Global change of land use systems : IMAGE: a new land allocation module

The Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE) aims at assessing the state of the environment taking into account the effects of human activities. Although human population often makes use of a land area to satisfy various needs, most of the current global land use datasets and models use a classification based on dominant land use/cover types disregarding the diversity and intensity of human activities. In this working document we investigate if the simulation of land use change and the IMAGE outcomes can be improved by using a classification based on land use systems. An expert based cluster analysis was used to identify and map land use systems. The analysis accounted for population density, accessibility, land use / cover types and livestock and provided a new insight on human interactions with the environment. Then, a conceptual framework was developed and implemented to simulate land use systems changes based on local conditions and demand for agricultural products and accounting for land management changes

N2O and NO emission from agricultural fields and soils under natural vegetation: summarizing available measurement data and modeling of global annual emissions

The number of published N2O and NO emissions measurements is increasing steadily, providing additional information about driving factors of these emissions and allowing an improvement of statistical N-emission models. We summarized information from 1008 N2O and 189 NO emission measurements for agricultural fields, and 207 N2O and 210 NO measurements for soils under natural vegetation. The factors that significantly influence agricultural N2O emissions were N application rate, crop type, fertilizer type, soil organic C content, soil pH and texture, and those for NO emissions include N application rate, soil N content and climate. Compared to an earlier analysis the 20% increase in the number of N2O measurements for agriculture did not yield more insight or reduced uncertainty, because the representation of environmental and management conditions in agro-ecosystems did not improve, while for NO emissions the additional measurements in agricultural systems did yield a considerable improvement. N2O emissions from soils under natural vegetation are significantly influenced by vegetation type, soil organic C content, soil pH, bulk density and drainage, while vegetation type and soil C content are major factors for NO emissions. Statistical models of these factors were used to calculate global annual emissions from fertilized cropland (3.3 Tg N2O-N and 1.4 Tg NO-N) and grassland (0.8 Tg N2O-N and 0.4 Tg NO-N). Global emissions were not calculated for soils under natural vegetation due to lack of data for many vegetation type

The protein puzzle : the consumption and production of meat, dairy and fish in the European Union

In het rapport 'The protein puzzle. The consumption and production of meat, dairy and fish in the European Union' brengen onderzoekers van het Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving (PBL) in kaart wat de gevolgen van de productie en consumptie van dierlijke eiwitten zijn voor milieu, natuur en gezondheid. Vervolgens schetst het PBL welke opties er in Europees verband zijn om de negatieve effecten te verminderen. Met deze studie verschaft het PBL relevante feiten en cijfers ten behoeve van het debat over eiwitconsumptie, inclusief een indicatie van de onzekerheden daarbij

Quickscan opbrengsten en efficiëntie in de gangbare en biologische akkerbouw, melkveehouderij , varkenshouderij en pluimveehouderij : deelstudie van project ‘Duurzame Eiwitvoorziening’

De centrale onderzoeksvraag van onderhavige studie is als volgt geformuleerd: “Wat zijn de gemiddelde verschillen in gewasopbrengsten en in dierlijke productie (kg per ha per jaar) tussen gangbare en biologische landbouw, en waardoor worden deze verschillen veroorzaakt?” Het blijkt niet eenvoudig te zijn om een zuivere vergelijking te maken, omdat er verschillen zijn in soorten en – variëteiten, in bouwplannen en voorvruchten, in doelstellingen en in bedrijfssystemen tussen biologische en gangbare landbouw. Een vergelijking tussen opbrengsten en efficiëntie van biologische en gangbare landbouw kan daarom gekarakteriseerd worden als een vergelijking tussen appels en peren

Stakeholder-designed scenarios for global food security assessments

To guide policymaking, decision makers require a good understanding of the long-term drivers of food security and their interactions. Scenario analysis is widely considered as the appropriate tool to assess ‘wicked problems’, such as ensuring global food security, that are characterized by a high level of complexity and uncertainty. This paper describes the development process, storylines and drivers of four new global scenarios that are specifically designed to explore global food security up to the year 2050. To ensure the relevance, credibility and legitimacy of the scenarios, they have been developed using a participatory process, involving a diverse group of stakeholders. The scenarios consist of storylines and a scenario database that presents projections for key drivers, which can be used as an input into global simulation models

Current challenges of implementing anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change in models contributing to climate change assessments

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from European Geosciences Union (EGU) via the DOI in this record.Land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) represents one of the key drivers of global environmental change. However, the processes and drivers of anthropogenic land-use activity are still overly simplistically implemented in terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs). The published results of these models are used in major assessments of processes and impacts of global environmental change, such as the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Fully coupled models of climate, land use and biogeochemical cycles to explore land use-climate interactions across spatial scales are currently not available. Instead, information on land use is provided as exogenous data from the land-use change modules of integrated assessment models (IAMs) to TBMs. In this article, we discuss, based on literature review and illustrative analysis of empirical and modeled LULCC data, three major challenges of this current LULCC representation and their implications for land use-climate interaction studies: (I) provision of consistent, harmonized, land-use time series spanning from historical reconstructions to future projections while accounting for uncertainties associated with different land-use modeling approaches, (II) accounting for sub-grid processes and bidirectional changes (gross changes) across spatial scales, and (III) the allocation strategy of independent land-use data at the grid cell level in TBMs. We discuss the factors that hamper the development of improved land-use representation, which sufficiently accounts for uncertainties in the land-use modeling process. We propose that LULCC data-provider and user communities should engage in the joint development and evaluation of enhanced LULCC time series, which account for the diversity of LULCC modeling and increasingly include empirically based information about sub-grid processes and land-use transition trajectories, to improve the representation of land use in TBMs. Moreover, we suggest concentrating on the development of integrated modeling frameworks that may provide further understanding of possible land-climate-society feedbacks.The research in this paper has been supported by the European Research Council under the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme project LUC4C (Grant No. 603542), ERC grant GLOLAND (No. 311819) and BiodivERsA project TALE (No. 832.14.006) funded by the Dutch National Science Foundation (NWO). This research contributes to the Global Land Project (www.globallandproject.org). This is paper number 26 of the Birmingham Institute of Forest Research

