An investigation into linearity with cumulative emissions of the climate and carbon cycle response in HadCM3LC

We investigate the extent to which global mean temperature, precipitation, and the carbon cycle are constrained by cumulative carbon emissions throughout four experiments with a fully coupled climate-carbon cycle model. The two paired experiments adopt contrasting, idealised approaches to climate change mitigation at different action points this century, with total emissions exceeding two trillion tonnes of carbon in the later pair. Their initially diverging cumulative emissions trajectories cross after several decades, before diverging again. We find that their global mean temperatures are, to first order, linear with cumulative emissions, though regional differences in temperature of up to 1.5K exist when cumulative emissions of each pair coincide. Interestingly, although the oceanic precipitation response scales with cumulative emissions, the global precipitation response does not, due to a decrease in precipitation over land above cumulative emissions of around one trillion tonnes of carbon (TtC). Most carbon fluxes and stores are less well constrained by cumulative emissions as they reach two trillion tonnes. The opposing mitigation approaches have different consequences for the Amazon rainforest, which affects the linearity with which the carbon cycle responds to cumulative emissions. Averaged over the two fixed-emissions experiments, the transient response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE) is 1.95 K TtC-1, at the upper end of the IPCC’s range of 0.8-2.5 K TtC-1

Airway obstruction produces widespread sympathoexcitation: role of hypoxia, carotid chemoreceptors, and NTS neurotransmission

Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is the most common respiratory disturbance of sleep and is closely associated to cardiovascular diseases. In humans, apnea increases respiratory effort and elevates muscle sympathetic nerve activity (SNA), but the primary stimulus for the SNA activation has not been identified. We recently developed a model of apnea in rodents using acute airway obstruction. In this study, we employed this model to test whether the elevation in SNA was mediated by hypoxia, carotid chemoreceptors, or neurotransmission in the nucleus tractus solitarius (NTS). In anesthetized, male Sprague-Dawley rats, airway obstruction (20s) increased phrenic nerve activity (PNA), arterial blood pressure (ABP), and lumbar, renal, and splanchnic SNA. The changes in SNA were similar across all three sympathetic nerves. Inactivation of chemoreceptors by hyperoxia (100% O-2) or surgical denervation of carotid chemoreceptors attenuated, but did not eliminate, the changes in SNA and ABP produced by airway obstruction. To interrupt afferent information from carotid chemoreceptor and extracarotid afferents to the hindbrain, airway obstruction was performed before and after NTS microinjection of the GABA(A) agonist muscimol or a cocktail of NMDA and non-NMDA antagonists. Inhibition of NTS neurons or blockade of glutamatergic receptors attenuated the increase in lumbar SNA, splanchnic SNA, renal SNA, and PNA. Collectively, these findings suggest that PNA and SNA responses induced by airway obstruction depend, in part, on chemoreceptors afferents and glutamatergic neurotransmission in the NTS.National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute GrantAmerican Heart Association Established Investigator AwardCoordination of Training of Higher Education Graduate Foundation (CAPES)National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq)Univ Fed Sao Paulo, Dept Physiol, Sao Paulo, SP, BrazilUniv Pittsburgh, Sch Med, Dept Med, Div Renal Electrolyte, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USAUniv Pittsburgh, Sch Med, Hypertens Ctr, Pittsburgh, PA USAUniv Fed Sao Paulo, Dept Physiol, Sao Paulo, SP, BrazilNational Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Grant: R01 HL113270Web of Scienc

Holocene carbon-cycle dynamics based on CO2 trapped in ice at Taylor Dome, Antarctica

A high-resolution ice-core record of atmospheric CO2 concentration over the Holocene epoch shows that the global carbon cycle has not been in steady state during the past 11,000 years. Analysis of the CO2 concentration and carbon stable-isotope records, using a one-dimensional carbon-cycle model,uggests that changes in terrestrial biomass and sea surface temperature were largely responsible for the observed millennial-scale changes of atmospheric CO2 concentrations

