Modeling multivariable hydrological series: principal component analysis or independent component analysis?

The generation of synthetic multivariate rainfall and/or streamflow time series that accurately simulate both the spatial and temporal dependence of the original multivariate series remains a challenging problem in hydrology and frequently requires either the estimation of a large number of model parameters or significant simplifying assumptions on the model structure. As an alternative, we propose a relatively parsimonious two-step approach to generating synthetic multivariate time series at monthly or longer timescales, by first transforming the data to a set of statistically independent univariate time series and then applying a univariate time series model to the transformed data. The transformation is achieved through a technique known as independent component analysis (ICA), which uses an approximation of mutual information to maximize the independence between the transformed series. We compare this with principal component analysis (PCA), which merely removes the covariance (or spatial correlation) of the multivariate time series, without necessarily ensuring complete independence. Both methods are tested using a monthly multivariate data set of reservoir inflows from Colombia. We show that the discrepancy between the synthetically generated data and the original data, measured as the mean integrated squared bias, is reduced by 25% when using ICA compared with PCA for the full joint distribution and by 28% when considering marginal densities in isolation. These results suggest that there may be significant benefits to maximizing statistical independence, rather than merely removing correlation, when developing models for the synthetic generation of multivariate time series.Seth Westra, Casey Brown, Upmanu Lall and Ashish Sharm

The diagnostic criteria for small fibre neuropathy: from symptoms to neuropathology

Small fibre neuropathy (SFN), a condition dominated by neuropathic pain, is frequently encountered in clinical practise either as prevalent manifestation of more diffuse neuropathy or distinct nosologic entity. Aetiology of SFN includes pre-diabetes status and immune-mediated diseases, though it remains frequently unknown. Due to their physiologic characteristics, small nerve fibres cannot be investigated by routine electrophysiological tests, making the diagnosis particularly difficult. Quantitative sensory testing (QST) to assess the psychophysical thresholds for cold and warm sensations and skin biopsy with quantification of somatic intraepidermal nerve fibres (IENF) have been used to determine the damage to small nerve fibres. Nevertheless, the diagnostic criteria for SFN have not been defined yet and a ‘gold standard’ for clinical practise and research is not available. We screened 486 patients referred to our institutions and collected 124 patients with sensory neuropathy. Among them, we identified 67 patients with pure SFN using a new diagnostic ‘gold standard’, based on the presence of at least two abnormal results at clinical, QST and skin biopsy examination. The diagnosis of SFN was achieved by abnormal clinical and skin biopsy findings in 43.3% of patients, abnormal skin biopsy and QST findings in 37.3% of patients, abnormal clinical and QST findings in 11.9% of patients, whereas 7.5% patients had abnormal results at all the examinations. Skin biopsy showed a diagnostic efficiency of 88.4%, clinical examination of 54.6% and QST of 46.9%. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis confirmed the significantly higher performance of skin biopsy comparing with QST. However, we found a significant inverse correlation between IENF density and both cold and warm thresholds at the leg. Clinical examination revealed pinprick and thermal hypoesthesia in about 50% patients, and signs of peripheral vascular autonomic dysfunction in about 70% of patients. Spontaneous pain dominated the clinical picture in most SFN patients. Neuropathic pain intensity was more severe in patients with SFN than in patients with large or mixed fibre neuropathy, but there was no significant correlation with IENF density. The aetiology of SFN was initially unknown in 41.8% of patients and at 2-year follow-up a potential cause could be determined in 25% of them. Over the same period, 13% of SFN patients showed the involvement of large nerve fibres, whereas in 45.6% of them the clinical picture did not change. Spontaneous remission of neuropathic pain occurred in 10.9% of SFN patients, while it worsened in 30.4% of them

Temporal changes in the epidemiology, management, and outcome from acute respiratory distress syndrome in European intensive care units: a comparison of two large cohorts

Background: Mortality rates for patients with ARDS remain high. We assessed temporal changes in the epidemiology and management of ARDS patients requiring invasive mechanical ventilation in European ICUs. We also investigated the association between ventilatory settings and outcome in these patients. Methods: This was a post hoc analysis of two cohorts of adult ICU patients admitted between May 1–15, 2002 (SOAP study, n = 3147), and May 8–18, 2012 (ICON audit, n = 4601 admitted to ICUs in the same 24 countries as the SOAP study). ARDS was defined retrospectively using the Berlin definitions. Values of tidal volume, PEEP, plateau pressure, and FiO2 corresponding to the most abnormal value of arterial PO2 were recorded prospectively every 24 h. In both studies, patients were followed for outcome until death, hospital discharge or for 60 days. Results: The frequency of ARDS requiring mechanical ventilation during the ICU stay was similar in SOAP and ICON (327[10.4%] vs. 494[10.7%], p = 0.793). The diagnosis of ARDS was established at a median of 3 (IQ: 1–7) days after admission in SOAP and 2 (1–6) days in ICON. Within 24 h of diagnosis, ARDS was mild in 244 (29.7%), moderate in 388 (47.3%), and severe in 189 (23.0%) patients. In patients with ARDS, tidal volumes were lower in the later (ICON) than in the earlier (SOAP) cohort. Plateau and driving pressures were also lower in ICON than in SOAP. ICU (134[41.1%] vs 179[36.9%]) and hospital (151[46.2%] vs 212[44.4%]) mortality rates in patients with ARDS were similar in SOAP and ICON. High plateau pressure (> 29 cmH2O) and driving pressure (> 14 cmH2O) on the first day of mechanical ventilation but not tidal volume (> 8 ml/kg predicted body weight [PBW]) were independently associated with a higher risk of in-hospital death. Conclusion: The frequency of and outcome from ARDS remained relatively stable between 2002 and 2012. Plateau pressure > 29 cmH2O and driving pressure > 14 cmH2O on the first day of mechanical ventilation but not tidal volume > 8 ml/kg PBW were independently associated with a higher risk of death. These data highlight the continued burden of ARDS and provide hypothesis-generating data for the design of future studies

Intravenous Immunoglobulin Therapy in Patients With Painful Idiopathic Small Fiber Neuropathy

OBJECTIVE: This is the first double-blind randomized controlled trial evaluating the efficacy and safety of IV immunoglobulin (IVIG) vs placebo in patients with idiopathic small fiber neuropathy (I-SFN). METHODS: Between July 2016 and November 2018, 60 Dutch patients with skin biopsy–proven I-SFN randomly received a starting dose of IVIG (2 g/kg body weight) or matching placebo (0.9% saline). Subsequently, 3 additional infusions of IVIG (1 g/kg) or placebo were administered at 3-week intervals. The primary outcome was a 1-point change in Pain Intensity Numerical Rating Scale score at 12 weeks compared to baseline. RESULTS: Thirty patients received IVIG, and 30 received placebo. In both groups, 29 patients completed the trial. In 40% of patients receiving IVIG, the mean average pain was decreased by at least 1 point compared to 30% of the patients receiving placebo (p = 0.588, odds ratio 1.56, 95% confidence interval 0.53–4.53). No significant differences were found on any of the other prespecified outcomes, including general well-being, autonomic symptoms, and overall functioning and disability. CONCLUSIONS: This randomized controlled trial showed that IVIG treatment had no significant effect on pain in patients with painful I-SFN. TRIAL REGISTRATION INFORMATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02637700, EudraCT 2015-002624-31. CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE: This study provides Class I evidence that for patients with painful I-SFN, IVIG did not significantly reduce pain compared to placebo