The competition effect in business cycles : [Version 21 März 2012]

How do changes in market structure affect the US business cycle? We estimate a monetary DSGE model with endogenous rm/product entry and a translog expenditure function by Bayesian methods. The dynamics of net business formation allow us to identify the 'competition effect', by which desired price markups and inflation decrease when entry rises. We find that a 1 percent increase in the number of competitors lowers desired markups by 0.18 percent. Most of the cyclical variability in inflation is driven by markup fluctuations due to sticky prices or exogenous shocks rather than endogenous changes in desired markups

Is euro area lowflation here to stay ? Insights from a time-varying parameter model with survey data. National Bank of Belgium, Working Paper No. 355

Inflation has been persistently weak in the euro area despite the economic recovery since 2013. We investigate the sources behind this protracted low inflation by building a time-varying parameter model that jointly explains the dynamics of inflation and inflation expectations from the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters. We find that the inclusion of survey data strengthens the view that low inflation was mainly due to cyclical drivers. In particular, the model with survey expectations finds a more muted decline of trend inflation in recent years and a larger degree of economic slack. The impact of economic slack and import prices on inflation is found to have increased in recent years. We also find that survey expectations have become less persistent over the financial crisis period, and that including survey data improves the model’s out-of-sample forecasting performance

Domestication of Campylobacter jejuni NCTC 11168

Reference and type strains of well-known bacteria have been a cornerstone of microbiology research for decades. The sharing of well-characterized isolates among laboratories has run in parallel with research efforts and enhanced the reproducibility of experiments, leading to a wealth of knowledge about trait variation in different species and the underlying genetics. Campylobacter jejuni strain NCTC 11168, deposited at the National Collection of Type Cultures in 1977, has been adopted widely as a reference strain by researchers worldwide and was the first Campylobacter for which the complete genome was published (in 2000). In this study, we collected 23 C . jejuni NCTC 11168 reference isolates from laboratories across the UK and compared variation in simple laboratory phenotypes with genetic variation in sequenced genomes. Putatively identical isolates, identified previously to have aberrant phenotypes, varied by up to 281 SNPs (in 15 genes) compared to the most recent reference strain. Isolates also display considerable phenotype variation in motility, morphology, growth at 37 °C, invasion of chicken and human cell lines, and susceptibility to ampicillin. This study provides evidence of ongoing evolutionary change among C. jejuni isolates as they are cultured in different laboratories and highlights the need for careful consideration of genetic variation within laboratory reference strains. This article contains data hosted by Microreact

Entry and markup dynamics in an estimated business cycle model

How do changes in market structure affect the US business cycle? We estimate a monetary DSGE model with endogenous firm/product entry and a translog expenditure function by Bayesian methods. The dynamics of net business formation allow us to identify the extent to which desired price markups and inflation decrease when entry rises. We find that a 1% increase in the number of competitors lowers desired markups by 0.17%. While markup fluctuations due to sticky prices or exogenous shocks account for a large proportion of US inflation variability, endogenous changes in desired markups also play a non-negligible role.status: publishe

The competition effect in business cycles : [Version 9 März 2012]

How do changes in market structure affect the US business cycle? We estimate a monetary DSGE model with endogenous rm/product entry and a translog expenditure function by Bayesian methods. The dynamics of net business formation allow us to identify the 'competition effect', by which desired price markups and inflation decrease when entry rises. We find that a 1 percent increase in the number of competitors lowers desired markups by 0.18 percent. Most of the cyclical variability in inflation is driven by markup fluctuations due to sticky prices or exogenous shocks rather than endogenous changes in desired markups

Is euro area lowflation here to stay? Insights from a time‐varying parameter model with survey data

We build a time-varying parameter model that jointly explains the dynamics of euro area inflation and inflation expectations. Our goal is to explain the weak inflation during the post-financial crisis economic recovery of 2013-2019. We find that the inclusion of survey data leads to a more muted decline of trend inflation in recent years and more economic slack. Moreover, the impact of economic slack and import prices on inflation has recently strengthened, and survey respondents updated their beliefs more actively over the financial crisis period. Our model compares well against restricted specifications in terms of forecast performance and marginal likelihood

Entry and markup dynamics in an estimated business cycle model

How do changes in market structure affect the US business cycle? We estimate a monetary DSGE model with endogenous firm/product entry and a translog expenditure function by Bayesian methods. The dynamics of net business formation allow us to identify the extent to which desired price markups and inflation decrease when entry rises. We find that a 1 percent increase in the number of competitors lowers desired markups by 0.17 percent. While markup fluctuations due to sticky prices or exogenous shocks account for a large proportion of US inflation variability, endogenous changes in desired markups also play a non-negligible role.status: publishe