London measure of Unplanned Pregnancy: guidance for its use as an outcome measure

Background: The London Measure of Unplanned Pregnancy (LMUP) is a psychometrically validated measure of the degree of intention of a current or recent pregnancy. The LMUP is increasingly being used worldwide, and can be used to evaluate family planning or ­preconception care programs. However, beyond recommending the use of the full LMUP scale, there is no published guidance on how to use the LMUP as an outcome measure. Ordinal logistic regression has been recommended informally, but studies published to date have all used binary logistic regression and dichotomized the scale at different cut points. There is thus a need for evidence-based guidance to provide a standardized methodology for multivariate analysis and to enable comparison of results. This paper makes recommendations for the regression method for analysis of the LMUP as an outcome measure. Materials and methods: Data collected from 4,244 pregnant women in Malawi were used to compare five regression methods: linear, logistic with two cut points, and ordinal logistic with either the full or grouped LMUP score. The recommendations were then tested on the original UK LMUP data. Results: There were small but no important differences in the findings across the regression models. Logistic regression resulted in the largest loss of information, and assumptions were violated for the linear and ordinal logistic regression. Consequently, robust standard errors were used for linear regression and a partial proportional odds ordinal logistic regression model attempted. The latter could only be fitted for grouped LMUP score. Conclusion: We recommend the linear regression model with robust standard errors to make full use of the LMUP score when analyzed as an outcome measure. Ordinal logistic regression could be considered, but a partial proportional odds model with grouped LMUP score may be required. Logistic regression is the least-favored option, due to the loss of information. For logistic regression, the cut point for un/planned pregnancy should be between nine and ten. These recommendations will standardize the analysis of LMUP data and enhance comparability of results across studies

VarSite: disease variants and protein structure

VarSite is a web server mapping known disease-associated variants from UniProt and ClinVar, together with natural variants from gnomAD, onto protein 3D structures in the Protein Data Bank (PDB). The analyses are primarily image-based and provide both an overview for each human protein, as well as a report for any specific variant of interest. The information can be useful in assessing whether a given variant might be pathogenic or benign. The structural annotations for each position in the protein include protein secondary structure, interactions with ligand, metal, DNA/RNA, or other protein, and various measures of a given variant's possible impact on the protein's function. The 3D locations of the disease-associated variants can be viewed interactively via the 3dmol.js JavaScript viewer, as well as in RasMol and PyMOL. Users can search for specific variants, or sets of variants, by providing the DNA coordinates of the base change(s) of interest. Additionally, various agglomerative analyses are given, such as the mapping of disease and natural variants onto specific Pfam or CATH domains. The server is freely accessible to all at: https://www.ebi.ac.uk/thornton-srv/databases/VarSite. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

Antipyretic medication for a feverish planet

This is the final version. Available on open access from Springer Nature via the DOI in this record. University of Genev

Impact of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on access to contraception and pregnancy intentions: a national prospective cohort study of the UK population

OBJECTIVE: Evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on access to contraception and pregnancy intentions. DESIGN: Nationwide prospective cohort study. SETTING: United Kingdom. PARTICIPANTS: Women in the UK who were pregnant between 24 May and 31 December 2020. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Access to contraception and level of pregnancy intentions, using the London Measure of Unplanned Pregnancy (LMUP) in women whose last menstrual period was before or after 1 April 2020. While the official date of the first UK lockdown was 23 March, we used 1 April to ensure that those in the post-lockdown group would have faced restrictions in the month that they conceived. RESULTS: A total of 9784 women enrolled in the cohort: 4114 (42.0%) conceived pre-lockdown and 5670 (58.0%) conceived post-lockdown. The proportion of women reporting difficulties accessing contraception was higher in those who conceived after lockdown (n=366, 6.5% vs n=25, 0.6%, p<0.001) and continued to rise from March to September 2020. After adjusting for confounders, women were nine times more likely to report difficulty accessing contraception after lockdown (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 8.96, 95% CI 5.89 to 13.63, p<0.001). There is a significant difference in the levels of pregnancy planning, with higher proportions of unplanned (n=119, 2.1% vs n=55, 1.3%) and ambivalent pregnancies (n=1163, 20.5% vs n=663, 16.1%) and lower proportions of planned pregnancies (n=4388, 77.4% vs n=3396, 82.5%) in the post-lockdown group (p<0.001). After adjusting for confounders, women who conceived after lockdown were still significantly less likely to have a planned pregnancy (aOR 0.88, 95% CI 0.79 to 0.98, p=0.025). CONCLUSIONS: Access to contraception in the UK has become harder during the COVID-19 pandemic and the proportion of unplanned pregnancies has almost doubled

Interventions to prevent maternal obesity before conception, during pregnancy, and post partum

Prevention of obesity in women of reproductive age is widely recognised to be important both for their health and for that of their offspring. Weight-control interventions, including drug treatment, in pregnant women who are obese or overweight have not had sufficient impact on pregnancy and birth outcomes, which suggests that the focus for intervention should include preconception or post-partum periods. Further research is needed into the long-term effects of nutritional and lifestyle interventions before conception. To improve preconception health, an integrated approach, including pregnancy prevention, planning, and preparation is needed, involving more than the primary health-care sector and adopting an ecological approach to risk reduction that addresses personal, societal, and cultural influences. Raising awareness of the importance of good health in the period before pregnancy will require a new social movement: combining bottom-up mobilisation of individuals and communities with a top-down approach from policy initiatives. Interventions to reduce or prevent obesity before conception and during pregnancy could contribute substantially to achievement of the global Sustainable Development Goals, in terms of health, wellbeing, productivity, and equity in current and future generations

