Inference for structural impulse responses in SVAR-GARCH models

Conditional heteroskedasticity can be exploited to identify the structural vector autoregressions (SVAR) but the implications for inference on structural impulse responses have not been investigated in detail yet. We consider the conditionally heteroskedastic SVAR-GARCH model and propose a bootstrap-based inference procedure on structural impulse responses. We compare the finite-sample properties of our bootstrap method with those of two competing bootstrap methods via extensive Monte Carlo simulations. We also present a three-step estimation procedure of the parameters of the SVAR-GARCH model that promises numerical stability even in scenarios with small sample sizes and/or large dimensions

Quantum synchronization of a driven self-sustained oscillator.

Synchronization is a universal phenomenon that is important both in fundamental studies and in technical applications. Here we investigate synchronization in the simplest quantum-mechanical scenario possible, i.e., a quantum-mechanical self-sustained oscillator coupled to an external harmonic drive. Using the power spectrum we analyze synchronization in terms of frequency entrainment and frequency locking in close analogy to the classical case. We show that there is a steplike crossover to a synchronized state as a function of the driving strength. In contrast to the classical case, there is a finite threshold value in driving. Quantum noise reduces the synchronized region and leads to a deviation from strict frequency locking

Comparing several methods to compute joint prediction regions for path forecasts generated by vector autoregressions

Path forecasts, defined as sequences of individual forecasts, generated by vector autoregressions are widely used in applied work. It has been recognized that a profound econometric analysis often requires, besides the path forecast, a joint prediction region that contains the whole future path with a prespecified coverage probability. The forecasting literature offers several different methods for computing joint prediction regions, where the existing methods are either bootstrap based or rely on asymptotic results. The aim of this paper is to investigate the finite-sample performance of three methods for constructing joint prediction regions in various scenarios via Monte Carlo simulations

Neue Ansätze zur Beurteilung der Fahrsimulatorvalidität

Wie ein Literaturüberblick zeigt, beschränken sich die bisher durchgeführten Studien meist auf Kennwerte der Fahrzeugstabilisierung wie z. B. die Standardabweichung der Querposition auf dem Fahrstreifen. Um den Katalog der bestehenden Kennwerte zu erweitern werden das Stufenmodell der menschlichen Informationsverarbeitung von Wickens und Hollands (2000) sowie die Drei-Ebenen-Hierarchie der Fahrzeugführung nach Donges (1982) herangezogen. Beide stellen das Fahrerverhalten im gesamten Wirkungsgefüge Fahrer-Fahrzeug-Umwelt dar und bieten so einen Ansatz systematisch nach neuen Angriffspunkten für eine Validierung zu suchen. Anhand dieser Systematik werden exemplarisch Kenngrößen ausgewählt und anhand von Daten aus Feld- und Fahrsimulatorversuchen evaluiert (z. B. Blickbewegungsanalyse)

Übertragbarkeit des Längsführungsverhaltens von Simulatorstudien auf Realfahrten - Was macht der Fahrer im Simulator anders als im Feld?

In diesem Beitrag wird die Verhaltensvalidität von Fahrern in unterschiedlichen Untersuchungsumgebungen – Fahrsimulator und Realfahrzeug im öffentlichen Straßenverkehr – bei der Fahrzeuglängsführung anhand des Geschwindigkeitsübertretungsverhaltens und dem Abstandsverhalten bewertet

The Wooster Voice (Wooster, OH), 1946-10-04

The football team has sustained an abundance of injuries over the past week. Both staff and students are having difficulties with not have enough housing spaces, nor enough classrooms. The first year senate chair will be Don Shawver. Students have voted in favor for having a homecoming queen by 757 for and 128 against. On the thirteenth of October, the Inter-Club Council will be hosting a tea for any freshman girl who is interested in joining a section. A feature is written about how a Latin American student views the College of Wooster. Emory Anderson writes about how squirrels are slowly dominating the world.https://openworks.wooster.edu/voice1941-1950/1128/thumbnail.jp

Cardiovascular magnetic resonance risk stratification in patients with clinically suspected myocarditis

