Atmospheric circulation as a factor of spatial distribution of air temperaure and precipitation in Serbia.

У раду је анализиран утицај циркулације атмосфере на температуре ваздуха и падавине на простору Србије. Циркулација атмосфере је веома сложен комплекс физичких механизама којима се обавља размена ваздушних маса на Земљи и као таква представља значајан фактор расподеле вредности климатских елемената на одређеном простору. Типологије циркулације атмосфере омогућавају сагледавање њених особина и анализу утицаја на време и климу. Познавање одлика учесталости и постојаности циркулационих типова је веома важно у студијама климатске варијабилности. Постоји велики број различитих типологија и задатак овог истраживања је одабир најпогоднијих за анализу температурних и падавинских услова у Србији. Стандардизација различитих типологија са истим класификованим подацима, на истом простору и са истим бројем типова омогућава упоредивост различитих каталога циркулационих типова чиме је олакшан њихов одабир у даљем истраживању...This study explores the impact of atmospheric circulation on air temperatures and precipitation on the territory of Serbia. Atmospheric circulation represents the complex of physical mechanisms by which exchange of air masses on the Earth is done and it is a factor of spatial distributions of climate parameters in certain area. Typologies of atmospheric circulation patterns are very useful tools in climate studies for analysis the features of atmospheric circulation and for evaluation of its impact on weather and climate. The study of the changes in frequency and persistency of circulation types is very important for understanding of climate variability. There is a large number of typologies and the aim of this research is to select the most suitable for the analysis of temperatures and precipitation conditions in Serbia. In order to choose the best typology it is necessary to standardize various classification methods with the same classified data, for the same spatial domains, and with uniform number of types..

Cirkulacija atmosfere i kolebanje padavina u Srbiji u periodu 1949-2004

In this paper we have analyzed the correlation between the atmospheric circulation and annual precipitation in Serbia for period 1949-2004. The data for frequency Hess-Brezowsky circulation forms and types were used as indicators of atmospheric circulation. Statistically significant coefficient of a negative sign is obtained for zonal and half-meridional form and a positive sign for meridional form. The strength of correlation is not uniform in the space. According to the multiple linear regression the contribution of atmospheric circulation in the variability annual precipitation of Serbia is 69%. Also, we analyzed the connection between the atmospheric circulation and the mean annual cloudiness. Comparing the results for this two climate elements we have concluded that they show different time-space development for same macrosynoptic conditions. Also, we can speak about the regional aspects of these processes. .U ovom radu analizirana je povezanost između cirkulacije atmosfere i godišnjih padavinskih suma u Srbiji za period 1949-2004. Kao pokazatelji cirkulacije atmosfere korišćeni su podaci za učestalost Hes-Brezovski cirkulacionih formi i tipova. Statistički značajna veza negativnog znaka dobija se za zonalnu i polumeridionalnu formu i pozitivnog znaka za meridionalnu formu. Pokazane su i neravnomernosti u prostornom rasporedu jačine veze. Zahvaćenost varijanse godišnjih suma padavina Srbije u celini cirkulacijom atmosfere je 69%. U radu je takođe analizirana veza između cirkulacije atmosfere i srednje godišnje oblačnosti u Srbiji. Poređenjem rezultata za ova dva klimatska elementa zaključuje se da oni pokazuju različit prostorno-vremenski razvoj pri istim makrosinoptičkim uslovima. Takođe, može se govoriti i o regionalnom aspektu navedenih procesa.

