Capturing regional differences in flood vulnerability improves flood loss estimation

Flood vulnerability is quantified by loss models which are developed using either empirical or synthetic approaches. In reality, processes influencing flood risk are stochastic and loss predictions bear significant uncertainty, especially due to differences in vulnerability across exposed objects and regions. However, many state-of-the-art flood loss models are deterministic, i.e., they do not account for data and model uncertainty. The Bayesian Data-Driven Synthetic (BDDS) model was one of the first approaches that used empirical data to reduce the prediction errors at object-level and enhance the reliability of synthetic flood loss models. However, the BDDS model does not account for regional differences in vulnerability which may result in over-/under-estimation of losses in some regions. In order to overcome this limitation, this study introduces a hierarchical parameterization of the BDDS model which enhances synthetic flood loss model predictions by quantifying regional differences in vulnerability. The hierarchical parameterization makes optimal use of the process information contained in the overall data set for the various regional applications, so that it is particularly suitable for cases in which only a small amount of empirical data is available. The implementation and performance of the hierarchical parametrization is demonstrated with the Multi-Colored Manual (MCM) loss functions and empirical damage dataset from the UK consisting of residential buildings from the regions Appleby, Carlisle, Kendal and Cockermouth that suffered losses during the 2015 flood event. The developed model improves prediction accuracy of flood loss compared to MCM by reducing the absolute error and bias by at least 23 and 90%, respectively. The model reliability in terms of hit rate (i.e., the probability that the observed value lies in the 90% high density interval of predictions) is 88% for residential buildings from the same regions used for calibration and 73% for residential buildings from new regions. The approach is of high practical relevance for all regions where only limited amounts of empirical flood loss data is available

A consistent approach for probabilistic residential flood loss modeling in Europe

In view of globally increasing flood losses, a significantly improved and more efficient flood risk management and adaptation policy are needed. One prerequisite is reliable risk assessments on the continental scale. Flood loss modeling and risk assessments for Europe are until now based on regional approaches using deterministic depth‐damage functions. Uncertainties associated with the risk estimation are hardly known. To reduce these shortcomings, we present a novel, consistent approach for probabilistic flood loss modeling for Europe, based on the upscaling of the Bayesian Network Flood Loss Estimation MOdel for the private sector, BN‐FLEMOps. The model is applied on the mesoscale in the whole of Europe and can be adapted to regional situations. BN‐FLEMOps is validated in three case studies in Italy, Austria, and Germany. The officially reported loss figures of the past flood events are within the 95% quantile range of the probabilistic loss estimation, for all three case studies. In the Italian, Austrian, and German case studies, the median loss estimate shows an overestimation by 28% (2.1 million euro) and 305% (5.8 million euro) and an underestimation by 43% (104 million euro), respectively. In two of the three case studies, the performance of the model improved, when updated with empirical damage data from the area of interest. This approach represents a step forward in European wide flood risk modeling, since it delivers consistent flood loss estimates and inherently provides uncertainty information. Further validation and tests with respect to adapting the model to different European regions are recommended

Frequency, course and correlates of alcohol use from adolescence to young adulthood in a Swiss community survey

BACKGROUND: Few studies have analyzed the frequency of alcohol use across time from adolescence to young adulthood and its outcome in young adulthood. A Swiss longitudinal multilevel assessment project using various measures of psychopathology and psychosocial variables allowed for the study of the frequency and correlates of alcohol use so that this developmental trajectory may be better understood. METHOD: Alcohol use was studied by a questionnaire in a cohort of N = 593 subjects who had been assessed at three times between adolescence and young adulthood within the Zurich Psychology and Psychopathology Study (ZAPPS). Other assessment included questionnaire data measuring emotional and behavioural problems, life events, coping style, self-related cognitions, perceived parenting style and school environment, and size and efficiency of the social network. RESULTS: The increase of alcohol use from early adolescence to young adulthood showed only a few sex-specific differences in terms of the amount of alcohol consumption and the motives to drink. In late adolescence and young adulthood, males had a higher amount of alcohol consumption and were more frequently looking for drunkenness and feeling high. Males also experienced more negative consequences of alcohol use. A subgroup of heavy or problem drinkers showed a large range of emotional and behavioural problems and further indicators of impaired psychosocial functioning both in late adolescence and young adulthood. CONCLUSION: This Swiss community survey documents that alcohol use is problematic in a sizeable proportion of youth and goes hand in hand with a large number of psychosocial problems