BACKGROUND: The diagnosis of myocarditis is challenging due to its varying clinical presentation. Since myocarditis can be associated with significant 5-year mortality, and postmortem data show myocarditis in almost 10% of all adults suffering sudden cardiac death, individual risk stratification for patients with suspected myocarditis is of great clinical interest. We sought to demonstrate that patients with clinically suspected myocarditis and a normal cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) according to our definition have a good prognosis, independent of their clinical symptoms and other findings. METHODS: Prospective clinical long-term follow-up of consecutive patients undergoing CMR for work-up of clinically suspected myocarditis at our institution in 2007-2008. RESULTS: Follow-up was available for n = 405 patients (all-comers, 54.8% inpatients, 38% outpatient referrals from cardiologists). Median follow-up time was 1591 days. CMR diagnosis was “myocarditis” in 28.8%, “normal” in 55.6% and “other pathology” in 15.6%. Normal CMR was defined as normal left ventricular (LV) volumes and normal left ventricular ejection fraction (LV-EF) in the absence of late Gadolinium Enhancement (LGE). The overall mortality was 3.2%. There were seven cardiac deaths during follow-up, in addition one aborted SCD and two patients had appropriate internal cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) shocks – all of these occurred in patients with abnormal CMR. Kaplan-Meier analysis with log-rank test showed significant difference for major adverse cardiac events (cardiac death, sudden cardiac death (SCD), ICD discharge, aborted SCD) between patients with normal and abnormal CMR (p = 0.0003). CONCLUSION: In our unselected population of consecutive patients referred for CMR work-up of clinically suspected myocarditis, patients with normal CMR have a good prognosis independent of their clinical symptoms and other findings

On the Impact of Additive Manufacturing Processes on the Microstructure and Magnetic Properties of Co–Ni–Ga Shape Memory Heusler Alloys

Microstructure design allows to prevent intergranular cracking and premature failure in Co–Ni–Ga shape memory alloys. Favorable grain boundary configurations are established using additive manufacturing techniques, namely, direct energy deposition (DED) and laser powder bed fusion (L‐PBF). L‐PBF allows to establish a columnar grain structure. In the Co–Ni–Ga alloy processed by DED, a microstructure with strong ⟨001⟩ texture is obtained. In line with optimized microstructures, the general transformation behavior is essential for performance. Transition parameters such as transition temperature and thermal hysteresis depend on chemical composition, homogeneity, and presence of precipitates. However, these parameters are highly dependent on the processing method used. Herein, the first‐order magnetostructural transformation and magnetization properties of Co–Ni–Ga processed by DED and L‐PBF are compared with single‐crystalline and as‐cast material. In the alloy processed by L‐PBF, Ga evaporation and extensive formation of the ferromagnetic Co‐rich γ'‐phase are observed, promoting a very wide transformation range and large thermal hysteresis. In comparison, following DED, the material is characterized by minor chemical inhomogeneity and transition and magnetization behavior being similar to that of a single crystal. This clearly renders DED‐processed Co–Ni–Ga to become a promising candidate material for future shape memory applications

Enhanced Conductivity and Microstructure in Highly Textured TiN1–x/c-Al2O3 Thin Films

Titanium nitride thin films are used as an electrode material in superconducting (SC) applications and in oxide electronics. By controlling the defect density in the TiN thin film, the electrical properties of the film can achieve low resistivities and a high critical temperature (Tc) close to bulk values. Generally, low defect densities are achieved by stoichiometric growth and a low grain boundary density. Due to the low lattice mismatch of 0.7%, the best performing TiN layers are grown epitaxially on MgO substrates. Here, we report for the first time a Tc of 4.9 K for ultrathin (23 nm), highly textured (111), and stoichiometric TiN films grown on 8.75% lattice mismatch c-cut Al₂O₃ (sapphire) substrates. We demonstrate that with the increasing nitrogen deficiency, the (111) lattice constant increases, which is accompanied by a decrease in Tc. For highly N deficient TiN thin films, no superconductivity could be observed. In addition, a dissociation of grain boundaries (GBs) by the emission of stacking faults could be observed, indicating a combination of two sources for electron scattering defects in the system: (a) volume defects created by nitrogen deficiency and (b) defects created by the presence of GBs. For all samples, the average grain boundary distance is kept constant by a miscut of the c-cut sapphire substrate, which allows us to distinguish the effect of nitrogen deficiency and grain boundary density. These properties and surface roughness govern the electrical performance of the films and influence the compatibility as an electrode material in the respective application. This study aims to provide detailed and scale-bridging insights into the structural and microstructural response to nitrogen deficiency in the c-Al₂O₃/TiN system, as it is a promising candidate for applications in state-of-the-art systems such as oxide electronic thin film stacks or SC applications