deeper engagement across the “energy” and “climate” research communities, and to identify and begin to address the scientific challenges associated with modelling climate risk in energy systems

Incorporating climate change effects into the European power system adequacy assessment using a post-processing method

The demand-supply balance of electricity systems is fundamentally linked to climate conditions. In light of this, the present study aims to model the effect of climate change on the European electricity system, specifically on its long-term reliability. A resource adequate power system – a system where electricity supply covers demand – is sensitive to generation capacity, demand patterns, and the network structure and capacity. Climate change is foreseen to affect each of these components. In this analysis, we focused on two drivers of power system adequacy: the impact of temperature variations on electricity demand, and of water inflows changes on hydro generation. Using a post-processing approach, based on results found in the literature, the inputs of a large-scale electricity market model covering the European region were modified. The results show that climate change may decrease total LOLE (Loss of Load Expectation) hours in Europe by more than 50%, as demand will largely decrease because of a higher temperatures during winter. We found that the climate change impact on demand tends to decrease LOLE values, while the climate change effects on hydrological conditions tend to increase LOLE values. The study is built on a limited amount of open-source data and can flexibly incorporate various sets of assumptions. Outcomes also show the current difficulties to reliably model the effects of climate change on power system adequacy. Overall, our presented method displays the relevance of climate change effects in electricity network studies

Incorporating climate change effects into the European power system adequacy assessment using a post-processing method

The demand-supply balance of electricity systems is fundamentally linked to climate conditions. In light of this, the present study aims to model the effect of climate change on the European electricity system, specifically on its long-term reliability. A resource adequate power system – a system where electricity supply covers demand – is sensitive to generation capacity, demand patterns, and the network structure and capacity. Climate change is foreseen to affect each of these components. In this analysis, we focused on two drivers of power system adequacy: the impact of temperature variations on electricity demand, and of water inflows changes on hydro generation. Using a post-processing approach, based on results found in the literature, the inputs of a large-scale electricity market model covering the European region were modified. The results show that climate change may decrease total LOLE (Loss of Load Expectation) hours in Europe by more than 50%, as demand will largely decrease because of a higher temperatures during winter. We found that the climate change impact on demand tends to decrease LOLE values, while the climate change effects on hydrological conditions tend to increase LOLE values. The study is built on a limited amount of open-source data and can flexibly incorporate various sets of assumptions. Outcomes also show the current difficulties to reliably model the effects of climate change on power system adequacy. Overall, our presented method displays the relevance of climate change effects in electricity network studies

The Climatological Renewable Energy Deviation Index

Here we propose an index to quantify and analyse the impact of climatological variability on the energy system at different timescales. We define the Climatological Renewable Energy Deviation Index (CREDI) as the cumulative anomaly of a renewable resource with respect to its climate over a specific time period of interest. We analyse the index at decadal, annual and (sub-)seasonal timescales using the forthcoming Pan-European Climate Database and consider the starting point and window of analysis for its use at those timescales. The CREDI is meant as an analytical tool for researchers and stakeholders to help them quantify, understand, and explain, the impact of the variability of weather on the energy system across timescales. Improved understanding translates to better assessments of how renewable resources, and the associated risks for energy security, may fare in current and future climatological settings. The practical use of the index is in resource planning. For example transmission system operators may be able to adjust short-term planning to reduce adequacy issues before they occur or combine the index with storyline event selection for improved assessments of climate change related risks

Meteorological conditions leading to extreme low variable renewable energy production and extreme high energy shortfall

To mitigate climate change a renewable energy transition is needed. Existing power systems will need to be redesigned to balance variable renewable energy production with variable energy demand. We investigate the meteorological sensitivity of a highly-renewable European energy system using large ensemble simulations from two global climate models. Based on 32000 years of simulated weather conditions, daily wind and solar energy yields, and energy demand are calculated. From this data, 1-, 7- and 14-days events of extreme low renewable energy production and extreme high energy shortfall are selected. Energy shortfall is defined as the residual load, i.e. demand minus renewable production. 1-day low energy production days are characterised by large-scale high pressure systems over central Europe, with lower than normal wind speeds. These events typically occur in winter when solar energy is limited due to short day lengths. Situations of atmospheric blocking lead to long lasting periods of low energy production, such 7- and 14-days low production events peak late summer. High energy shortfall events occur due to comparable high pressure systems though now combined with below normal temperatures, driving up energy demand. In contrast to the low energy production events, 1-, 7- and 14-days high shortfall events all occur mid-winter, locked to the coldest months of the year. A spatial redistribution of wind turbines and solar panels cannot prevent these high-impact events, options to import renewable energy from remote locations during these events are limited. Projected changes due to climate change are substantially smaller than interannual variability. Future power systems with large penetration of variable renewable energy must be designed with these events in mind