Capture-mark-recapture to estimate the number of missed articles for systematic reviews in surgery

Abstract BACKGROUND: Systematic reviews are an important knowledge synthesis tool, but with new literature available each day, reviewers must balance identifying all relevant literature against timely synthesis. METHODS: This study tested capture-mark-recapture (CMR), an ecology-based technique, to estimate the total number of articles in the literature identified in a systematic review of adult trauma care quality indicators. RESULTS: The systematic review included 40 articles identified from online searches and citation references. The CMR model suggested that 3 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0 to 6) articles were missed and the database search provided 93% (one-sided 95% CI: R83%) of known articles for inclusion in the systematic review. The search order used for identifying the articles was optimal among the 24 that could have been used. CONCLUSIONS: The CMR technique can be used in systematic reviews in surgery to estimate the closeness to capturing the total body of literature for a specific topic. Ó 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Systematic reviews are increasingly used in surgery to synthesize knowledge so that evidence can inform clinical practice (eg, guideline development). Exhaustive searching in multiple large bibliographic databases is time consuming and resource intensive, but it needs to be efficient so the results are presented before the information becomes outdated. However, this is difficult because the amount of literature that exists on any given topic is unknown. Capture-mark-recapture (CMR) is a technique originating in ecology that has been applied to systematic reviews of randomized controlled trials of interventions in osteoporosis, gastroenterology, and hematology 1-3 to estimate The project was supported by a Synthesis Grant (KRS-91770) from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research. Dr. Stelfox is supported by a New Investigator Award from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research and a Population Health Investigator Award from Alberta Innovates. Funding sources had no role in the design, conduct, or reporting of this study and we are unaware of any conflicts of interest. None of the authors have financial or professional conflicts of interest that would influence the conduct or reporting of this study. Drs. Stelfox, Foster, and Goldsmith had full access to all of the data in the study and take responsibility for the integrity of the data and the accuracy of the data analysis. Presented at the Cochrane Canada Symposium May 9, 2012, Winnipeg, Canada. * Corresponding author. The American Journal of Surgery (2013) 206, 439-440 the number of articles in the literature. The technique has not been evaluated in observational studies or surgical studies. We therefore tested CMR to estimate the total number of articles in the literature identified in a systematic review of adult trauma care quality indicators. We performed a scoping review to identify quality indicators for evaluating trauma care 4 and subsequently systematically reviewed the evidence. 5 Horizon estimates (estimated total population of articles) were calculated for full text review and final inclusion using the 4 step CMR technique: (1) capture an initial sample from a population of interest (eg, catch fish in lake); (2) mark the elements in the sample (eg, tag the fish); (3) release the sample back into the population (eg, release tagged fish back into lake); and (4) resample the population (catch fish from same lake to see how many are tagged). Articles found in our 1st database (MEDLINE) were marked as being retrieved from that search and compared with articles retrieved through subsequent searches (eg, Embase was the 2nd database). Articles identified through bibliography reviews were attributed to the originating electronic database. Poisson regression models were used to calculate fitted estimates of the cell counts (number of articles missed) and estimate the total horizon of articles (SAS v 9.2; SAS, Cary, NC). The results of the horizon estimate are shown in We repeated the process for articles selected for inclusion in the systematic review. The final horizon estimate was 43 (40 to 46) articles, representing a difference of 3 (0 to 6) articles between the projected total literature and the number of articles captured (40 articles). Thus, selection of articles for inclusion in the systematic review represents the capture of 93% (87% to 100%) of the estimated pool of available articles. The search order used for identifying the articles was optimal among the 24 that could have been used. CMR is a technique that can be applied to estimate the total number of relevant articles for a given topic. This study demonstrates that CMR can be successfully used for systematic reviews of observational studies in surgery. Future systematic reviews may consider including horizon estimates as possible stopping rules (eg, search until 80% of articles captured) to identify when a sufficient literature search has been completed. CMR may help improve the completeness and efficiency of systematic reviews

The makeshift city: towards a global geography of squatting

This paper introduces a set of analytical frames that explore the possibilities of conceiving, researching and writing a global geography of squatting. The paper argues that it is possible to detect, in the most tenuous of urban settings, ways of thinking about and living urban life that have the potential to reanimate the city as a key site of geographical inquiry. The paper develops a modest theory of ‘urban combats’ to account for the complexity and provisionality of squatting as an informal set of practices, as a makeshift approach to housing and as a precarious form of inhabiting the city

Antidepressants and Breast and Ovarian Cancer Risk: A Review of the Literature and Researchers' Financial Associations with Industry

