Acceleration of phenological advance and warming with latitude over the past century.

In the Northern Hemisphere, springtime events are frequently reported as advancing more rapidly at higher latitudes, presumably due to an acceleration of warming with latitude. However, this assumption has not been investigated in an analytical framework that simultaneously examines acceleration of warming with latitude while accounting for variation in phenological time series characteristics that might also co-vary with latitude. We analyzed 743 phenological trend estimates spanning 86 years and 42.6 degrees of latitude in the Northern Hemisphere, as well as rates of Northern Hemisphere warming over the same period and latitudinal range. We detected significant patterns of co-variation in phenological time series characteristics that may confound estimates of the magnitude of variation in trends with latitude. Notably, shorter and more recent time series tended to produce the strongest phenological trends, and these also tended to be from higher latitude studies. However, accounting for such variation only slightly modified the relationship between rates of phenological advance and latitude, which was highly significant. Furthermore, warming has increased non-linearly with latitude over the past several decades, most strongly since 1998 and northward of 59°N latitude. The acceleration of warming with latitude has likely contributed to an acceleration of phenological advance along the same gradient

QUANTITATIVE DROUGHT RECONSTRUCTION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM LAKE SEDIMENT RECORDS AND PREDICTIVE MODELS

Water resources in the American west are under mounting stress due to increasing demand, receding glaciers, and diminishing winter snowpack amounts. By understanding past aridity patterns, we can improve the ability of global climate models to predict regional hydroclimatic conditions in the coming decades and centuries. Such forecasting is critical to the development of sound water allocation policies. To produce accurate forecasts, global climate models rely on paleo-proxy evidence to constrain climate parameters that govern, for example, important potential changes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation and its associated impacts on extratropical precipitation and drought patterns in response to future anthropogenic climate forcing. Lake sediment oxygen isotope records are one such form of paleo-proxy evidence, providing valuable information about past climatic conditions on time scales ranging from years to millennia. Here a numerical lake-catchment model defined by a system of twelve ordinary differential equations is developed and used to describe the physical processes controlling lake-catchment hydrology and oxygen isotope dynamics. This model is applied to Castor Lake and Scanlon Lake, central Washington, and used to conduct simulations designed to characterize lake hydrologic and isotopic responses to mean state and stochastic hydroclimatic variability. Ultimately, the Castor Lake sediment oxygen isotope record is interpreted using an ensemble of Monte Carlo lake model simulations to produce a probabilistic, quantitative reconstruction of precipitation amounts over the past 1500 years. This reconstruction indicates that the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) (950-1250 BP) was a relatively wet period and that the Little Ice Age (LIA) (1450-1850 BP) was relatively dry, suggesting that the MCA was characterized by a La Niña like state of the tropical Pacific and the LIA was characterized by El Niño like conditions. These results are the first quantitative, probabilistic estimate of paleo-precipitation using lake sediment oxygen isotope records from the interior Pacific Northwest, and will provide a resource for the parameterization of climate models designed to investigate future Pacific Ocean responses to anthropogenic forcing and the associated influence on aridity patterns in the American west

Incoherency in Central American Hydroclimate Proxy Records Spanning the Last Millennium

Continued Global Warming is Expected to Result in Reduced Precipitation and a Drier Climate in Central America. Projections of Future Changes Are Highly Uncertain, However, Due to the Spatial Resolution Limitations of Models and Insufficient Observational Data Coverage Across Space and Time. Paleoclimate Proxy Data Are Therefore Critical for Understanding Regional Climate Responses during Times of Global Climate Reorganization. Here We Present Two Lake-Sediment based Records of Precipitation Variability in Guatemala Along with a Synthesis of Central American Hydroclimate Records Spanning the Last Millennium (800–2000 CE). the Synthesis Reveals that Regional Climate Changes Have Been Strikingly Heterogeneous, even over Relatively Short Distances. Our Analysis Further Suggests that Shifts in the Mean Position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, Which Have Been Invoked by Numerous Studies to Explain Variability in Central American and Circum-Caribbean Proxy Records, Cannot Alone Explain the Observed Pattern of Hydroclimate Variability. Instead, Interactions between Several Ocean-Atmosphere Processes and their Disparate Influences Across Variable Topography Appear to Have Resulted in Complex Precipitation Responses. These Complexities Highlight the Difficulty of Reconstructing Past Precipitation Changes Across Central America and Point to the Need for Additional Paleo-Record Development and Analysis Before the Relationships between External Forcing and Hydroclimate Change Can Be Robustly Determined. Such Efforts Should Help Anchor Model-Based Predictions of Future Responses to Continued Global Warming

Midcontinental Native American population dynamics and late Holocene hydroclimate extremes

Climate’s influence on late Pre-Columbian (pre-1492 CE), maize-dependent Native American populations in the midcontinental United States (US) is poorly understood as regional paleoclimate records are sparse and/or provide conflicting perspectives. Here, we reconstruct regional changes in precipitation source and seasonality and local changes in warm-season duration and rainstorm events related to the Pacific North American pattern (PNA) using a 2100-year-long multi-proxy lake-sediment record from the midcontinental US. Wet midcontinental climate reflecting negative PNA-like conditions occurred during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (950–1250 CE) as Native American populations adopted intensive maize agriculture, facilitating population aggregation and the development of urban centers between 1000–1200 CE. Intensifying midcontinental socio-political instability and warfare between 1250–1350 CE corresponded with drier positive PNA-like conditions, culminating in the staggered abandonment of many major Native American river valley settlements and large urban centers between 1350–1450 CE during an especially severe warm-season drought. We hypothesize that this sustained drought interval rendered it difficult to support dense populations and large urban centers in the midcontinental US by destabilizing regional agricultural systems, thereby contributing to the host of socio-political factors that led to population reorganization and migration in the midcontinent and neighboring regions shortly before European contact

