Forward Stochastic Reachability Analysis for Uncontrolled Linear Systems using Fourier Transforms

We propose a scalable method for forward stochastic reachability analysis for uncontrolled linear systems with affine disturbance. Our method uses Fourier transforms to efficiently compute the forward stochastic reach probability measure (density) and the forward stochastic reach set. This method is applicable to systems with bounded or unbounded disturbance sets. We also examine the convexity properties of the forward stochastic reach set and its probability density. Motivated by the problem of a robot attempting to capture a stochastically moving, non-adversarial target, we demonstrate our method on two simple examples. Where traditional approaches provide approximations, our method provides exact analytical expressions for the densities and probability of capture.Comment: V3: HSCC 2017 (camera-ready copy), DOI updated, minor changes | V2: Review comments included | V1: 10 pages, 12 figure

The impact of design uncertainty in engineer-to-order project planning

A major driver of planning complexity in engineer-to-order (ETO) projects is design uncertainty far into the engineering and production processes. This leads to uncertainty in technical information and will typically lead to a revision of parts of the project network itself. Hence, this uncertainty is different from standard task completion uncertainty. We build a stochastic program to draw attention to, and analyse, the engineering-design planning problem, and in particular, to understand what role design flexibility plays in hedging against such uncertainty. The purpose is not to devise a general stochastic dynamic model to be used in practice, but to demonstrate by the use of small model instances how design flexibility actually adds value to a project and what, exactly, it is that produces this value. This will help us understand better where and when to develop flexibility and buffers, even when not actually solving stochastic models.acceptedVersio

Testing demand responsive shared transport services via agent-based simulations

Demand Responsive Shared Transport DRST services take advantage of Information and Communication Technologies ICT, to provide on demand transport services booking in real time a ride on a shared vehicle. In this paper, an agent-based model ABM is presented to test different the feasibility of different service configurations in a real context. First results show the impact of route choice strategy on the system performance

Time above the MIC of piperacillin-tazobactam as a predictor of outcome in pseudomonas aeruginosa bacteraemia.

All rights reserved. Pseudomonas aeruginosa bacteremia is an infection associated with a high mortality rate. Piperacillin-tazobactam is a β-lactam-β-lactamase inhibitor combination that is frequently used for the management of Pseudomonas aeruginosa infections. The pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic index associated with in vitro maximal bacterial killing for piperacillin-tazobactam is the percentage of the time between doses at which the free fraction concentration remains above the MIC (%fT>MIC). However, the precise %>MICtarget associated with improved clinical outcomes is unknown. The aim of this study was to investigate the correlation between the survival of patients with Pseudomonas aeruginosa bacteremia and the threshold of the piperacillin-tazobactam %fT>MIC. This retrospective study included all adult patients hospitalized over an 82-month period with Pseudomonas aeruginosa bacteremia and treated with piperacillin-tazobactam. Patients with a polymicrobial infection or those who died within 72 h of the time of collection of a sample for culture were excluded. The %fT>MICof piperacillin-tazobactam associated with in-hospital survival was derived using classification and regression tree analysis. After screening 270 patients, 78 were eligible for inclusion in the study; 18% died during hospitalization. Classification and regression tree analysis identified a %fT>MICof >60.68% to be associated with improved survival, and this remained statistically significant after controlling for clinical covariates (odds ratio=7.74, 95% confidence interval=1.32 to 45.2). In conclusion, the findings recommend dosing of piperacillintazobactam with the aim of achieving a pharmacodynamic target %fT>MICof at least 60% in these patients

Comparison of methods used in European National Forest Inventories for the estimation of volume increment: towards harmonisation