Radiative Extinction of Gaseous Spherical Diffusion Flames in Microgravity

Radiative extinction of spherical diffusion flames was investigated experimentally and numerically. The experiments involved microgravity spherical diffusion flames burning ethylene and propane at 0.98 bar. Both normal (fuel flowing into oxidizer) and inverse (oxidizer flowing into fuel) flames were studied, with nitrogen supplied to either the fuel or the oxygen. Flame conditions were chosen to ensure that the flames extinguished within the 2.2 s of available test time; thus extinction occurred during unsteady flame conditions. Diagnostics included color video and thin-filament pyrometry. The computations, which simulated flow from a porous sphere into a quiescent environment, included detailed chemistry, transport and radiation, and yielded transient results. Radiative extinction was observed experimentally and simulated numerically. Extinction time, peak temperature, and radiative loss fraction were found to be independent of flow rate except at very low flow rates. Radiative heat loss was dominated by the combustion products downstream of the flame and was found to scale with flame surface area, not volume. For large transient flames the heat release rate also scaled with surface area and thus the radiative loss fraction was largely independent of flow rate. Peak temperatures at extinction onset were about 1100 K, which is significantly lower than for kinetic extinction. One observation of this work is that while radiative heat losses can drive transient extinction, this is not because radiative losses are increasing with time (flame size) but rather because the heat release rate is falling off as the temperature drops

A Computational Investigation of Sooting Limits of Spherical Diffusion Flames

Limiting conditions for soot particle inception in spherical diffusion flames were investigated numerically. The flames were modeled using a one-dimensional, time accurate diffusion flame code with detailed chemistry and transport and an optically thick radiation model. Seventeen normal and inverse flames were considered, covering a wide range of stoichiometric mixture fraction, adiabatic flame temperature, and residence time. These flames were previously observed to reach their sooting limits after 2 s of microgravity. Sooting-limit diffusion flames with residence times longer than 200 ms were found to have temperatures near 1190 K where C/O = 0.6, whereas flames with shorter residence times required increased temperatures. Acetylene was found to be a reasonable surrogate for soot precursor species in these flames, having peak mole fractions of about 0.01

A Computational and Experimental Study of Coflow Laminar Methane/Air Diffusion Flames: Effects of Fuel Dilution, Inlet Velocity, and Gravity

The influences of fuel dilution, inlet velocity, and gravity on the shape and structure of laminar coflow CH4-air diffusion flames were investigated computationally and experimentally. A series of nitrogen-diluted flames measured in the Structure and Liftoff in Combustion Experiment (SLICE) on board the International Space Station was assessed numerically under microgravity (mu g) and normal gravity (1g) conditions with CH4 mole fraction ranging from 0.4 to 1.0 and average inlet velocity ranging from 23 to 90 cm/s. Computationally, the MC-Smooth vorticity-velocity formulation was employed to describe the reactive gaseous mixture, and soot evolution was modeled by sectional aerosol equations. The governing equations and boundary conditions were discretized on a two-dimensional computational domain by finite differences, and the resulting set of fully coupled, strongly nonlinear equations was solved simultaneously at all points using a damped, modified Newton's method. Experimentally, flame shape and soot temperature were determined by flame emission images recorded by a digital color camera. Very good agreement between computation and measurement was obtained, and the conclusions were as follows. (1) Buoyant and nonbuoyant luminous flame lengths are proportional to the mass flow rate of the fuel mixture; computed and measured nonbuoyant flames are noticeably longer than their 1g counterparts; the effect of fuel dilution on flame shape (i.e., flame length and flame radius) is negligible when the flame shape is normalized by the methane flow rate. (2) Buoyancy-induced reduction of the flame radius through radially inward convection near the flame front is demonstrated. (3) Buoyant and nonbuoyant flame structure is mainly controlled by the fuel mass flow rate, and the effects from fuel dilution and inlet velocity are secondary

A Numerical and Experimental Study of Coflow Laminar Diffusion Flames: Effects of Gravity and Inlet Velocity

