COVARIANCE ANALYSIS WITH A COVARIATE INTERACTION: AN EXAMPLE OF A SIMPLE LINEAR REGRESSION COMPARISON TECHNIQUE

Many real data sets that would normally lend themselves to being analyzed by an analysis of covariance, have a covariate interaction present with one or more of the factors in the experiment. Because this violates the assumption of same-slope covariate effect across all treatments, an analysis of covariance should not be performed. The course normally taken when there is such an interaction is to derive regression equations for the dependent variable as a function of the covariate, at each level of the factor(s) being tested. A general linear model F-test can then be used to test whether there are any overall differences between the regression lines. A technique that uses two mathematical distance measures to detect regression line differences once a significant general linear model F-test is obtained is illustrated. Applying these distance measures enables us to perform modified multiple comparisons of the regressions without resorting to the use of multiple pairwise general linear model F-tests, which inflate the Type I error rate. with this method, we are able to incorporate both factor and covariate information into the analysis to overcome the covariate-factor interaction problem

Thermal-structural design study of an airframe-integrated Scramjet

The development and evaluation of a design concept for the cooled structures assembly for the Scramjet engine is discussed. Development concepts for engine subsystems and design concepts for the aircraft/engine interface are included. A thermal protection system was defined which makes it possible to attain a life of 100 hr and 1000 cycles, the specified goal. The coolant equivalence ratio at the Mach 10 maximum thermal loading condition is 0.6, indicating a capacity for airframe cooling. The mechanical design is feasible for manufacture using conventional materials. For the cooled structures in a six module engine, the mass per unit capture area is 1256 kg/sq m. The total mass of a six module engine assembly including the fuel system is 1502 kg

Field measurements of trace gases and aerosols emitted by peat fires in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia, during the 2015 El Nino

Abstract. Peat fires in Southeast Asia have become a major annual source of trace gases and particles to the regional–global atmosphere. The assessment of their influence on atmospheric chemistry, climate, air quality, and health has been uncertain partly due to a lack of field measurements of the smoke characteristics. During the strong 2015 El Niño event we deployed a mobile smoke sampling team in the Indonesian province of Central Kalimantan on the island of Borneo and made the first, or rare, field measurements of trace gases, aerosol optical properties, and aerosol mass emissions for authentic peat fires burning at various depths in different peat types. This paper reports the trace gas and aerosol measurements obtained by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, whole air sampling, photoacoustic extinctiometers (405 and 870 nm), and a small subset of the data from analyses of particulate filters. The trace gas measurements provide emission factors (EFs; grams of a compound per kilogram biomass burned) for up to  ∼  90 gases, including CO2, CO, CH4, non-methane hydrocarbons up to C10, 15 oxygenated organic compounds, NH3, HCN, NOx, OCS, HCl, etc. The modified combustion efficiency (MCE) of the smoke sources ranged from 0.693 to 0.835 with an average of 0.772 ± 0.053 (n  =  35), indicating essentially pure smoldering combustion, and the emissions were not initially strongly lofted. The major trace gas emissions by mass (EF as g kg−1) were carbon dioxide (1564 ± 77), carbon monoxide (291 ± 49), methane (9.51 ± 4.74), hydrogen cyanide (5.75 ± 1.60), acetic acid (3.89 ± 1.65), ammonia (2.86 ± 1.00), methanol (2.14 ± 1.22), ethane (1.52 ± 0.66), dihydrogen (1.22 ± 1.01), propylene (1.07 ± 0.53), propane (0.989 ± 0.644), ethylene (0.961 ± 0.528), benzene (0.954 ± 0.394), formaldehyde (0.867 ± 0.479), hydroxyacetone (0.860 ± 0.433), furan (0.772 ± 0.035), acetaldehyde (0.697 ± 0.460), and acetone (0.691 ± 0.356). These field data support significant revision of the EFs for CO2 (−8 %), CH4 (−55 %), NH3 (−86 %), CO (+39 %), and other gases compared with widely used recommendations for tropical peat fires based on a lab study of a single sample published in 2003. BTEX compounds (benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, xylenes) are important air toxics and aerosol precursors and were emitted in total at 1.5 ± 0.6 g kg−1. Formaldehyde is probably the air toxic gas most likely to cause local exposures that exceed recommended levels. The field results from Kalimantan were in reasonable agreement with recent lab measurements of smoldering Kalimantan peat for “overlap species,” lending importance to the lab finding that burning peat produces large emissions of acetamide, acrolein, methylglyoxal, etc., which were not measurable in the field with the deployed equipment and implying value in continued similar efforts. The aerosol optical data measured include EFs for the scattering and absorption coefficients (EF Bscat and EF Babs, m2 kg−1 fuel burned) and the single scattering albedo (SSA) at 870 and 405 nm, as well as the absorption Ångström exponents (AAE). By coupling the absorption and co-located trace gas and filter data we estimated black carbon (BC) EFs (g kg−1) and the mass absorption coefficient (MAC, m2 g−1) for the bulk organic carbon (OC) due to brown carbon (BrC). Consistent with the minimal flaming, the emissions of BC were negligible (0.0055 ± 0.0016 g kg−1). Aerosol absorption at 405 nm was  ∼  52 times larger than at 870 nm and BrC contributed  ∼  96 % of the absorption at 405 nm. Average AAE was 4.97 ± 0.65 (range, 4.29–6.23). The average SSA at 405 nm (0.974 ± 0.016) was marginally lower than the average SSA at 870 nm (0.998 ± 0.001). These data facilitate modeling climate-relevant aerosol optical properties across much of the UV/visible spectrum and the high AAE and lower SSA at 405 nm demonstrate the dominance of absorption by the organic aerosol. Comparing the Babs at 405 nm to the simultaneously measured OC mass on filters suggests a low MAC ( ∼  0.1) for the bulk OC, as expected for the low BC/OC ratio in the aerosol. The importance of pyrolysis (at lower MCE), as opposed to glowing (at higher MCE), in producing BrC is seen in the increase of AAE with lower MCE (r2 =  0.65)