BACKGROUND: Antidepressant (AD) use has been purported to increase the risk of breast and ovarian cancer, although both epidemiological and pre-clinical studies have reported mixed results. Previous studies in a variety of biomedical fields have found that financial ties to drug companies are associated with favorable study conclusions. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We searched English-language articles in MEDLINE, PsychINFO, the Science Citations Index and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Clinical Trials (through November 2010). A total of 61 articles that assessed the relationship between breast and ovarian cancer and AD use and articles that examined the effect of ADs on cell growth were included. Multi-modal screening techniques were used to investigate researchers' financial ties with industry. A random effects meta-analysis was used to pool the findings from the epidemiological literature. Thirty-three percent (20/61) of the studies reported a positive association between ADs and cancer. Sixty-seven percent (41/61) of the studies reported no association or antiproliferative effect. The pooled odds ratio for the association between AD use and breast/ovarian cancer in the epidemiologic studies was 1.11 (95% CI, 1.03-1.20). Researchers with industry affiliations were significantly less likely than researchers without those ties to conclude that ADs increase the risk of breast or ovarian cancer. (0/15 [0%] vs 20/46 [43.5%] (Fisher's Exact test P = 0.0012). CONCLUSIONS: Both the pre-clinical and clinical data are mixed in terms of showing an association between AD use and breast and ovarian cancer. The possibility that ADs may exhibit a bi-phasic effect, whereby short-term use and/or low dose antidepressants may increase the risk of breast and ovarian cancer, warrants further investigation. Industry affiliations were significantly associated with negative conclusions regarding cancer risk. The findings have implications in light of the 2009 USPSTF guidelines for breast cancer screening and for the informed consent process

Percentage of Patients with Preventable Adverse Drug Reactions and Preventability of Adverse Drug Reactions – A Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND: Numerous observational studies suggest that preventable adverse drug reactions are a significant burden in healthcare, but no meta-analysis using a standardised definition for adverse drug reactions exists. The aim of the study was to estimate the percentage of patients with preventable adverse drug reactions and the preventability of adverse drug reactions in adult outpatients and inpatients. METHODS: Studies were identified through searching Cochrane, CINAHL, EMBASE, IPA, Medline, PsycINFO and Web of Science in September 2010, and by hand searching the reference lists of identified papers. Original peer-reviewed research articles in English that defined adverse drug reactions according to WHO's or similar definition and assessed preventability were included. Disease or treatment specific studies were excluded. Meta-analysis on the percentage of patients with preventable adverse drug reactions and the preventability of adverse drug reactions was conducted. RESULTS: Data were analysed from 16 original studies on outpatients with 48797 emergency visits or hospital admissions and from 8 studies involving 24128 inpatients. No studies in primary care were identified. Among adult outpatients, 2.0% (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.2-3.2%) had preventable adverse drug reactions and 52% (95% CI: 42-62%) of adverse drug reactions were preventable. Among inpatients, 1.6% (95% CI: 0.1-51%) had preventable adverse drug reactions and 45% (95% CI: 33-58%) of adverse drug reactions were preventable. CONCLUSIONS: This meta-analysis corroborates that preventable adverse drug reactions are a significant burden to healthcare among adult outpatients. Among both outpatients and inpatients, approximately half of adverse drug reactions are preventable, demonstrating that further evidence on prevention strategies is required. The percentage of patients with preventable adverse drug reactions among inpatients and in primary care is largely unknown and should be investigated in future research

Screening for multi-drug-resistant Gram-negative bacteria: what is effective and justifiable?

Effectiveness is a key criterion in assessing the justification of antibiotic resistance interventions. Depending on an intervention's effectiveness, burdens and costs will be more or less justified, which is especially important for large scale population-level interventions with high running costs and pronounced risks to individuals in terms of wellbeing, integrity and autonomy. In this paper, we assess the case of routine hospital screening for multi-drug-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (MDRGN) from this perspective. Utilizing a comparison to screening programs for Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) we argue that current screening programmes for MDRGN in low endemic settings should be reconsidered, as its effectiveness is in doubt, while general downsides to screening programs remain. To accomplish justifiable antibiotic stewardship, MDRGN screening should not be viewed as a separate measure, but rather as part of a comprehensive approach. The program should be redesigned to focus on those at risk of developing symptomatic infections with MDRGN rather than merely detecting those colonised

Aripiprazole in the Maintenance Treatment of Bipolar Disorder: A Critical Review of the Evidence and Its Dissemination into the Scientific Literature

A systematic search of the literature reveals limited evidence to support use of aripiprazole, a second-generation antipsychotic medication, in maintenance therapy of bipolar disorder, despite widespread use

What is the value and impact of quality and safety teams? A scoping review

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The purpose of this study was to conduct a scoping review of the literature about the establishment and impact of quality and safety team initiatives in acute care.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Studies were identified through electronic searches of Medline, Embase, CINAHL, PsycINFO, ABI Inform, Cochrane databases. Grey literature and bibliographies were also searched. Qualitative or quantitative studies that occurred in acute care, describing how quality and safety teams were established or implemented, the impact of teams, or the barriers and/or facilitators of teams were included. Two reviewers independently extracted data on study design, sample, interventions, and outcomes. Quality assessment of full text articles was done independently by two reviewers. Studies were categorized according to dimensions of quality.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of 6,674 articles identified, 99 were included in the study. The heterogeneity of studies and results reported precluded quantitative data analyses. Findings revealed limited information about attributes of successful and unsuccessful team initiatives, barriers and facilitators to team initiatives, unique or combined contribution of selected interventions, or how to effectively establish these teams.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Not unlike systematic reviews of quality improvement collaboratives, this broad review revealed that while teams reported a number of positive results, there are many methodological issues. This study is unique in utilizing traditional quality assessment and more novel methods of quality assessment and reporting of results (SQUIRE) to appraise studies. Rigorous design, evaluation, and reporting of quality and safety team initiatives are required.</p