Cirkulacija atmosfere i kolebanje padavina u Srbiji u periodu 1949-2004

In this paper we have analyzed the correlation between the atmospheric circulation and annual precipitation in Serbia for period 1949-2004. The data for frequency Hess-Brezowsky circulation forms and types were used as indicators of atmospheric circulation. Statistically significant coefficient of a negative sign is obtained for zonal and half-meridional form and a positive sign for meridional form. The strength of correlation is not uniform in the space. According to the multiple linear regression the contribution of atmospheric circulation in the variability annual precipitation of Serbia is 69%. Also, we analyzed the connection between the atmospheric circulation and the mean annual cloudiness. Comparing the results for this two climate elements we have concluded that they show different time-space development for same macrosynoptic conditions. Also, we can speak about the regional aspects of these processes. .U ovom radu analizirana je povezanost između cirkulacije atmosfere i godišnjih padavinskih suma u Srbiji za period 1949-2004. Kao pokazatelji cirkulacije atmosfere korišćeni su podaci za učestalost Hes-Brezovski cirkulacionih formi i tipova. Statistički značajna veza negativnog znaka dobija se za zonalnu i polumeridionalnu formu i pozitivnog znaka za meridionalnu formu. Pokazane su i neravnomernosti u prostornom rasporedu jačine veze. Zahvaćenost varijanse godišnjih suma padavina Srbije u celini cirkulacijom atmosfere je 69%. U radu je takođe analizirana veza između cirkulacije atmosfere i srednje godišnje oblačnosti u Srbiji. Poređenjem rezultata za ova dva klimatska elementa zaključuje se da oni pokazuju različit prostorno-vremenski razvoj pri istim makrosinoptičkim uslovima. Takođe, može se govoriti i o regionalnom aspektu navedenih procesa.

Promene količine padavina u Podgorici u periodu 1951-2010

The global warming and climate change are the actual and challenging topics. Recently there is one question, frequently asked: whether today's climate is changing? The studies of this issues are mainly related to the two the most important climatic elements - air temperature and precipitation amounts. We have done research about temperature variability for Montenegro and the main aim of this paper is analysis precipitation changes for station Podgorica (Montenegro) in the period of systematic observation - are there changes, to what extent and whether they are significant. According to the results, accumulated precipitation do not show significant changes for annual and seasonal values in the period 1951-2010. The interannual variations of the precipitation (which are characteristic for this climate element) do not show increases in recent times. The component trend shows some changes, but statistically insignificant. The previous results for precipitation conditions in Podgorica are not in accordance with the concept of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which predicted a general decrease in precipitation and increase variability on this area.Globalno otopljavanje i kolebanje klime je aktuelna i izazovna tema. Pitanje koje se u poslednje vreme najčešće postavlja je: da li se menja današnja klima? Istraživanja iz ove problematike su uglavnom vezana za dva najvažnija klimatska elementa - temperaturu vazduha i količinu padavina. Obzirom da smo neka istraživanja već radili, a bila su vezana za utvrđivanje promena temperature vazduha u Crnoj Gori, osnovni cilj ovog rada je bio da se utvrdi šta se dešava sa padavinskim prilikama u Podgorici u periodu sistematskih osmatranja - da li promene postoje, u kojem obimu i da li su one značajne. Dobijeni rezultati ukazuju da se sa akumuliranim padavinama u Podgorici, u periodu 1951-2010., ništa bitnije ne dešava, kako na sezonskom tako i na godišnjem nivou. Međugodišnje varijacije, koje inače karakterišu ovaj element, nisu povećane u poslednje vreme. Trend komponenta pokazuje izvesne promene, ali su one statistički nesignifikantne. Dosadašnji rezultati istraživanja padavinskih prilika na području Podgorice ne uklapaju se sasvim u koncept Međuvladinog panela za klimatske promene (IPCC), koji predviđa opšte smanjenje količine padavina u našim krajevima i povećanje varijabilnosti