International audienceAbstractKey messageThe increment estimation methods of European NFIs were explored by means of 12 essential NFI features. The results indicate various differences among NFIs within the commonly acknowledged methodological frame. The perspectives for harmonisation at the European level are promising.ContextThe estimation of increment is implemented differently in European National Forest Inventories (NFIs) due to different historical origins of NFIs and sampling designs and field assessments accommodated to country-specific conditions. The aspired harmonisation of increment estimation requires a comparison and an analysis of NFI methods.AimsThe objective was to investigate the differences in volume increment estimation methods used in European NFIs. The conducted work shall set a basis for harmonisation at the European level which is needed to improve information on forest resources for various strategic processes. MethodsA comprehensive enquiry was conducted during Cost Action FP1001 to explore the methods of increment estimation of 29 European NFIs. The enquiry built upon the preceding Cost Action E43 and was complemented by an analysis of literature to demonstrate the methodological backgrounds. ResultsThe comparison of methods revealed differences concerning the NFI features such as sampling grids, periodicity of assessments, permanent and temporary plots, use of remote sensing, sample tree selection, components of forest growth, forest area changes, sampling thresholds, field measurements, drain assessment, involved models and tree parts included in estimates. ConclusionIncrement estimation methods differ considerably among European NFIs. Their harmonisation introduces new issues into the harmonisation process. Recent accomplishments and the increased use of sample-based inventories in Europe make perspectives for harmonised reporting of increment estimation promising

Electrical Stimulation Modulates High γ Activity and Human Memory Performance.

Direct electrical stimulation of the brain has emerged as a powerful treatment for multiple neurological diseases, and as a potential technique to enhance human cognition. Despite its application in a range of brain disorders, it remains unclear how stimulation of discrete brain areas affects memory performance and the underlying electrophysiological activities. Here, we investigated the effect of direct electrical stimulation in four brain regions known to support declarative memory: hippocampus (HP), parahippocampal region (PH) neocortex, prefrontal cortex (PF), and lateral temporal cortex (TC). Intracranial EEG recordings with stimulation were collected from 22 patients during performance of verbal memory tasks. We found that high γ (62-118 Hz) activity induced by word presentation was modulated by electrical stimulation. This modulatory effect was greatest for trials with poor memory encoding. The high γ modulation correlated with the behavioral effect of stimulation in a given brain region: it was negative, i.e., the induced high γ activity was decreased, in the regions where stimulation decreased memory performance, and positive in the lateral TC where memory enhancement was observed. Our results suggest that the effect of electrical stimulation on high γ activity induced by word presentation may be a useful biomarker for mapping memory networks and guiding therapeutic brain stimulation

Modellering av usikkerhet i numeriske likevektsmodeller med stokastisk scenariometode :

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Assessing forest availability for wood supply in Europe

The quantification of forests available for wood supply (FAWS) is essential for decision-making with regard to the maintenance and enhancement of forest resources and their contribution to the global carbon cycle. The provision of harmonized forest statistics is necessary for the development of forest associated policies and to support decision-making. Based on the National Forest Inventory (NFI) data from 13 European countries, we quantify and compare the areas and aboveground dry biomass (AGB) of FAWS and forest not available for wood supply (FNAWS) according to national and reference definitions by determining the restrictions and associated thresholds considered at country level to classify forests as FAWS or FNAWS. FAWS represent between 75 and 95 % of forest area and AGB for most of the countries in this study. Economic restrictions are the main factor limiting the availability of forests for wood supply, accounting for 67 % of the total FNAWS area and 56 % of the total FNAWS AGB, followed by environmental restrictions. Profitability, slope and accessibility as economic restrictions, and protected areas as environmental restrictions are the factors most frequently considered to distinguish between FAWS and FNAWS. With respect to the area of FNAWS associated with each type of restriction, an overlap among the restrictions of 13.7 % was identified. For most countries, the differences in the FNAWS areas and AGB estimates between national and reference definitions ranged from 0 to 5 %. These results highlight the applicability and reliability of a FAWS reference definition for most of the European countries studied, thereby facilitating a consistent approach to assess forests available for supply for the purpose of international reportinginfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio