Impact of climate change on renewable groundwater resources : assessing the benefits of avoided greenhouse gas emissions using selected CMIP5 climate projections

Reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to minimize climate change requires very significant societal effort. To motivate this effort, it is important to clarify the benefits of avoided emissions. To this end, we analysed the impact of four emissions scenarios on future renewable groundwater resources, which range from 1600 GtCO2 during the 21st century (RCP2.6) to 7300 GtCO2 (RCP8.5). Climate modelling uncertainty was taken into account by applying the bias-corrected output of a small ensemble of five CMIP5 global climate models (GCM) as provided by the ISI-MIP effort to the global hydrological model WaterGAP. Despite significant climate model uncertainty, the benefits of avoided emissions with respect to renewable groundwater resources (i.e. groundwater recharge (GWR)) are obvious. The percentage of projected global population (SSP2 population scenario) suffering from a significant decrease of GWR of more than 10% by the 2080s as compared to 1971–2000 decreases from 38% (GCM range 27–50%) for RCP8.5 to 24% (11–39%) for RCP2.6. The population fraction that is spared from any significant GWR change would increase from 29% to 47% if emissions were restricted to RCP2.6. Increases of GWR are more likely to occur in areas with below average population density, while GWR decreases of more than 30% affect especially (semi)arid regions, across all GCMs. Considering change of renewable groundwater resources as a function of mean global temperature (GMT) rise, the land area that is affected by GWR decreases of more than 30% and 70% increases linearly with global warming from 0 to 3 ° C. For each degree of GMT rise, an additional 4% of the global land area (except Greenland and Antarctica) is affected by a GWR decrease of more than 30%, and an additional 1% is affected by a decrease of more than 70%

Reconstruction of global gridded monthly sectoral water withdrawals for 1971-2010 and analysis of their spatiotemporal patterns

Human water withdrawal has increasingly altered the global water cycle in past decades, yet our understanding of its driving forces and patterns is limited. Reported historical estimates of sectoral water withdrawals are often sparse and incomplete, mainly restricted to water withdrawal estimates available at annual and country scale, due to a lack of observations at local and seasonal time scales. In this study, through collecting and consolidating various sources of reported data and developing spatial and temporal statistical downscaling algorithms, we reconstruct a global monthly gridded (0.5 degree) sectoral water withdrawal dataset for the period 1971–2010, which distinguishes six water use sectors, i.e. irrigation, domestic, electricity generation (cooling of thermal power plants), livestock, mining, and manufacturing. Based on the reconstructed dataset, the spatial and temporal patterns of historical water withdrawal are analyzed. Results show that global total water withdrawal has increased significantly during 1971–2010, mainly driven by the increase of irrigation water withdrawal. Regions with high water withdrawal are those densely populated or with large irrigated cropland production, e.g., the United States (US), eastern China, India, and Europe. Seasonally, irrigation water withdrawal in summer for the major crops contributes a large percentage of annual total irrigation water withdrawal in mid and high-latitude regions, and the dominant season of irrigation water withdrawal is also different across regions. Domestic water withdrawal is mostly characterized by a summer peak, while water withdrawal for electricity generation has a winter peak in high-latitude regions and a summer peak in low-latitude regions. Despite the overall increasing trend, irrigation in the western US and domestic water withdrawal in western Europe exhibit a decreasing trend. Our results highlight the distinct spatial pattern of human water use by sectors at the seasonal and annual scales. The reconstructed gridded water withdrawal dataset is open-access, and can be used for examining issues related to water withdrawals at fine spatial, temporal and sectoral scales

Sphingosine kinase-1 is a hypoxia-regulated gene that stimulates migration of human endothelial cells