The changes of precipitation in Podgorica for period 1951-2010

Globalno otopljavanje i kolebanje klime je aktuelna i izazovna tema. Pitanje koje se u poslednje vreme najčešće postavlja je: da li se menja današnja klima? Istraživanja iz ove problematike su uglavnom vezana za dva najvažnija klimatska elementa - temperaturu vazduha i količinu padavina. Obzirom da smo neka istraživanja već radili, a bila su vezana za utvrđivanje promena temperature vazduha u Crnoj Gori, osnovni cilj ovog rada je bio da se utvrdi šta se dešava sa padavinskim prilikama u Podgorici u periodu sistematskih osmatranja - da li promene postoje, u kojem obimu i da li su one značajne. Dobijeni rezultati ukazuju da se sa akumuliranim padavinama u Podgorici, u periodu 1951-2010., ništa bitnije ne dešava, kako na sezonskom tako i na godišnjem nivou. Međugodišnje varijacije, koje inače karakterišu ovaj element, nisu povećane u poslednje vreme. Trend komponenta pokazuje izvesne promene, ali su one statistički nesignifikantne. Dosadašnji rezultati istraživanja padavinskih prilika na području Podgorice ne uklapaju se sasvim u koncept Međuvladinog panela za klimatske promene (IPCC), koji predviđa opšte smanjenje količine padavina u našim krajevima i povećanje varijabilnosti.The global warming and climate change are the actual and challenging topics. Recently there is one question, frequently asked: whether today's climate is changing? The studies of this issues are mainly related to the two the most important climatic elements - air temperature and precipitation amounts. We have done research about temperature variability for Montenegro and the main aim of this paper is analysis precipitation changes for station Podgorica (Montenegro) in the period of systematic observation - are there changes, to what extent and whether they are significant. According to the results, accumulated precipitation do not show significant changes for annual and seasonal values in the period 1951-2010. The interannual variations of the precipitation (which are characteristic for this climate element) do not show increases in recent times. The component trend shows some changes, but statistically insignificant. The previous results for precipitation conditions in Podgorica are not in accordance with the concept of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which predicted a general decrease in precipitation and increase variability on this area

Estimation of photovoltaic power generation potential in Serbia based on irradiance, air temperature, and wind speed data

This study is devoted to the research of spatial-temporal variation of electricity generation from the kilowatt-peak photovoltaic system made of crystalline silicon solar cells. The research was conducted in the territory of Serbia using the model for estimation photovoltaic performances as a function of incident irradiance and module temperature. Preparation of input data and calculation of the final results was done within the geographical information system. Some of the required raster data, like solar irradiance and wind speed, were already available, while air temperature raster was created from discrete set of observed data using the regression-kriging model. Obtained results were presented in the form of raster maps that enabled further analysis and discussion about new findings. The analysis of seasonal variations reveals that during spring and summer months photovoltaic systems are producing up to 70% of total annual electricity yield. In terms of the spatial distribution, the most promising areas for electricity generation are located in the south part of Serbia and along main river valleys. In addition, discussion part addresses the issue of data imperfection caused by the accuracy of the selected model, as well as quality and availability of data series

The influence of solar activities on occurrence of the forest fires in south Europe

In mid-July 2012, hundreds of fires spread over forest stands in the south of Europe. Considering available satellite and meteorological data we have tried to determine a method using analogy, whether these fires were preceded by the intensified solar activity. The justification of this approach lies in the belief that it is impossible by direct or indirect activity of man to set fire at the same time to the sites that are geographically separated. In this paper we have tried to test the hypothesis claiming that charged particles coming to us from the Sun may be responsible for the number of forest fires. Unlike some other situations when the potential explanation could be a sudden influx of the protons of different energy ranges, in our study, there are electrons as carriers of the potential explanation. Many previous studies results have shown that there is statistically significant relationship between the processes on the Sun and certain movements of air masses in the atmosphere our planet. The presented results in this paper of the correlation relationships between the mean hourly flows of electrons and the mean hourly air temperatures in Belgrade and Rome and the analysis of the synoptic situation as a function of the suggested model so far, indicate that the number of fires that were occurring more than a week, from July 15, 2012, in the south of Europe, were caused by electrons coming from the Sun

