Should we doubt the cosmological constant?

While Bayesian model selection is a useful tool to discriminate between competing cosmological models, it only gives a relative rather than an absolute measure of how good a model is. Bayesian doubt introduces an unknown benchmark model against which the known models are compared, thereby obtaining an absolute measure of model performance in a Bayesian framework. We apply this new methodology to the problem of the dark energy equation of state, comparing an absolute upper bound on the Bayesian evidence for a presently unknown dark energy model against a collection of known models including a flat LambdaCDM scenario. We find a strong absolute upper bound to the Bayes factor B between the unknown model and LambdaCDM, giving B < 3. The posterior probability for doubt is found to be less than 6% (with a 1% prior doubt) while the probability for LambdaCDM rises from an initial 25% to just over 50% in light of the data. We conclude that LambdaCDM remains a sufficient phenomenological description of currently available observations and that there is little statistical room for model improvement.Comment: 10 pages, 2 figure

Cosmological Constant Problems and Renormalization Group

The Cosmological Constant Problem emerges when Quantum Field Theory is applied to the gravitational theory, due to the enormous magnitude of the induced energy of the vacuum. The unique known solution of this problem involves an extremely precise fine-tuning of the vacuum counterpart. We review a few of the existing approaches to this problem based on the account of the quantum (loop) effects and pay special attention to the ones involving the renormalization group.Comment: 12 pages, LaTeX, based on the on the talk at IRGAC-2006 (Barcelona, July 11-15, 2006), misprints corrected, comment on anthropic approach modified, some references added, accepted in Journal of Physics

Sinks in the Landscape, Boltzmann Brains, and the Cosmological Constant Problem

This paper extends the recent investigation of the string theory landscape in hep-th/0605266, where it was found that the decay rate of dS vacua to a collapsing space with a negative vacuum energy can be quite large. The parts of space that experience a decay to a collapsing space, or to a Minkowski vacuum, never return back to dS space. The channels of irreversible vacuum decay serve as sinks for the probability flow. The existence of such sinks is a distinguishing feature of the string theory landscape. We describe relations between several different probability measures for eternal inflation taking into account the existence of the sinks. The local (comoving) description of the inflationary multiverse suffers from the so-called Boltzmann brain (BB) problem unless the probability of the decay to the sinks is sufficiently large. We show that some versions of the global (volume-weighted) description do not have this problem even if one ignores the existence of the sinks. We argue that if the number of different vacua in the landscape is large enough, the anthropic solution of the cosmological constant problem in the string landscape scenario should be valid for a broad class of the probability measures which solve the BB problem. If this is correct, the solution of the cosmological constant problem may be essentially measure-independent. Finally, we describe a simplified approach to the calculations of anthropic probabilities in the landscape, which is less ambitious but also less ambiguous than other methods.Comment: 42 pages, 5 figures, the paper is substantially extended, a section on the cosmological constant is addeed; the version published in JCA

New varying speed of light theories

We review recent work on the possibility of a varying speed of light (VSL). We start by discussing the physical meaning of a varying $c$, dispelling the myth that the constancy of $c$ is a matter of logical consistency. We then summarize the main VSL mechanisms proposed so far: hard breaking of Lorentz invariance; bimetric theories (where the speeds of gravity and light are not the same); locally Lorentz invariant VSL theories; theories exhibiting a color dependent speed of light; varying $c$ induced by extra dimensions (e.g. in the brane-world scenario); and field theories where VSL results from vacuum polarization or CPT violation. We show how VSL scenarios may solve the cosmological problems usually tackled by inflation, and also how they may produce a scale-invariant spectrum of Gaussian fluctuations, capable of explaining the WMAP data. We then review the connection between VSL and theories of quantum gravity, showing how ``doubly special'' relativity has emerged as a VSL effective model of quantum space-time, with observational implications for ultra high energy cosmic rays and gamma ray bursts. Some recent work on the physics of ``black'' holes and other compact objects in VSL theories is also described, highlighting phenomena associated with spatial (as opposed to temporal) variations in $c$. Finally we describe the observational status of the theory. The evidence is currently slim -- redshift dependence in the atomic fine structure, anomalies with ultra high energy cosmic rays, and (to a much lesser extent) the acceleration of the universe and the WMAP data. The constraints (e.g. those arising from nucleosynthesis or geological bounds) are tight, but not insurmountable. We conclude with the observational predictions of the theory, and the prospects for its refutation or vindication.Comment: Final versio

Improved constraints on cosmological parameters from SNIa data

We present a new method based on a Bayesian hierarchical model to extract constraints on cosmological parameters from SNIa data obtained with the SALT-II lightcurve fitter. We demonstrate with simulated data sets that our method delivers tighter statistical constraints on the cosmological parameters over 90% of the time, that it reduces statistical bias typically by a factor ~ 2-3 and that it has better coverage properties than the usual chi-squared approach. As a further benefit, a full posterior probability distribution for the dispersion of the intrinsic magnitude of SNe is obtained. We apply this method to recent SNIa data, and by combining them with CMB and BAO data we obtain Omega_m=0.28 +/- 0.02, Omega_Lambda=0.73 +/- 0.01 (assuming w=-1) and Omega_m=0.28 +/- 0.01, w=-0.90 +/- 0.05 (assuming flatness; statistical uncertainties only). We constrain the intrinsic dispersion of the B-band magnitude of the SNIa population, obtaining sigma_mu^int = 0.13 +/- 0.01 [mag]. Applications to systematic uncertainties will be discussed in a forthcoming paper.Comment: Enlarged prior on w (down to w>-4), resulting in better coverage for this parameter. Main results unchanged. Matched version accepted by MNRA