Rho-kinase inhibition blunts renal vasoconstriction induced by distinct signaling pathways in vivo

In addition to intracellular calcium, which activates myosin light chain (MLC) kinase, MLC phosphorylation and hence contraction is importantly regulated by MLC phosphatase (MLCP). Recent evidence suggests that distinct signaling cascades of vasoactive hormones interact with the Rho/Rho kinase (ROK) pathway, affecting the activity of MLCP. The present study measured the impact of ROK inhibition on vascular F-actin distribution and on vasoconstriction induced by activation/inhibition of distinct signaling pathways in vivo in the microcirculation of the split hydronephrotic rat kidney. Local application of the ROK inhibitors Y-27632 or HA-1077 induced marked dilation of pre- and postglomerular vessels. Activation of phospholipase C with the endothelin ET B agonist IRL 1620, inhibition of soluble guanylyl cyclase with 1H-[1,2,4]oxadiazolo-[4,3-a]quinoxalin-1-one (ODQ), or inhibition of adenylyl cyclase with the adenosine A1 agonist N6-cyclopentyladenosine (CPA) reduced glomerular blood flow (GBF) by about 50% through vasoconstriction at different vascular levels. ROK inhibition with Y-27632 or HA-1077, but not protein kinase C inhibition with Ro 31-8220, blunted ET B-induced vasoconstriction. Furthermore, the reduction of GBF and of vascular diameters in response to ODQ or CPA were abolished by pretreatment with Y-27632. ROK inhibitors prevented constriction of preglomerular vessels and of efferent arterioles with equal effectiveness. Confocal microscopy demonstrated that Y-27632 did not change F-actin content and distribution in renal vessels. The results suggest that ROK inhibition might be considered as a potent treatment of renal vasoconstriction, because it interferes with constriction induced by distinct signaling pathways in renal vessels without affecting F-actin structure

High loading of polygenic risk for ADHD in children with comorbid aggression

Objective: Although attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is highly heritable, genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have not yet identified any common genetic variants that contribute to risk. There is evidence that aggression or conduct disorder in children with ADHD indexes higher genetic loading and clinical severity. The authors examine whether common genetic variants considered en masse as polygenic scores for ADHD are especially enriched in children with comorbid conduct disorder. Method: Polygenic scores derived from an ADHD GWAS meta-analysis were calculated in an independent ADHD sample (452 case subjects, 5,081 comparison subjects). Multivariate logistic regression analyses were employed to compare polygenic scores in the ADHD and comparison groups and test for higher scores in ADHD case subjects with comorbid conduct disorder relative to comparison subjects and relative to those without comorbid conduct disorder. Association with symptom scores was tested using linear regression. Results: Polygenic risk for ADD, derived from the meta-analysis, was higher in the independent ADHD group than in the comparison group. Polygenic score was significantly higher in ADHD case subjects with conduct disorder relative to ADHD case subjects without conduct disorder. ADHD polygenic score showed significant association with comorbid conduct disorder symptoms. This relationship was explained by,the aggression items. Conclusions: Common genetic variation is relevant to ADHD, especially in individuals with comorbid aggression. The findings suggest that the previously published ADHD GWAS meta-analysis contains weak but true associations with common variants, support for which falls below genome-wide significance levels. The findings also highlight the fact that aggression in ADHD indexes genetic as well as clinical severity

Parents dealing with anorexia : actions and meanings

This paper examines parents&rsquo; actions in response to anorexia nervosa, and how these are shaped by the ways they construct or understand the eating disorder. The findings indicate that parents try to influence their daughters by searching for help, providing practical support, avoiding confrontation, complying with special requirements, persuading, explaining, and pressuring, using ploys and force, providing emotional support, and mediating interactions. Parents&rsquo; actions are influenced by how they construct anorexia, such as whether they see it as an eating issue, an illness, a psychological problem, a choice, or a mystery. Understanding parents&rsquo; actions and constructions can help clinicians develop collaborative partnerships with parents.<br /