Non-uniform tropical forest responses to the ‘Columbian Exchange’ in the Neotropics and Asia-Pacific

It has been suggested that Iberian arrival in the Americas in 1492 and subsequent dramatic depopulation led to forest regrowth that had global impacts on atmospheric CO2 concentrations and surface temperatures. Despite tropical forests representing the most important terrestrial carbon stock globally, systematic examination of historical afforestation in these habitats in the Neotropics is lacking. Additionally, there has been no assessment of similar depopulation–afforestation dynamics in other parts of the global tropics that were incorporated into the Spanish Empire. Here, we compile and semi-quantitatively analyse pollen records from the regions claimed by the Spanish in the Atlantic and Pacific to provide pan-tropical insights into European colonial impacts on forest dynamics. Our results suggest that periods of afforestation over the past millennium varied across space and time and depended on social, economic and biogeographic contexts. We argue that this reveals the unequal and divergent origins of the Anthropocene as a socio-political and biophysical process, highlighting the need for higher-resolution, targeted analyses to fully elucidate pre-colonial and colonial era human–tropical landscape interactions.Results - Neotropics. - Spanish East Indies. Discussion Methods - Neotropics data preparation. - Spanish East Indies data preparation. - Generalized additive modelling of palaeoecological data. - Analysis of afforestation signal over 2,000 years. - Reporting Summary

981-46 Impact of a Comprehensive Management Program on the Hospitalization Rate for Patients with Advanced Heart Failure

Patients with advanced heart failure have a course that is often characterized by frequent hospitalizations and progressive deterioration. These patients are commonly referred to specialized centers for consideration of heart transplantation (Tx). To assess the impact of the changes in therapy made in conjunction with heart transplantation evaluation on patient outcomes, we assessed the hospitalization rate and patient's functional status in the 6 months prior to referral compared to the 6 months after referral. Since 1/91, 214 patients were evaluated, accepted for Tx, and discharged having undergone adjustments in medical therapy and a comprehensive patient education program. At time of referral patients had mean LVEF 0.21, NYHA class 3.3, VO2 max 11.0ml/kg, and had undergone a total of 429 hospitalizations in the previous 6 months. During evaluation patients had their ACE inhibitor dose increased by a mean 91.5mg/day of captopril or the equivalent, were diuresed a mean 4.2 liters, were placed on a flexible regimen of loop diuretics, and were counseled on dietary management and home based progressive aerobic exercise. After 6 months of follow-up there were only 63 hospitalizations required (mean hospitalization rate per patient over the 6 months pre-evaluation 2.00±1.45 vs post-evaluation 0.29±0.53 p<0.00001). Patient's NYHA class improved to 2.4 (p<0.0001) and VO2 max increased to 15.2 (p<0.001). Excluding the 12 elective status Tx, 14 urgent status Tx, and 9 deaths within 6 months yielded similar results (344 pre vs 34 post-evaluation hospitalizations). 64 patients (30%) improved their functional status to the point that transplantation was deferred in favor of sustained medical therapy.Referral to a heart failure specialty program is associated with a dramatic occurred between day 10±1 and 3 month. 4 patients died after hospital discharge (no death directly related to thromboembolic disease). Thus no higher risk of PE can be seen in patients with free floating prox-DVT and anticoagulant therapy should be efficient to prevent recurrent PE in such patient

DIAMOND (DIgital Alcohol Management ON Demand): a mixed methods feasibility RCT and embedded process evaluation of a digital health intervention to reduce hazardous and harmful alcohol use

BACKGROUND: “Hazardous and harmful” drinkers make up approximately 23 % of the adult population in England. However, only around 10 % of these people access specialist care, such as face-to-face extended brief treatment in community alcohol services. This may be due to stigma, difficulty accessing services during working hours, a shortage of trained counsellors and limited provision of services in many places. Web-based alcohol treatment programmes may overcome these barriers and may better suit people who are reluctant or unable to attend face-to-face services, but there is a gap in the evidence base for the acceptability, effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of these programmes compared with treatment as usual (TAU) in community alcohol services. This study aims investigate the feasibility of all parts of a randomised controlled trial (RCT) of a psychologically informed web-based alcohol treatment programme called Healthy Living for People who use Alcohol (HeLP-Alcohol) versus TAU in community alcohol services, e.g. recruitment and retention, online data collection methods, and the use and acceptability of the intervention to participants. METHODS: A feasibility RCT delivered in north London community alcohol services, comparing HeLP-Alcohol with TAU. Potential participants are aged ≥18 years referred or self-referred for hazardous and harmful use of alcohol, without co-morbidities or other complex problems. The main purpose of this study is to demonstrate the feasibility of recruiting participants to the study and will test online methods for collecting baseline demographic and outcome questionnaire data, randomising participants and collecting 3-month follow-up data. The acceptability of this intervention will be measured by recruitment and retention rates, automated log-in data collection and an online service satisfaction questionnaire. The feasibility of using tailored text message, email or phone prompt to maintain engagement with the intervention will also be explored. RESULTS: Results of the study will inform a definitive Phase 3 RCT

Unintended consequences of patient online access to health records: a qualitative study in UK primary care