Sphingosine kinases (SK) catalyze the production of sphingosine-1-phosphate which in turn regulates cell responses such as proliferation and migration. Here, we show that exposure of the human endothelial cell line EA.hy 926 to hypoxia stimulates a increased SK-1, but not SK-2, mRNA, protein expression, and activity. This effect was due to stimulated SK-1 promoter activity which contains two putative hypoxia-inducible factor-responsive-elements (HRE). By deletion of one of the two HREs, hypoxia-induced promoter activation was abrogated. Furthermore, hypoxia upregulated the expression of HIF-1alpha and HIF-2alpha, and both contributed to SK-1 gene transcription as shown by selective depletion of HIF-1alpha or HIF-2alpha by siRNA. The hypoxia-stimulated SK-1 upregulation was functionally coupled to increased migration since the selective depletion of SK-1, but not of SK-2, by siRNAs abolished the migratory response. In summary, these data show that hypoxia upregulates SK-1 activity and results in an accelerated migratory capacity of endothelial cells. SK-1 may thus serve as an attractive therapeutic target to treat diseases associated with increased endothelial migration and angiogenesis such as cancer growth and progression

Elevated admission lactate levels in the emergency department are associated with increased 30-day mortality in non-trauma critically ill patients

Background!#!Elevated blood lactate levels were reported as useful predictors of clinical outcome and mortality in critically ill patients. To identify higher-risk patients, this investigation evaluated the relationship between patient mortality and admission lactate levels during the management of non-trauma critically ill patients in the emergency department (ED).!##!Methods!#!In this prospective, single centre observational study in a German university ED, all adult patients who were admitted to the ED resuscitation room were evaluated between September 1, 2014 and August 31, 2015. Blood samples for blood gas analysis, including lactate levels, were obtained immediately at admission. Study endpoint was 30-day mortality.!##!Results!#!During the study period, 532 patients were admitted to the resuscitation room of the ED. The data of 523 patients (98.3%) were available. The overall 30-day mortality was 34.2%. Patients presenting to the resuscitation room with admission lactate levels < 2.0 mmol/l had a 30-day mortality of 22.7%, while admission lactate levels above 8.0 mmol/l were associated with higher mortality (8.0-9.9 mmol/l: OR: 2.83, 95%CI: 1.13-7.11, p = 0.03, and ≥ 10 mmol/l: OR: 7.56, 95%CI: 4.18-13.77, p < 0.001).!##!Conclusion!#!High lactate levels at admission are associated with an increased 24-h and 30-day mortality. These measurements may be used not only to predict mortality, but to help identify patients at risk for becoming critically ill. The breakpoint for mortality may be an ALL ≥8.0 mmol/l

Sensitivity of simulated global-scale freshwater fluxes and storages to input data, hydrological model structure, human water use and calibration

Global-scale assessments of freshwater fluxes and storages by hydrological models under historic climate conditions are subject to a variety of uncertainties. Using the global hydrological model WaterGAP 2.2, we investigated the sensitivity of simulated freshwater fluxes and water storage variations to five major sources of uncertainty: climate forcing, land cover input, model structure, consideration of human water use and calibration (or no calibration). In a modelling experiment, five variants of the standard version of WaterGAP 2.2 were generated that differed from the standard version only regarding the investigated source of uncertainty. Sensitivity was analyzed by comparing water fluxes and water storage variations computed by the variants to those of the standard version, considering both global averages and grid cell values for the time period 1971–2000. The basin-specific calibration approach for WaterGAP, which forces simulated mean annual river discharge to be equal to observed values at 1319 gauging stations (representing 54% of global land area except Antarctica and Greenland), has the highest effect on modelled water fluxes and leads to the best fit of modelled to observed monthly and seasonal river discharge. Alternative state-of-the-art climate forcings rank second regarding the impact on grid cell specific fluxes and water storage variations, and their impact is ubiquitous and stronger than that of alternative land cover inputs. The diverse model refinements during the last decade lead to an improved fit to observed discharge, and affect globally averaged fluxes and storage values (the latter mainly due to modelling of groundwater depletion) but only affect a relatively small number of grid cells. Considering human water use is important for the global water storage trend (in particular in the groundwater compartment) but impacts on water fluxes are rather local and only important where water use is high. The best fit to observed time series of monthly river discharge (Nash–Sutcliffe criterion) or discharge seasonality is obtained with the standard WaterGAP 2.2 model version which is calibrated and driven by a sequence of two time series of daily observation-based climate forcings, WFD/WFDEI. Discharge computed by a calibrated model version using monthly CRU 3.2 and GPCC v6 climate input reduced the fit to observed discharge for most stations. Taking into account the investigated uncertainties of climate and land cover data, we estimate that the global 1971–2000 discharge into oceans and inland sinks is between 40 000 and 42 000 km3 yr−1. The range is mainly due differences in precipitation data that affect discharge in uncalibrated river basins. Actual evapotranspiration, with approximately 70 000 km3 yr−1, is rather unaffected by climate and land cover in global sum but differs spatially. Human water use is calculated to reduce river discharge by approximately 1000 km3 yr−1. Thus, global renewable water resources are estimated to range between 41 000 and 43 000 km3 yr−1. The climate data sets WFD (available until 2001) and WFDEI (starting in 1979) were found to be inconsistent with respect to short wave radiation data, resulting in strongly different potential evapotranspiration. Global assessments of freshwater fluxes and storages would therefore benefit from the development of a global data set of consistent daily climate forcing from 1900 to current