How will organic carbon stocks in mineral soils evolve under future climate? Global projections using RothC for a range of climate change scenarios

We use a soil carbon (C) model (RothC), driven by a range of climate models for a range of climate scenarios to examine the impacts of future climate on global soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks. The results suggest an overall global increase in SOC stocks by 2100 under all scenarios, but with a different extent of increase among the climate model and emissions scenarios. The impacts of projected land use changes are also simulated, but have relatively minor impacts at the global scale. Whether soils gain or lose SOC depends upon the balance between C inputs and decomposition. Changes in net primary production (NPP) change C inputs to the soil, whilst decomposition usually increases under warmer temperatures, but can also be slowed by decreased soil moisture. Underlying the global trend of increasing SOC under future climate is a complex pattern of regional SOC change. SOC losses are projected to occur in northern latitudes where higher SOC decomposition rates due to higher temperatures are not balanced by increased NPP, whereas in tropical regions, NPP increases override losses due to higher SOC decomposition. The spatial heterogeneity in the response of SOC to changing climate shows how delicately balanced the competing gain and loss processes are, with subtle changes in temperature, moisture, soil type and land use, interacting to determine whether SOC increases or decreases in the future. Our results suggest that we should stop looking for a single answer regarding whether SOC stocks will increase or decrease under future climate, since there is no single answer. Instead, we should focus on improving our prediction of the factors that determine the size and direction of change, and the land management practices that can be implemented to protect and enhance SOC stocks

IMAGE and MESSAGE Scenarios Limiting GHG Concentration to Low Levels

This report discusses the attainability of low greenhouse gas concentrations levels based on an analysis using two integrated assessment models (MESSAGE and IMAGE). Model runs were preformed which explored the feasibility of reaching radiative forcing levels in 2100 between 2.6 to 2.9 W/m2 above pre-industrial levels. Such low targets are necessary to limit global mean temperature increase to below 2oC compared to pre-industrial levels with high probability. The analysis examines the attainability of low targets systematically with respect to key uncertainties, including alternative baseline development pathways, availability of different technologies, emissions of bio-energy, and impacts of forestry and land use assumptions. A number of sensitivity tests were carried out to test the robustness of achieving low GHG concentration targets. The results from the two models are discussed in detail comprising energy profiles and emission pathways consistent with such low stabilization targets

Achieving Zero Hunger by 2030 A Review of Quantitative Assessments of Synergies and Tradeoffs amongst the UN Sustainable Development Goals

The Sustainable Development Goal 2 “Zero hunger” (SDG2) sets clear global targets for ensuring access to sufficient food and healthy nutrition for all by 2030, while keeping food systems within sustainable boundaries and protecting livelihoods. Yet, the current trends show the level of challenge ahead, especially as the COVID-19 pandemic worsens the global development prospects. Intrinsically, SDG2 presents some points of tension between its internal targets and brings some synergies but also strong trade-offs with other sustainable development goals. \textlessbr /\textgreater We summarize in this paper the main relations between SDG2 targets and the other development goals and explain how the modelling literature has analyzed the SDG interactions around “Zero hunger”. SDG2 integrates four ambitious objectives – adequate food, no malnutrition, in increased incomes for smallholders, greater sustainability – that will require careful implementation to be conducted in synergy. We show that the compatibility of these objectives will depend on the interplay of future food demand drivers and the contribution of productivity gains across the food system. \textlessbr /\textgreater Analyzing the SDGs’ interrelations reveals the strong synergies between SDG2 and some other basic subsistence goals, in particular, Goal 1 “No poverty” and Goal 3 “Good health and well- being”. These goals need to be jointly addressed in order to succeed in “Zero hunger”. Several other SDGs have been shown to be key enablers for SDG2, in particular on the socio-economic side. On the other hand, agricultural production substantially contributes to the risks of exceeding critical global sustainability thresholds. We illustrate how recent modelling work has shed light on the interface between future food and nutrition needs, and the various environmental dimensions. Specifically, several important SDGs have been shown to compete directly with SDG2 through their common demands for scarce natural resources – including land for climate (SDG13), for biodiversity (SDG15) and for cities (SDG11), as well as the provision of water, both for the environment and for human needs (SDG6). Quantitative assessments show that more efficient production systems and technologies, pricing of externalities, and integrated resource management can mitigate some of these tradeoffs, but are unlikely to succeed in resolving these altogether. \textlessbr /\textgreater The success of achieving SDG2 in the face of these challenges will require new investments, smoothly functioning trade and effective markets, as well as changes in consumption patterns. Forward-looking analyses of global food systems indicate that deep transformations combining various measures will be needed to simultaneously achieve SDG2 targets while remaining within the planetary boundaries. These require fundamental changes, both on the supply side and on the demand side, and highlight the importance of SDG12 on “responsible production and consumption”