Background: Health systems around the world are seeking to harness digital tools to promote patient autonomy and increase the efficiency of care. One example of this policy in England is online patient access to full medical records in primary care. Since April 2019, all NHS England patients have had the right to access their full medical record prospectively, and full record access has been the “default position” since April 2020. / Aim: To identify and understand the unintended consequences of online patient access their medical record. / Design and Setting: Qualitative interview study in 10 general practices in South West and North West England. / Method: Semi-structured individual interviews with 13 patients and 16 general practice staff with experience of patient online access to health records. / Results: Online access generated unintended consequences that negatively impacted patients’ understanding of their health care, for example patients discovering surprising information or information that was difficult to interpret. Online access impacted GPs’ documentation practices, such as when GPs pre-emptively attempted to minimise potential misunderstandings to aid patient understanding of their health care, in other cases, negatively impacting the quality of the records and patient safety when GPs avoided documenting their speculations or concerns. Contrary to assumptions that practice workload would be reduced, online access introduced extra work, such as managing and monitoring access and taking measures to prevent possible harm to patients. / Conclusion: The unintended consequences described by both staff and patients show that to achieve the intended consequences set out in NHS policy additional work is necessary to prepare records for sharing and prepare patients about what to expect. It is crucial that practices are adequately supported and resourced to manage the unintended consequences of online access now that it is the default position

Translational neuroscience: the state of the nation (a PhD student perspective)

Many brain disorders are currently untreatable. It has been suggested that taking a ‘translational’ approach to neuroscientific research might change this. We discuss what ‘translational neuroscience’ is and argue for the need to expand the traditional translational model if we are to make further advances in treating brain disorders

Assessing prognosis and prediction of treatment response in early rheumatoid arthritis: systematic reviews

BACKGROUND: Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic, debilitating disease associated with reduced quality of life and substantial costs. It is unclear which tests and assessment tools allow the best assessment of prognosis in people with early RA and whether or not variables predict the response of patients to different drug treatments. OBJECTIVE: To systematically review evidence on the use of selected tests and assessment tools in patients with early RA (1) in the evaluation of a prognosis (review 1) and (2) as predictive markers of treatment response (review 2). DATA SOURCES: Electronic databases (e.g. MEDLINE, EMBASE, The Cochrane Library, Web of Science Conference Proceedings; searched to September 2016), registers, key websites, hand-searching of reference lists of included studies and key systematic reviews and contact with experts. STUDY SELECTION: Review 1 - primary studies on the development, external validation and impact of clinical prediction models for selected outcomes in adult early RA patients. Review 2 - primary studies on the interaction between selected baseline covariates and treatment (conventional and biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs) on salient outcomes in adult early RA patients. RESULTS: Review 1 - 22 model development studies and one combined model development/external validation study reporting 39 clinical prediction models were included. Five external validation studies evaluating eight clinical prediction models for radiographic joint damage were also included. c-statistics from internal validation ranged from 0.63 to 0.87 for radiographic progression (different definitions, six studies) and 0.78 to 0.82 for the Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ). Predictive performance in external validations varied considerably. Three models [(1) Active controlled Study of Patients receiving Infliximab for the treatment of Rheumatoid arthritis of Early onset (ASPIRE) C-reactive protein (ASPIRE CRP), (2) ASPIRE erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ASPIRE ESR) and (3) Behandelings Strategie (BeSt)] were externally validated using the same outcome definition in more than one population. Results of the random-effects meta-analysis suggested substantial uncertainty in the expected predictive performance of models in a new sample of patients. Review 2 - 12 studies were identified. Covariates examined included anti-citrullinated protein/peptide anti-body (ACPA) status, smoking status, erosions, rheumatoid factor status, C-reactive protein level, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, swollen joint count (SJC), body mass index and vascularity of synovium on power Doppler ultrasound (PDUS). Outcomes examined included erosions/radiographic progression, disease activity, physical function and Disease Activity Score-28 remission. There was statistical evidence to suggest that ACPA status, SJC and PDUS status at baseline may be treatment effect modifiers, but not necessarily that they are prognostic of response for all treatments. Most of the results were subject to considerable uncertainty and were not statistically significant. LIMITATIONS: The meta-analysis in review 1 was limited by the availability of only a small number of external validation studies. Studies rarely investigated the interaction between predictors and treatment. SUGGESTED RESEARCH PRIORITIES: Collaborative research (including the use of individual participant data) is needed to further develop and externally validate the clinical prediction models. The clinical prediction models should be validated with respect to individual treatments. Future assessments of treatment by covariate interactions should follow good statistical practice. CONCLUSIONS: Review 1 - uncertainty remains over the optimal prediction model(s) for use in clinical practice. Review 2 - in general, there was insufficient evidence that the effect of treatment depended on baseline characteristics. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42016042402. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme

MINLO: Multi-scale improved NLO

In the present work we consider the assignment of the factorization and renormalization scales in hadron collider processes with associated jet production, at next-to-leading order (NLO) in perturbation theory. We propose a simple, definite prescription to this end, including Sudakov form factors to consistently account for the distinct kinematic scales occuring in such collisions. The scheme yields results that are accurate at NLO and, for a large class of observables, it resums to all orders the large logarithms that arise from kinematic configurations involving disparate scales. In practical terms the method is most simply understood as an NLO extension of the matrix element reweighting procedure employed in tree level matrix element-parton shower merging algorithms. By way of a proof-of-concept, we apply the method to Higgs and Z boson production in association with up to two jets.Comment: 27 pages, 17 figure

Tidal Heating: Lessons from Io and the Jovian System (Report from the KISS Workshop)

Summary of the Keck Institute for Space Studies workshop entitled "Tidal Heating: Lessons from Io and the Jovian System," held on October 15-19, 2018