The global water resources and use model WaterGAP v2.2d: model description and evaluation

WaterGAP is a global hydrological model that quantifies human use of groundwater and surface water as well as water flows and water storage and thus water resources on all land areas of the Earth. Since 1996, it has served to assess water resources and water stress both historically and in the future, in particular under climate change. It has improved our understanding of continental water storage variations, with a focus on overexploitation and depletion of water resources. In this paper, we describe the most recent model version WaterGAP 2.2d, including the water use models, the linking model that computes net abstractions from groundwater and surface water and the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model (WGHM). Standard model output variables that are freely available at a data repository are explained. In addition, the most requested model outputs, total water storage anomalies, streamflow and water use, are evaluated against observation data. Finally, we show examples of assessments of the global freshwater system that can be achieved with WaterGAP 2.2d model output.publishedVersio

Variations of global and continental water balance components as impacted by climate forcing uncertainty and human water use

When assessing global water resources with hydrological models, it is essential to know about methodological uncertainties. The values of simulated water balance components may vary due to different spatial and temporal aggregations, reference periods, and applied climate forcings, as well as due to the consideration of human water use, or the lack thereof. We analyzed these variations over the period 1901–2010 by forcing the global hydrological model WaterGAP 2.2 (ISIMIP2a) with five state-of-the-art climate data sets, including a homogenized version of the concatenated WFD/WFDEI data set. Absolute values and temporal variations of global water balance components are strongly affected by the uncertainty in the climate forcing, and no temporal trends of the global water balance components are detected for the four homogeneous climate forcings considered (except for human water abstractions). The calibration of WaterGAP against observed long-term average river discharge Q significantly reduces the impact of climate forcing uncertainty on estimated Q and renewable water resources. For the homogeneous forcings, Q of the calibrated and non-calibrated regions of the globe varies by 1.6 and 18.5 %, respectively, for 1971–2000. On the continental scale, most differences for long-term average precipitation P and Q estimates occur in Africa and, due to snow undercatch of rain gauges, also in the data-rich continents Europe and North America. Variations of Q at the grid-cell scale are large, except in a few grid cells upstream and downstream of calibration stations, with an average variation of 37 and 74 % among the four homogeneous forcings in calibrated and non-calibrated regions, respectively. Considering only the forcings GSWP3 and WFDEI_hom, i.e., excluding the forcing without undercatch correction (PGFv2.1) and the one with a much lower shortwave downward radiation SWD than the others (WFD), Q variations are reduced to 16 and 31 % in calibrated and non-calibrated regions, respectively. These simulation results support the need for extended Q measurements and data sharing for better constraining global water balance assessments. Over the 20th century, the human footprint on natural water resources has become larger. For 11–18% of the global land area, the change of Q between 1941–1970 and 1971–2000 was driven more strongly by change of human water use including dam construction than by change in precipitation, while this was true for only 9–13 % of the land area from 1911–1940 to 1941–1970