Pattern scaling using ClimGen: monthly-resolution future climate scenarios including changes in the variability of precipitation

Development, testing and example applications of the pattern-scaling approach for generating future climate change projections are reported here, with a focus on a particular software application called “ClimGen”. A number of innovations have been implemented, including using exponential and logistic functions of global-mean temperature to represent changes in local precipitation and cloud cover, and interpolation from climate model grids to a finer grid while taking into account land-sea contrasts in the climate change patterns. Of particular significance is a new approach for incorporating changes in the inter-annual variability of monthly precipitation simulated by climate models. This is achieved by diagnosing simulated changes in the shape of the gamma distribution of monthly precipitation totals, applying the pattern-scaling approach to estimate changes in the shape parameter under a future scenario, and then perturbing sequences of observed precipitation anomalies so that their distribution changes according to the projected change in the shape parameter. The approach cannot represent changes to the structure of climate timeseries (e.g. changed autocorrelation or teleconnection patterns) were they to occur, but is shown here to be more successful at representing changes in low precipitation extremes than previous pattern-scaling methods

Emergency contraception from the pharmacy 20 years on:a mystery shopper study

Background Emergency contraception (EC) was approved in the UK as a pharmacy medicine for purchase without prescription in 1991. Twenty years later we conducted a study to characterise routine practice pharmacy provision of EC. Study design Mystery shopper study of 30 pharmacies in Edinburgh, Dundee and London participating in a clinical trial of contraception after EC. Methods Mystery shoppers, aged ≥16 years, followed a standard scenario requesting EC. After the pharmacy visit, they completed a proforma recording the duration of the consultation, where it took place, and whether advice was given to them about the importance of ongoing contraception after EC. Results Fifty-five mystery shopper visits were conducted. The median reported duration of the consultation with the pharmacist was 6 (range 1–18) min. Consultations took place in a private room in 34 cases (62%) and at the shop counter in the remainder. In 27 cases (49%) women received advice about ongoing contraception. Eleven women (20%) left the pharmacy without EC due to lack of supplies or of a trained pharmacist. Most women were generally positive about the consultation. Conclusions While availability of EC from UK pharmacies has undoubtedly improved access, the necessity to have a consultation, however helpful, with a pharmacist introduces delays and around one in five of our mystery shoppers left without getting EC. Consultations in private are not always possible and little advice is given about ongoing contraception. It is time to make EC available without a pharmacy consultation

Increasing Short-Stay Unplanned Hospital Admissions among Children in England; Time Trends Analysis '97-'06

BACKGROUND: Timely care by general practitioners in the community keeps children out of hospital and provides better continuity of care. Yet in the UK, access to primary care has diminished since 2004 when changes in general practitioners' contracts enabled them to 'opt out' of providing out-of-hours care and since then unplanned pediatric hospital admission rates have escalated, particularly through emergency departments. We hypothesised that any increase in isolated short stay admissions for childhood illness might reflect failure to manage these cases in the community over a 10 year period spanning these changes. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a population based time trends study of major causes of hospital admission in children 2 days. By 2006, 67.3% of all unplanned admissions were isolated short stays <2 days. The increases in admission rates were greater for common non-infectious than infectious causes of admissions. CONCLUSIONS: Short stay unplanned hospital admission rates in young children in England have increased substantially in recent years and are not accounted for by reductions in length of in-hospital stay. The majority are isolated short stay admissions for minor illness episodes that could be better managed by primary care in the community and may be evidence of a failure of primary care services

Effectiveness of guided self-help in decreasing expressed emotion in family caregivers of people diagnosed with depression in Thailand: a randomised controlled trial

Background: High expressed emotion (EE) can extend the duration of illness and precipitate relapse; however, little evidence-based information is available to assist family caregivers of individuals with depression. In the present exploratory study, we examined the effectiveness of a cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT) based guided self-help (GSH) manual in decreasing EE in caregivers of people with depression, in Thailand. Method: A parallel group randomised controlled trial was conducted, following CONSORT guidelines, with 54 caregivers who were allocated equally to GSH or control group (standard outpatient department support). In addition, both groups were contacted weekly by telephone. EE was assessed, using the Family Questionnaire (FQ), at baseline, post-test (Week 8) and follow-up (Week 12). Results: FQ scores at baseline indicated that both groups had similar, though moderately high level of EE. However, between baseline and post-test EE scores decreased markedly in the intervention group, but in contrast, they increased slightly in the control group. Between post-test and follow-up, little change took place in the EE scores of either group. Overall, the intervention group recipients of GSH showed a significant decrease in EE whereas the control group recipients of standard outpatient department support reported a slight increase in EE. Conclusion: These findings provide preliminary evidence that GSH is beneficial in reducing EE in caregivers, which is advantageous to family members with depression and caregivers. The approach may be used as an adjunct to the limited outpatient department support given to caregivers by mental health professionals and, perhaps, to caregivers who do not attend these departments