25 research outputs found
Incorporating climate change effects into the European power system adequacy assessment using a post-processing method
The demand-supply balance of electricity systems is fundamentally linked to
climate conditions. In light of this, the present study aims to model the
effect of climate change on the European electricity system, specifically on
its long-term reliability. A resource adequate power system -- a system where
electricity supply covers demand -- is sensitive to generation capacity, demand
patterns, and the network structure and capacity. Climate change is foreseen to
affect each of these components.
In this analysis, we focused on two drivers of power system adequacy: the
impact of temperature variations on electricity demand, and of water inflows
changes on hydro generation. Using a post-processing approach, based on results
found in the literature, the inputs of a large-scale electricity market model
covering the European region were modified. The results show that climate
change may decrease total LOLE (Loss of Load Expectation) hours in Europe by
more than 50%, as demand will largely decrease because of a higher temperatures
during winter. We found that the climate change impact on demand tends to
decrease LOLE values, while the climate change effects on hydrological
conditions tend to increase LOLE values.
The study is built on a limited amount of open-source data and can flexibly
incorporate various sets of assumptions. Outcomes also show the current
difficulties to reliably model the effects of climate change on power system
adequacy. Overall, our presented method displays the relevance of climate
change effects in electricity network studies
Data Driven Understanding of Energy-Meteorological Variability and its Impact on Energy System Operations
Earth’s climate is changing. For a habitable planet in the future the emission of greenhouse gasses needs to be stopped. As future societies still require energy for their basic needs, a transition away from fossil fuel to renewable energy sources is needed. Nothing is as variable as the weather, and weather is the driving force of renewable energy resources. The interaction of societal and weather driven variability, here coined the energy-meteorological variability, is still largely unchartered. This variability is the central theme of this thesis. The different backgrounds and expertise of those working at the intersection of the energy and climate domain mean that the current methods to assess this variability in energy system operations are inadequate. A data driven approach is needed to incorporate the energy-meteorological variability within assessments of (future) energy systems. In this thesis we investigate data driven methods and metrics to quantify and identify a deviation of the expected patterns. We need to overcome the disconnect between energy and climate scientists in order to integrate an understanding of variability in energy system operations. The applicability of approaches in operational energy system assessments is key. Intensive and sustainable collaborations between the different disciplines is needed to facilitate the energy transition, between the different domains of science as well as between science and industry
Detection of Critical Events in Renewable Energy Production Time Series
The introduction of more renewable energy sources into the energy system
increases the variability and weather dependence of electricity generation.
Power system simulations are used to assess the adequacy and reliability of the
electricity grid over decades, but often become computational intractable for
such long simulation periods with high technical detail. To alleviate this
computational burden, we investigate the use of outlier detection algorithms to
find periods of extreme renewable energy generation which enables detailed
modelling of the performance of power systems under these circumstances.
Specifically, we apply the Maximum Divergent Intervals (MDI) algorithm to power
generation time series that have been derived from ERA5 historical climate
reanalysis covering the period from 1950 through 2019. By applying the MDI
algorithm on these time series, we identified intervals of extreme low and high
energy production. To determine the outlierness of an interval different
divergence measures can be used. Where the cross-entropy measure results in
shorter and strongly peaking outliers, the unbiased Kullback-Leibler divergence
tends to detect longer and more persistent intervals. These intervals are
regarded as potential risks for the electricity grid by domain experts,
showcasing the capability of the MDI algorithm to detect critical events in
these time series. For the historical period analysed, we found no trend in
outlier intensity, or shift and lengthening of the outliers that could be
attributed to climate change. By applying MDI on climate model output, power
system modellers can investigate the adequacy and possible changes of risk for
the current and future electricity grid under a wider range of scenarios
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The influence of weather regimes on European renewable energy production and demand
The growing share of variable renewable energy increases the meteorological sensitivity of power systems. This study investigates if large-scale weather regimes capture the influence of meteorological variability on the European energy sector. For each weather regime, the associated changes to wintertime -mean and extreme- wind and solar power production, temperature-driven energy demand and energy shortfall (residual load) are explored. Days with a blocked circulation pattern, i.e. the Scandinavian Blocking and NAO negative regimes, on average have lower than normal renewable power production, higher than normal energy demand and therefore, higher than normal energy shortfall. These average effects hide large variability of energy parameters within each weather regime. Though the risk of extreme high energy shortfall events increases in the two blocked regimes (by a factor of 2.0 and 1.5, respectively), it is shown that such events occur in all regimes. Extreme high energy shortfall events are the result of rare circulation types and smaller-scale features, rather than extreme magnitudes of common large-scale circulation types. In fact, these events resemble each other more strongly than their respective weather regime mean pattern. For (sub-)seasonal forecasting applications weather regimes may be of use for the energy sector. At shorter lead times or for more detailed system analyses, their ineffectiveness at characterising extreme events limits their potential
Linking Unserved Energy to Weather Regimes
The integration of renewable energy sources into power systems is expected to
increase significantly in the coming decades. This can result in critical
situations related to the strong variability in space and time of weather
patterns. During these critical situations the power system experiences a
structural shortage of energy across multiple time steps and regions, leading
to Energy Not Served (ENS) events. Our research explores the relationship
between six weather regimes that describe the large scale atmospheric flow and
ENS events in Europe by simulating future power systems. Our results indicate
that most regions have a specific weather regime that leads to the highest
number of ENS events. However, ENS events can still occur during any weather
regime, but with a lower probability.