Production of Secondary Organic Aerosol During Aging of Biomass Burning Smoke From Fresh Fuels and Its Relationship to VOC Precursors

After smoke from burning biomass is emitted into the atmosphere, chemical and physical processes change the composition and amount of organic aerosol present in the aged, diluted plume. During the fourth Fire Lab at Missoula Experiment, we performed smog-chamber experiments to investigate formation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) and multiphase oxidation of primary organic aerosol (POA). We simulated atmospheric aging of diluted smoke from a variety of biomass fuels while measuring particle composition using high-resolution aerosol mass spectrometry. We quantified SOA formation using a tracer ion for low-volatility POA as a reference standard (akin to a naturally occurring internal standard). These smoke aging experiments revealed variable organic aerosol (OA) enhancements, even for smoke from similar fuels and aging mechanisms. This variable OA enhancement correlated well with measured differences in the amounts of emitted volatile organic compounds (VOCs) that could subsequently be oxidized to form SOA. For some aging experiments, we were able to predict the SOA production to within a factor of 2 using a fuel-specific VOC emission inventory that was scaled by burn-specific toluene measurements. For fires of coniferous fuels that were dominated by needle burning, volatile biogenic compounds were the dominant precursor class. For wiregrass fires, furans were the dominant SOA precursors. We used a POA tracer ion to calculate the amount of mass lost due to gas-phase oxidation and subsequent volatilization of semivolatile POA. Less than 5% of the POA mass was lost via multiphase oxidation-driven evaporation during up to 2 hr of equivalent atmospheric oxidation

Nutrient and fecal microbe sources for a eutrophic lake and recommended remediation steps, Wilgreen Lake, Madison County, Kentucky

Wilgreen Lake is a man-made lake, classified as nutrient-impaired (303d list) by the EPA and State of Kentucky. The lake drains a watershed with residential developments, cattle pasture, modified woodlands, and some industrial/urban usage in the city of Richmond. The principal tributaries are Taylor Fork and Old Town Branch that meet to form the trunk of the lake approximately one mile in length. The upper reaches of Taylor Fork are adjacent to a densely-packed (quarter-acre lots) housing development with septic systems, and its watershed drains some portions of southern Richmond. Old Town Branch drains cattle pasture and residential areas of moderate to large lot size. An intermittent tributary flowing into Pond Cove drains cattle pasture and one small housing development. Fecal material contributes both nutrients and microbes to Wilgreen Lake. Both cattle and human fecal material enter the lake as documented by high fecal microbes counts and DNA tracing techniques. DNA tracing methods are limited by our sampling frequency but show that bovine Bacteroides microbes dominate water samples even at loci where suspected septic effluent enters the lake. The nitrogen isotopic composition (d15N) of lake plankton and algae are broadly consistent with nitrogen input from human fecal material, but results are equivocal. We suspect that large amounts of nutrients do enter the lake through septic groundwater input, however, the strong bovine signal clearly suggests deployment of remediation methods that would limit runoff from pastures adjacent to Wilgreen Lake and within its watershed. Such methods include fencing cattle off from drainages and the lake, and planting vegetative buffers around stream and lake margins. Our data alone cannot justify elimination of septic systems by costly implementation of a sewage treatment system