Promene količine padavina u Podgorici u periodu 1951-2010

The global warming and climate change are the actual and challenging topics. Recently there is one question, frequently asked: whether today's climate is changing? The studies of this issues are mainly related to the two the most important climatic elements - air temperature and precipitation amounts. We have done research about temperature variability for Montenegro and the main aim of this paper is analysis precipitation changes for station Podgorica (Montenegro) in the period of systematic observation - are there changes, to what extent and whether they are significant. According to the results, accumulated precipitation do not show significant changes for annual and seasonal values in the period 1951-2010. The interannual variations of the precipitation (which are characteristic for this climate element) do not show increases in recent times. The component trend shows some changes, but statistically insignificant. The previous results for precipitation conditions in Podgorica are not in accordance with the concept of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which predicted a general decrease in precipitation and increase variability on this area.Globalno otopljavanje i kolebanje klime je aktuelna i izazovna tema. Pitanje koje se u poslednje vreme najčešće postavlja je: da li se menja današnja klima? Istraživanja iz ove problematike su uglavnom vezana za dva najvažnija klimatska elementa - temperaturu vazduha i količinu padavina. Obzirom da smo neka istraživanja već radili, a bila su vezana za utvrđivanje promena temperature vazduha u Crnoj Gori, osnovni cilj ovog rada je bio da se utvrdi šta se dešava sa padavinskim prilikama u Podgorici u periodu sistematskih osmatranja - da li promene postoje, u kojem obimu i da li su one značajne. Dobijeni rezultati ukazuju da se sa akumuliranim padavinama u Podgorici, u periodu 1951-2010., ništa bitnije ne dešava, kako na sezonskom tako i na godišnjem nivou. Međugodišnje varijacije, koje inače karakterišu ovaj element, nisu povećane u poslednje vreme. Trend komponenta pokazuje izvesne promene, ali su one statistički nesignifikantne. Dosadašnji rezultati istraživanja padavinskih prilika na području Podgorice ne uklapaju se sasvim u koncept Međuvladinog panela za klimatske promene (IPCC), koji predviđa opšte smanjenje količine padavina u našim krajevima i povećanje varijabilnosti

Klimatske promene i vodnost reka - primer Kolubare, Beli brod

This paper analyzes climate change and its impact on river discharge. This issue is very well studied worldwide, but in Serbia so far has been poorly studied. The first part of the paper presents the views of two different opinions, those who favored anthropogenic impact on the increasing greenhouse effect, and those who say that this is due to natural factors. Most attention is paid to changes in temperature and precipitation patterns. Classification by the group of those who favor the promotion of natural phenomena is demonstrated through the analysis of river flow fluctuations in the hydrological gauge Beli brod located on Kolubara River.U radu se analiziraju klimatske promene i njihov uticaj na vodnost reka. Ova problematika je veoma aktuelna u svetu, mada se u Srbiji njoj nije dovoljno poklanjala pažnja. U prvom delu rada se iznose stavovi dve nepomirljive pozicije, onih koji protežiraju stav o uticaju ljudi na pojačavanje efekta staklene bašte, i onih koji ističu da je to posledica prirodnih faktora. Najviše pažnje se poklanja promenama temperature i padavina. Svrstavanje autora u grupu onih koji su skloniji isticanju prirodnih fenomena je pokazano kroz analizu kolebanja proticaja reke Kolubare na hidrološkoj stanice Beli Brod

Climate change and river discharge: Case study Kolubara River, Beli brod hydrological gauge

U radu se analiziraju klimatske promene i njihov uticaj na vodnost reka. Ova problematika je veoma aktuelna u svetu, mada se u Srbiji njoj nije dovoljno poklanjala pažnja. U prvom delu rada se iznose stavovi dve nepomirljive pozicije, onih koji protežiraju stav o uticaju ljudi na pojačavanje efekta staklene bašte, i onih koji ističu da je to posledica prirodnih faktora. Najviše pažnje se poklanja promenama temperature i padavina. Svrstavanje autora u grupu onih koji su skloniji isticanju prirodnih fenomena je pokazano kroz analizu kolebanja proticaja reke Kolubare na hidrološkoj stanice Beli Brod.This paper analyzes climate change and its impact on river discharge. This issue is very well studied worldwide, but in Serbia so far has been poorly studied. The first part of the paper presents the views of two different opinions, those who favored anthropogenic impact on the increasing greenhouse effect, and those who say that this is due to natural factors. Most attention is paid to changes in temperature and precipitation patterns. Classification by the group of those who favor the promotion of natural phenomena is demonstrated through the analysis of river flow fluctuations in the hydrological gauge Beli brod located on Kolubara River