The current shortage and future surplus of doctors: a projection of the future growth of the Japanese medical workforce

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Starting in the late 1980s, the Japanese government decreased the number of students accepted into medical school each year in order to reduce healthcare spending. The result of this policy is a serious shortage of doctors in Japan today, which has become a social problem in recent years. In an attempt to solve this problem, the Japanese government decided in 2007 to increase the medical student quota from 7625 to 8848. Furthermore, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), Japan's ruling party after the 2009 election, promised in their manifesto to increase the medical student quota to 1.5 times what it was in 2007, in order to raise the number of medical doctors to more than 3.0 per 1000 persons. It should be noted, however, that this rapid increase in the medical student quota may bring about a serious doctor surplus in the future, especially because the population of Japan is decreasing.</p> <p>The purpose of this research is to project the future growth of the Japanese medical doctor workforce from 2008 to 2050 and to forecast whether the proposed additional increase in the student quota will cause a doctor surplus.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Simulation modeling of the Japanese medical workforce.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Even if the additional increase in the medical student quota promised by the DPJ fails, the number of practitioners is projected to increase from 286 699 (2.25 per 1000 persons) in 2008 to 365 533 (over the national numerical goal of 3.0 per 1000) in 2024. The number of practitioners per 1000 persons is projected to further increase to 3.10 in 2025, to 3.71 in 2035, and to 4.69 in 2050. If the additional increase in the medical student quota promised by the DPJ is realized, the total workforce is projected to rise to 392 331 (3.29 per 1000 persons) in 2025, 464 296 (4.20 per 1,000 persons) in 2035, and 545 230 (5.73 per 1000 persons) in 2050.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The plan to increase the medical student quota will bring about a serious doctor surplus in the long run.</p

The distribution and transitions of physicians in Japan: a 1974–2004 retrospective cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In Japan, physicians freely choose their specialty and workplace, because to date there is no management system to ensure a balanced distribution of physicians. Physicians in Japan start their careers in hospitals, then become specialists, and then gradually leave hospitals to work in private clinics and take on primary care roles in their specialty fields. The present study aimed to analyse national trends in the distribution and career transitions of physicians among types of facilities and specialties over a 30-year period.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We obtained an electronic file containing physician registration data from the Survey of Physicians, Dentists and Pharmacists. Descriptive statistics and data on movement between facilities (hospitals and clinics) for all physicians from 1974, 1984, 1994 and 2004 were analysed. Descriptive statistics for the groups of physicians who graduated in 1970, 1980 and 1990 were also analysed, and we examined these groups over time to evaluate their changes of occupation and specialty.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The number of physicians per 100 000 population was 113 in 1974, and rose to 212 by 2004. The number of physicians working in hospitals increased more than threefold. In Japan, while almost all physicians choose hospital-based positions at the beginning of their career, around 20% of physicians withdrew from hospitals within 10 years, and this trend of leaving hospitals was similar among generations. Physicians who graduated in 1980 and registered in general surgery, cardiovascular surgery or paediatric surgery were 10 times more likely to change their specialty, compared with those who registered in internal medicine. More than half of the physicians who registered in 1970 had changed their specialties within a period of 30 years.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The government should focus primarily on changing the physician fee schedule, with careful consideration of the balance between office-based physicians and hospital-based physicians and among specialties. To implement effective policies in managing health care human resources, policy-makers should also pay attention to continuously monitoring physicians' practising status and career motivations; and national consensus is needed regarding the number of physicians required in each type of facility and specialty as well as region.</p

Mortality and life expectancy of Yokkaichi Asthma patients, Japan: Late effects of air pollution in 1960–70s