Variations of global and continental water balance components as impacted by climate forcing uncertainty and human water use

When assessing global water resources with hydrological models, it is essential to know about methodological uncertainties. The values of simulated water balance components may vary due to different spatial and temporal aggregations, reference periods, and applied climate forcings, as well as due to the consideration of human water use, or the lack thereof. We analyzed these variations over the period 1901–2010 by forcing the global hydrological model WaterGAP 2.2 (ISIMIP2a) with five state-of-the-art climate data sets, including a homogenized version of the concatenated WFD/WFDEI data set. Absolute values and temporal variations of global water balance components are strongly affected by the uncertainty in the climate forcing, and no temporal trends of the global water balance components are detected for the four homogeneous climate forcings considered (except for human water abstractions). The calibration of WaterGAP against observed long-term average river discharge Q significantly reduces the impact of climate forcing uncertainty on estimated Q and renewable water resources. For the homogeneous forcings, Q of the calibrated and non-calibrated regions of the globe varies by 1.6 and 18.5 %, respectively, for 1971–2000. On the continental scale, most differences for long-term average precipitation P and Q estimates occur in Africa and, due to snow undercatch of rain gauges, also in the data-rich continents Europe and North America. Variations of Q at the grid-cell scale are large, except in a few grid cells upstream and downstream of calibration stations, with an average variation of 37 and 74 % among the four homogeneous forcings in calibrated and non-calibrated regions, respectively. Considering only the forcings GSWP3 and WFDEI_hom, i.e., excluding the forcing without undercatch correction (PGFv2.1) and the one with a much lower shortwave downward radiation SWD than the others (WFD), Q variations are reduced to 16 and 31 % in calibrated and non-calibrated regions, respectively. These simulation results support the need for extended Q measurements and data sharing for better constraining global water balance assessments. Over the 20th century, the human footprint on natural water resources has become larger. For 11–18% of the global land area, the change of Q between 1941–1970 and 1971–2000 was driven more strongly by change of human water use including dam construction than by change in precipitation, while this was true for only 9–13 % of the land area from 1911–1940 to 1941–1970

The global water resources and use model WaterGAP v2.2d - Alternative model output driven with gswp3-w5e5

Assessing global freshwater resources and human water demand is of value for a number of needs but challenging. The global water use and water availability model WaterGAP is in development since 1996 and serves a range of applications and topics as such as Life Cycle Assessments, a better understanding of terrestrial water storage variations (e.g., jointly with satellite observations), water (over)use and consequently depletion of water resources, as well as model evaluation and model development. In the paper connected to this dataset (doi:10.5194/gmd-14-1037-2021), the newest model version, WaterGAP 2.2d is described by providing the water balance equations, insights to input data used and typical model applications. The most important and requested model outputs (total water storage variations, streamflow and water use) are evaluated against observation data. Standard model output, driven by the climate input WFD-WFDEI (for the years 1901-2016) is described. Caveats of specific output data and an overview of model applications as well as an outlook of future model development lines are presented as well. Here, the reader can download model output driven by an alternative climate forcing, the so called GSWP3-W5E5 forcing (available for the years 1901-2019). This climate forcing was created in the ISIMIP context (https://www.isimip.org) and is described in https://www.isimip.org/gettingstarted/input-data-bias-adjustment/details/80/ as Combination of W5E5 v2.0 (Cucchi et al., 2020, doi:10.5194/essd-2020-28 and Lange et al., 2021, doi:10.48364/ISIMIP.342217) for 1979-2019 with GSWP3 v1.09 (Kim, 2017, doi:10.20783/DIAS.501) homogenized to W5E5 for 1901-1978. The homogenization reduces discontinuities at the 1978/1979 transition and was done using the ISIMIP3BASD v2.5.0 bias adjustment method (Lange, 2019, doi:10.5194/gmd-12-3055-2019 and Lange, 2021, doi:10.5281/zenodo.4686991)