In particular, our findings show that ENS events in western and central
European countries often coincide with either the positive Scandinavian
Blocking (SB+), characterised by cold air penetrating Europe under calm weather
conditions from north-eastern regions, or North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO+)
weather regime, characterised by westerly flow and cold air in the southern
half of Europe. Additionally, we found that the relative impact of one of these
regimes reaches a peak 10 days before ENS events in these countries. In
Scandinavian and Baltic countries, on the other hand, our results indicate that
the relative prevalence of the negative Atlantic Ridge (AR-) weather regime is
higher during and leading up to the ENS event.Comment: Rogier H. Wuijts and Laurens P. Stoop contributed equally to this
wor
Towards a future-proof climate database for European energy system studies
In 2013, the European Network of Transmission System Operators (TSOs) for electricity (ENTSO-E) created the Pan-European Climate Database (PECD), a tool that has underpinned most studies conducted by TSOs ever since. So far, the different versions of the PECD have used so-called modern-era ‘reanalysis’ products that represent a gridded amalgamation of historical conditions from observations. However, scientific evidence suggests, and recent European regulation requires, that power system adequacy studies should take climate change into account when estimating the future potential of variable renewable resources, such as wind, solar and hydro, and the impact of temperature on electricity demand. This paper explains the need for future climate data in energy systems studies and provides high-level recommendations for building a future-proof reference climate dataset for TSOs, not just in Europe, but also globally
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Towards a future-proof climate database for European energy system studies
In 2013, the European Network of Transmission System Operators (TSOs) for electricity (ENTSO-E) created the Pan-European Climate Database (PECD), a tool that has underpinned most studies conducted by TSOs ever since. So far, the different versions of the PECD have used so-called modern-era 'reanalysis' products that represent a gridded amalgamation of historical conditions from observations. However, scientific evidence suggests, and recent European regulation requires, that power system adequacy studies should take climate change into account when estimating the future potential of variable renewable resources, such as wind, solar and hydro, and the impact of temperature on electricity demand. This paper explains the need for future climate data in energy systems studies and provides high-level recommendations for building a future-proof reference climate dataset for TSOs, not just in Europe, but also globally
The Climatological Renewable Energy Deviation Index
Here we propose an index to quantify and analyse the impact of climatological variability on the energy system at different timescales. We define the Climatological Renewable Energy Deviation Index (CREDI) as the cumulative anomaly of a renewable resource with respect to its climate over a specific time period of interest. We analyse the index at decadal, annual and (sub-)seasonal timescales using the forthcoming Pan-European Climate Database and consider the starting point and window of analysis for its use at those timescales. The CREDI is meant as an analytical tool for researchers and stakeholders to help them quantify, understand, and explain, the impact of the variability of weather on the energy system across timescales. Improved understanding translates to better assessments of how renewable resources, and the associated risks for energy security, may fare in current and future climatological settings. The practical use of the index is in resource planning. For example transmission system operators may be able to adjust short-term planning to reduce adequacy issues before they occur or combine the index with storyline event selection for improved assessments of climate change related risks
The climatological renewable energy deviation index (CREDI)
We propose an index to quantify and analyse the impact of climatological variability on the energy system at different timescales. We define the climatological renewable energy deviation index (CREDI) as the cumulative anomaly of a renewable resource with respect to its climate over a specific time period of interest. For this we introduce the smooth, yet physical, hourly rolling window climatology that captures the expected hourly to yearly behaviour of renewable resources. We analyse the presented index at decadal, annual and (sub-)seasonal timescales for a sample region and discuss scientific and practical implications. CREDI is meant as an analytical tool for researchers and stakeholders to help them quantify, understand, and explain, the impact of energymeteorological variability on future energy system. Improved understanding translates to better assessments of how renewable resources, and the associated risks for energy security, may fare in current and future climatological settings. The practical use of the index is in resource planning. For example transmission system operators may be able to adjust short-Term planning to reduce adequacy issues before they occur or combine the index with storyline event selection for improved assessments of climate change related risks