Unusual behaviour of Dickey-Fuller tests in the presence of trend mis-specification

This paper analyses the properties of Dickey-Fuller (1979) (DF) unit root tests in the presence of trend mis-specification. It is shown that while the performance of the DF coefficient test is as expected, the DF test in its t-ratio form exhibits unusual behaviour. In particular it is found that the power of the test increases as the autoregressive parameter approaches 1. Interestingly, this increased power is not accompanied by oversizing.DF test

Electrostatics in the Stability and Misfolding of the Prion Protein: Salt Bridges, Self-Energy, and Solvation

Using a recently developed mesoscopic theory of protein dielectrics, we have calculated the salt bridge energies, total residue electrostatic potential energies, and transfer energies into a low dielectric amyloid-like phase for 12 species and mutants of the prion protein. Salt bridges and self energies play key roles in stabilizing secondary and tertiary structural elements of the prion protein. The total electrostatic potential energy of each residue was found to be invariably stabilizing. Residues frequently found to be mutated in familial prion disease were among those with the largest electrostatic energies. The large barrier to charged group desolvation imposes regional constraints on involvement of the prion protein in an amyloid aggregate, resulting in an electrostatic amyloid recruitment profile that favours regions of sequence between alpha helix 1 and beta strand 2, the middles of helices 2 and 3, and the region N-terminal to alpha helix 1. We found that the stabilization due to salt bridges is minimal among the proteins studied for disease-susceptible human mutants of prion protein

Valuation Accuracy: Reconciling the Timing of the Valuation and Sale

Carsberg (2002) suggested that the periodic valuation accuracy studies undertaken by, amongst others, IPD/Drivers Jonas (2003) should be undertaken every year and be sponsored by the RICS, which acts as the self-regulating body for valuations in the UK. This paper does not address the wider issues concerning the nature of properties which are sold and whether the sale prices are influenced by prior valuations, but considers solely the technical issues concerning the timing of the valuation and sales data. This study uses valuations and sales data from the Investment Property Databank UK Monthly Index to attempt to identify the date that sale data is divulged to valuers. This information will inform accuracy studies that use a cut-off date as to the closeness of valuations to sales completion date as a yardstick for excluding data from the analysis. It will also, assuming valuers are informed quickly of any agreed sales, help to determine the actual sale agreed date rather than the completion date, which includes a period of due diligence between when the sale is agreed and its completion. Valuations should be updated to this date, rather than the formal completion date, if a reliable measure of valuation accuracy is to be determined. An accuracy study is then undertaken using a variety of updating periods and the differences between the results are examined. The paper concludes that the sale only becomes known to valuers in the month prior to the sale taking place and that this assumes either that sales due diligence procedures are shortening or valuers are not told quickly of agreed sale prices. Studies that adopt a four-month cut-off date for any valuations compared to sales completion dates are over cautious, and this could be reduced to two months without compromising the data.

Cosmic Perturbations Through the Cyclic Ages

We analyze the evolution of cosmological perturbations in the cyclic model, paying particular attention to their behavior and interplay over multiple cycles. Our key results are: (1) galaxies and large scale structure present in one cycle are generated by the quantum fluctuations in the preceding cycle without interference from perturbations or structure generated in earlier cycles and without interfering with structure generated in later cycles; (2) the ekpyrotic phase, an epoch of gentle contraction with equation of state $w\gg 1$ preceding the hot big bang, makes the universe homogeneous, isotropic and flat within any given observer's horizon; and, (3) although the universe is uniform within each observer's horizon, the global structure of the cyclic universe is more complex, owing to the effects of superhorizon length perturbations, and cannot be described in a uniform Friedmann-Robertson-Walker picture. In particular, we show that the ekpyrotic phase is so effective in smoothing, flattening and isotropizing the universe within the horizon that this phase alone suffices to solve the horizon and flatness problems even without an extended period of dark energy domination (a kind of low energy inflation). Instead, the cyclic model rests on a genuinely novel, non-inflationary mechanism (ekpyrotic contraction) for resolving the classic cosmological conundrums.Comment: 28 pages, 5 figures, 1 tabl

Test bed experiments for various telerobotic system characteristics and configurations

Dexterous manipulation and grasping in telerobotic systems depends on the integration of high-performance sensors, displays, actuators and controls into systems in which careful consideration has been given to human perception and tolerance. Research underway at the Wisconsin Center for Space Automation and Robotics (WCSAR) has the objective of enhancing the performance of these systems and their components, and quantifying the effects of the many electrical, mechanical, control, and human factors that affect their performance. This will lead to a fundamental understanding of performance issues which will in turn allow designers to evaluate sensor, actuator, display, and control technologies with respect to generic measures of dexterous performance. As part of this effort, an experimental test bed was developed which has telerobotic components with exceptionally high fidelity in master/slave operation. A Telerobotic Performance Analysis System has also been developed which allows performance to be determined for various system configurations and electro-mechanical characteristics. Both this performance analysis system and test bed experiments are described

Appraisal-based indices

The characteristics of real estate markets make it difficult to construct price-based indices of investment performance. Appraisal-based indices have emerged as a substitute and are now produced for real estate investment markets across the world. This chapter reviews the types of appraisal-based indices and the main performance measures that are produced from them. It also reviews evidence on the differences between appraisals and prices, and explores why appraisal indices are perceived to lag and smooth underlying market movements

Epidemiological geomatics in evaluation of mine risk education in Afghanistan: introducing population weighted raster maps

Evaluation of mine risk education in Afghanistan used population weighted raster maps as an evaluation tool to assess mine education performance, coverage and costs. A stratified last-stage random cluster sample produced representative data on mine risk and exposure to education. Clusters were weighted by the population they represented, rather than the land area. A "friction surface" hooked the population weight into interpolation of cluster-specific indicators. The resulting population weighted raster contours offer a model of the population effects of landmine risks and risk education. Five indicator levels ordered the evidence from simple description of the population-weighted indicators (level 0), through risk analysis (levels 1–3) to modelling programme investment and local variations (level 4). Using graphic overlay techniques, it was possible to metamorphose the map, portraying the prediction of what might happen over time, based on the causality models developed in the epidemiological analysis. Based on a lattice of local site-specific predictions, each cluster being a small universe, the "average" prediction was immediately interpretable without losing the spatial complexity

Explaining enhanced logical consistency during decision making in autism

The emotional responses elicited by the way options are framed often results in lack of logical consistency in human decision making. In this study, we investigated subjects with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) using a financial task in which the monetary prospects were presented as either loss or gain. We report both behavioral evidence that ASD subjects show a reduced susceptibility to the framing effect and psycho-physiological evidence that they fail to incorporate emotional context into the decision-making process. On this basis, we suggest that this insensitivity to contextual frame, although enhancing choice consistency in ASD, may also underpin core deficits in this disorder. These data highlight both benefits and costs arising from multiple decision processes in human cognition

Frobenius groups and frobenius kernels

Two major properties of Frobenius kernels that are presented in this paper are that Frobenius kernels are unique and that they are nilpotent. Once establishing the main properties of Frobenius groups and their kernels, I will give applications of Frobenius groups and their kernels in the field of character theory and general group theory