In this work, the influence of gravity, fuel dilution, and inlet velocity on the structure, stabilization, and sooting behavior of laminar coflow methane-air diffusion flames was investigated both computationally and experimentally. A series of flames measured in the Structure and Liftoff in Combustion Experiment (SLICE) was assessed numerically under microgravity and normal gravity conditions with the fuel stream CH4 mole fraction ranging from 0.4 to 1.0. Computationally, the MC-Smooth vorticity-velocity formulation of the governing equations was employed to describe the reactive gaseous mixture; the soot evolution process was considered as a classical aerosol dynamics problem and was represented by the sectional aerosol equations. Since each flame is axisymmetric, a two-dimensional computational domain was employed, where the grid on the axisymmetric domain was a nonuniform tensor product mesh. The governing equations and boundary conditions were discretized on the mesh by a nine-point finite difference stencil, with the convective terms approximated by a monotonic upwind scheme and all other derivatives approximated by centered differences. The resulting set of fully coupled, strongly nonlinear equations was solved simultaneously using a damped, modified Newton's method and a nested Bi-CGSTAB linear algebra solver. Experimentally, the flame shape, size, lift-off height, and soot temperature were determined by flame emission images recorded by a digital camera, and the soot volume fraction was quantified through an absolute light calibration using a thermocouple. For a broad spectrum of flames in microgravity and normal gravity, the computed and measured flame quantities (e.g., temperature profile, flame shape, lift-off height, and soot volume fraction) were first compared to assess the accuracy of the numerical model. After its validity was established, the influence of gravity, fuel dilution, and inlet velocity on the structure, stabilization, and sooting tendency of laminar coflow methane-air diffusion flames was explored further by examining quantities derived from the computational results

Effects of C/O Ratio and Temperature on Sooting Limits of Spherical Diffusion Flames

Limiting conditions for soot particle inception in spherical diffusion flames were investigated numerically. The flames were modeled using a one-dimensional, time accurate diffusion flame code with detailed chemistry and transport and an optically thick radiation model. Seventeen normal and inverse flames were considered, covering a wide range of stoichiometric mixture fraction, adiabatic flame temperature, residence time and scalar dissipation rate. These flames were previously observed to reach their sooting limits after 2 s of microgravity. Sooting-limit diffusion flames with scalar dissipation rate lower than 2/s were found to have temperatures near 1400 K where C/O = 0.51, whereas flames with greater scalar dissipation rate required increased temperatures. This finding was valid across a broad range of fuel and oxidizer compositions and convection directions

Enhanced Australian carbon sink despite increased wildfire during the 21st century

Climate projections show Australia becoming significantly warmer during the 21st century, and precipitation decreasing over much of the continent. Such changes are conventionally considered to increase wildfire risk. Nevertheless, we show that burnt area increases in southern Australia, but decreases in northern Australia. Overall the projected increase in fire is small (0.72–1.31% of land area, depending on the climate scenario used), and does not cause a decrease in carbon storage. In fact, carbon storage increases by 3.7–5.6 Pg C (depending on the climate scenario used). Using a process-based model of vegetation dynamics, vegetation–fire interactions and carbon cycling, we show increased fire promotes a shift to more fire-adapted trees in wooded areas and their encroachment into grasslands, with an overall increase in forested area of 3.9–11.9%. Both changes increase carbon uptake and storage. The increase in woody vegetation increases the amount of coarse litter, which decays more slowly than fine litter hence leading to a relative reduction in overall heterotrophic respiration, further reducing carbon losses. Direct CO2 effects increase woody cover, water-use efficiency and productivity, such that carbon storage is increased by 8.5–14.8 Pg C compared to simulations in which CO2 is held constant at modern values. CO2 effects tend to increase burnt area, fire fluxes and therefore carbon losses in arid areas, but increase vegetation density and reduce burnt area in wooded areas

Ideas and perspectives: Beyond model evaluation – combining experiments and models to advance terrestrial ecosystem science

Ecosystem manipulative experiments are a powerful tool to understand terrestrial ecosystem responses to global change because they measure real responses in real ecosystems and yield insights into causal relationships. However, their scope is limited in space and time due to cost and labour intensity. This makes generalising results from such experiments difficult, which creates a conceptual gap between local-scale process understanding and global-scale future predictions. Recent efforts have seen results from such experiments used in combination with dynamic global vegetation models, most commonly to evaluate model predictions under global change drivers. However, there is much more potential in combining models and experiments. Here, we discuss the value and potential of a workflow for using ecosystem experiments together with process-based models to enhance the potential of both. We suggest that models can be used prior to the start of an experiment to generate hypotheses, identify data needs, and in general guide experimental design. Models, when adequately constrained with observations, can also predict variables which are difficult to measure frequently or at all, and together with the data they can provide a more complete picture of ecosystem states. Finally, models can be used to help generalise the experimental results in space and time, by providing a framework in which process understanding derived from site-level experiments can be incorporated. We also discuss the potential for using manipulative experiments together with models in formalised model–data integration frameworks for parameter estimation and model selection, a path made possible by the increasing number of ecosystem experiments and diverse observation streams. The ideas presented here can provide a roadmap to future experiment–model studies.</p