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The incidence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and bronchial asthma began increasing in early 1960s in the population of Yokkaichi-city (Mie Prefecture, Japan). The cause of the disease was sulfur oxide air pollution, and it is known as Yokkaichi Asthma. The pollution markedly decreased by the end of 1970s; no new cases have been reported since 1988. This study aimed at examining the late effects of air pollution on the health of Yokkaichi Asthma patients.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Mortality rate and life expectancy of patients, registered between 1965 and 1988, were investigated from 1975 through 2000.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Mortality rates for COPD and asthma in patients from Yokkaichi-city were significantly higher than in the whole population of Mie Prefecture. For all ages (except for males between 80 and 84 years in 1985), the life expectancy of both males and females were significantly reduced in patients from Yokkaichi-city as compared with the whole population of Mie Prefecture. The potential gains in life expectancy excluding the mortality for respiratory diseases including COPD and asthma were larger for all ages in patients from Yokkaichi-city.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Mortality and life expectancy were adversely affected in patients from Yokkaichi-city, despite the fact that the air pollution problem has been already solved.</p

Relationship between risk information on total colonoscopy and patient preferences for colorectal cancer screening options: Analysis using the Analytic Hierarchy Process

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Although the fecal occult blood test (FOBT) is the preferred program for colorectal cancer screening in Japan, many medical institutions have recently begun to provide total colonoscopy (TCS) as an initial screening program. However, there are a number of severe risks associated with TCS, such as colorectal bleeding and perforation. The justification for performing such a procedure on healthy patients remains unclear. We used the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to investigate whether risk information on TCS affects patient preferences for colorectal cancer screening.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We performed a questionnaire survey using an AHP decision-making model, targeting 285 people aged 40–59 years. We randomly assigned the subjects into Groups A (n = 146) and B (n = 139). Both groups were provided with information on the effectiveness, cost and disadvantages of the two screening programs. Group A was provided with additional information regarding the risks of TCS. Individual priorities were calculated with pair-wise comparisons between the two alternatives in each selection criteria. The influence of the risk information was analyzed using a logistic regression analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The aggregated priorities in Group A for 'effectiveness', 'costs', and 'risks' were 0.603, 0.147, and 0.250, respectively, while those in Group B were 0.652, 0.149, and 0.199, respectively. A logistic regression analysis showed that the provision of risk information significantly reduced the subjects' priorities for TCS (p = 0.036).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The lack of risk information was related to the differences in priorities assigned to effectiveness and risks of the two procedures. Patients must be well informed before making decisions concerning their preferred colorectal cancer screening procedure.</p

Factors associated with intentions to adhere to colorectal cancer screening follow-up exams

BACKGROUND: To increase adherence rate to recommendations for follow-up after abnormal colorectal cancer (CRC) screening results, factors that inhibit and facilitate follow-up must be identified. The purpose of this study was to identify the factors associated with intention to adhere to CRC screening follow-up exams. METHODS: During a 4-week period in October 2003, this survey was conducted with 426 subjects participating in a community-based CRC screening program in Nagano, Japan. Study measures included intention to adhere to recommendation for clinical follow-up in the event of an abnormal fecal occult blood test (FOBT) result, perceived susceptibility and severity of CRC, perceived benefits and barriers related to undergoing follow-up examination, social support, knowledge of CRC risk factors, health status, previous CRC screening, personality and social demographic characteristics. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses on intention to adhere to recommendations for follow-up were performed. RESULTS: Among the 288 individuals analyzed, approximately 74.7% indicated that they would definitely adhere to recommendations for follow-up. After controlling for age, gender, marital status, education, economic status, trait anxiety, bowel symptoms, family history of CRC, and previous screening FOBT, analyses revealed that lower levels of perceived barriers, higher levers of perceived benefits and knowledge of CRC risk factors were significantly associated with high intention respectively. CONCLUSION: The results of this study suggest that future interventions should focus on reducing modifiable barriers by clarifying misperceptions about follow-up, promoting the acceptance of complete diagnostic evaluations, addressing psychological distress, and making follow-up testing more convenient and accessible. Moreover, educating the public regarding the risk factors of CRC and increasing understanding of the benefits of follow-up is also important