The 'pause' in global warming in historical context : (II). Comparing models to observations

We review the evidence for a putative early 21st-century divergence between global mean surface temperature (GMST) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) projections. We provide a systematic comparison between temperatures and projections using historical versions of GMST products and historical versions of model projections that existed at the times when claims about a divergence were made. The comparisons are conducted with a variety of statistical techniques that correct for problems in previous work, including using continuous trends and a Monte Carlo approach to simulate internal variability. The results show that there is no robust statistical evidence for a divergence between models and observations. The impression of a divergence early in the 21st century was caused by various biases in model interpretation and in the observations, and was unsupported by robust statistics

Interhemispheric antiphasing of neotropical precipitation during the past millennium

Uncertainty about the influence of anthropogenic radiative forcing on the position and strength of convective rainfall in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) inhibits our ability to project future tropical hydroclimate change in a warmer world. Paleoclimatic and modeling data inform on the timescales and mechanisms of ITCZ variability; yet a comprehensive, long-term perspective remains elusive. Here, we quantify the evolution of neotropical hydroclimate over the preindustrial past millennium (850 to 1850 CE) using a synthesis of 48 paleo-records, accounting for uncertainties in paleo-archive age models. We show that an interhemispheric pattern of precipitation antiphasing occurred on multicentury timescales in response to changes in natural radiative forcing. The conventionally defined “Little Ice Age” (1450 to 1850 CE) was marked by a clear shift toward wetter conditions in the southern neotropics and a less distinct and spatiotemporally complex transition toward drier conditions in the northern neotropics. This pattern of hydroclimatic change is consistent with results from climate model simulations indicating that a relative cooling of the Northern Hemisphere caused a southward shift in the thermal equator across the Atlantic basin and a southerly displacement of the ITCZ in the tropical Americas, with volcanic forcing as the principal driver. These findings are at odds with proxy-based reconstructions of ITCZ behavior in the western Pacific basin, where changes in ITCZ width and intensity, rather than mean position, appear to have driven hydroclimate transitions over the last millennium. This reinforces the idea that ITCZ responses to external forcing are region specific, complicating projections of the tropical precipitation response to global warming

Scientific drilling of Lake Chalco, Basin of Mexico (MexiDrill)

The primary scientific objective of MexiDrill, the Basin of Mexico Drilling Program, is development of a continuous, high-resolution ∼400 kyr lacustrine record of tropical North American environmental change. The field location, in the densely populated, water-stressed Mexico City region gives this record particular societal relevance. A detailed paleoclimate reconstruction from central Mexico will enhance our understanding of long-term natural climate variability in the North American tropics and its relationship with changes at higher latitudes. The site lies at the northern margin of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), where modern precipitation amounts are influenced by sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and Atlantic basins. During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), more winter precipitation at the site is hypothesized to have been a consequence of a southward displacement of the mid-latitude westerlies. It thus represents a key spatial node for understanding large-scale hydrological variability of tropical and subtropical North America and is at an altitude (2240 m a.s.l.), typical of much of western North America. In addition, its sediments contain a rich record of pre-Holocene volcanic history; knowledge of the magnitude and frequency relationships of the area's explosive volcanic eruptions will improve capacity for risk assessment of future activity. Explosive eruption deposits will also be used to provide the backbone of a robust chronology necessary for full exploitation of the paleoclimate record. Here we report initial results from, and outreach activities of, the 2016 coring campaign

Ocean-atmosphere forcing of centennial hydroclimate variability in the Pacific Northwest

Reconstructing centennial timescale hydroclimate variability during the late Holocene is critically important for understanding large-scale patterns of drought and their relationship with climate dynamics. We present sediment oxygen isotope records spanning the last two millennia from 10 lakes, as well as climate model simulations, indicating that the Little Ice Age was dry relative to the Medieval Climate Anomaly in much of the Pacific Northwest of North America. This pattern is consistent with observed associations between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Northern Annular Mode, and drought as well as with proxy-based reconstructions of Pacific and Atlantic ocean-atmosphere variations over the past 1000 years. The large amplitude of centennial variability indicated by the lake data suggests that regional hydroclimate is characterized by longer-term shifts in ENSO-like dynamics and that an improved understanding of the centennial timescale relationship between external forcing and drought is necessary for projecting future hydroclimatic conditions in western North America.U.S. National Science Foundation. Grant Numbers: AGS-1137750 (B.A.S.), EAR-0902200 (M.B.A.), ATM-0902133 (M.E.M.), EAR-0902753 (J.D.O.), AGS-1103316 (S.F.

H4 Histamine Receptors Mediate Cell Cycle Arrest in Growth Factor-Induced Murine and Human Hematopoietic Progenitor Cells

The most recently characterized H4 histamine receptor (H4R) is expressed preferentially in the bone marrow, raising the question of its role during hematopoiesis. Here we show that both murine and human progenitor cell populations express this receptor subtype on transcriptional and protein levels and respond to its agonists by reduced growth factor-induced cell cycle progression that leads to decreased myeloid, erythroid and lymphoid colony formation. H4R activation prevents the induction of cell cycle genes through a cAMP/PKA-dependent pathway that is not associated with apoptosis. It is mediated specifically through H4R signaling since gene silencing or treatment with selective antagonists restores normal cell cycle progression. The arrest of growth factor-induced G1/S transition protects murine and human progenitor cells from the toxicity of the cell cycle-dependent anticancer drug Ara-C in vitro and reduces aplasia in a murine model of chemotherapy. This first evidence for functional H4R expression in hematopoietic progenitors opens new therapeutic perspectives for alleviating hematotoxic side effects of antineoplastic drugs