Production of Secondary Organic Aerosol During Aging of Biomass Burning Smoke From Fresh Fuels and Its Relationship to VOC Precursors

After smoke from burning biomass is emitted into the atmosphere, chemical and physical processes change the composition and amount of organic aerosol present in the aged, diluted plume. During the fourth Fire Lab at Missoula Experiment, we performed smog-chamber experiments to investigate formation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) and multiphase oxidation of primary organic aerosol (POA). We simulated atmospheric aging of diluted smoke from a variety of biomass fuels while measuring particle composition using high-resolution aerosol mass spectrometry. We quantified SOA formation using a tracer ion for low-volatility POA as a reference standard (akin to a naturally occurring internal standard). These smoke aging experiments revealed variable organic aerosol (OA) enhancements, even for smoke from similar fuels and aging mechanisms. This variable OA enhancement correlated well with measured differences in the amounts of emitted volatile organic compounds (VOCs) that could subsequently be oxidized to form SOA. For some aging experiments, we were able to predict the SOA production to within a factor of 2 using a fuel-specific VOC emission inventory that was scaled by burn-specific toluene measurements. For fires of coniferous fuels that were dominated by needle burning, volatile biogenic compounds were the dominant precursor class. For wiregrass fires, furans were the dominant SOA precursors. We used a POA tracer ion to calculate the amount of mass lost due to gas-phase oxidation and subsequent volatilization of semivolatile POA. Less than 5% of the POA mass was lost via multiphase oxidation-driven evaporation during up to 2 hr of equivalent atmospheric oxidation

Ecologic Niche Modeling and Potential Reservoirs for Chagas Disease, Mexico.

Ecologic niche modeling may improve our understanding of epidemiologically relevant vector and parasite-reservoir distributions. We used this tool to identify host relationships of Triatoma species implicated in transmission of Chagas disease. Associations have been documented between the protracta complex (Triatoma: Triatominae: Reduviidae) with packrat species (Neotoma spp.), providing an excellent case study for the broader challenge of developing hypotheses of association. Species pairs that were identified coincided exactly with those in previous studies, suggesting that local interactions between Triatoma and Neotoma species and subspecies have implications at a geographic level. Nothing is known about sylvatic associates of T. barberi, which are considered the primary Chagas vector in Mexico; its geographic distribution coincided closely with that of N. mexicana, suggesting interaction. The presence of the species was confirmed in two regions where it had been predicted but not previously collected. This approach may help in identifying Chagas disease risk areas, planning vector-control strategies, and exploring parasite-reservoir associations for other emerging diseases

Phenotypic Plasticity and Contemporary Evolution in Introduced Populations: Evidence from Translocated Populations of White Sands Pupfish (Cyrpinodon tularosa)

Contemporary evolution has been shown in a few studies to be an important component of colonization ability, but seldom have researchers considered whether phenotypic plasticity facilitates directional evolution from the invasion event. In the current study, we evaluated body shape divergence of the New Mexico State-threatened White Sands pupfish (Cyprinodon tularosa) that were introduced to brackish, lacustrine habitats at two different time in the recent past (approximately 30 years and 1 year previously) from the same source population (saline river environment). Pupfish body shape is correlated with environmental salinity: fish from saline habitats are characterized by slender body shapes, whereas fish from fresher, yet brackish springs are deep-bodied. In this study, lacustrine populations consisted of an approximately 30-year old population and several 1-year old populations, all introduced from the same source. The body shape divergence of the 30-year old population was significant and greater than any of the divergences of the 1-year old populations (which were for the most part not significant). Nonetheless, all body shape changes exhibited body deepening in less saline environments. We conclude that phenotypic plasticity potentially facilitates directional evolution of body deepening for introduced pupfish populations