Supply Function Equilibria with Capacity Constraints and Pivotal Suppliers

The concept of a supply function equilibrium (SFE) has been widely used to model generators’ bidding behavior and market power issues in wholesale electricity markets. Observers of electricity markets have noted how generation capacity constraints may contribute to market power of generation firms. If a generation firm’s rivals are capacity constrained then the firm may be pivotal; that is, the firm could substantially raise the market price by unilaterally withholding output. However the SFE literature has not properly analyzed the impact of capacity constraints and pivotal firms on equilibrium predictions. We characterize the set of symmetric supply function equilibria for uniform price auctions when firms are capacity constrained and show that this set is increasing as capacity per firm rises. We provide conditions under which asymmetric equilibria exist and characterize these equilibria. In addition, we compare results for uniform price auctions to those for discriminatory auctions, and we compare our SFE predictions to equilibrium predictions of models in which bidders are constrained to bid on discrete units of output.supply function equilibrium, pivotal firm, wholesale electricity market

Optimal monopoly investment and capacity utilization under random demand

Unique value-maximizing programs of irreversible capacity investment and capacity utilization are described and shown to exist under general conditions for monopolist exhibiting capital adjustment costs and serving random consumer demand for a nondurable good over an infinite horizon. Stationary properties of these programs are then fully characterized under the assumption of serially independent demand disturbances. Optimal monopoly behavior in this case includes acquisition of a constant and positive level of capacity, the maintenance of a positive expected value of excess capacity in each period, and an asymmetrical response of price to unanticipated fluctuations in consumer demand. Under a general form of Markovian demand, the effect of uncertainty on irreversible capacity investment is also described in terms of the discounted flow of expected revenue accruing to the marginal unit of existing capacity and the option value of deferring the acquisition of additional capital. The option value of deferring such acquisition, created by the irreversibility of capacity investment, is characterized directly in terms of the value function of the firm, and is then shown to be zero in a stationary equilibrium with serially independent demand disturbances. The response of investment to increase demand uncertainty depends, as a result, directly on the properties of the marginal revenue product of capital. A non-negative response of optimal capacity to increased uncertainty in market demand is demonstrated for a general class of aggregate consumer preferences.Industrial capacity

Intermittency and the Value of Renewable Energy

A key problem with renewable energy is intermittency. This paper develops a method to quantify the social costs of large-scale renewable energy generation. The method is based on a theoretical model of electricity system operations that allows for endogenous choices of generation capacity investment, reserve operations, and demand-side management. We estimate the model using generator characteristics, solar output, electricity demand, and weather forecasts for an electric utility in southeastern Arizona. The estimated welfare loss associated with a 20% solar photovoltaic mandate is 11% higher than the average cost difference between solar generation and natural gas generation. Unforecastable intermittency yields welfare loss equal to 3% of the average cost of solar. Eliminating a mandate provision requiring a minimum percentage of distributed solar generation increases welfare. With a $21/ton social cost of CO2 this mandate is welfare neutral if solar capacity costs decrease by 65%.

Modeling bursts and heavy tails in human dynamics

Current models of human dynamics, used from risk assessment to communications, assume that human actions are randomly distributed in time and thus well approximated by Poisson processes. We provide direct evidence that for five human activity patterns the timing of individual human actions follow non-Poisson statistics, characterized by bursts of rapidly occurring events separated by long periods of inactivity. We show that the bursty nature of human behavior is a consequence of a decision based queuing process: when individuals execute tasks based on some perceived priority, the timing of the tasks will be heavy tailed, most tasks being rapidly executed, while a few experiencing very long waiting times. We discuss two queueing models that capture human activity. The first model assumes that there are no limitations on the number of tasks an individual can hadle at any time, predicting that the waiting time of the individual tasks follow a heavy tailed distribution with exponent alpha=3/2. The second model imposes limitations on the queue length, resulting in alpha=1. We provide empirical evidence supporting the relevance of these two models to human activity patterns. Finally, we discuss possible extension of the proposed queueing models and outline some future challenges in exploring the statistical mechanisms of human dynamics.Comment: RevTex, 19 pages, 8 figure

Cytomegalovirus Infection of the Cervix Detected By Cytology and Histology: A Report of Five Cases

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/72846/1/j.1365-2303.1993.tb00094.x.pd

Demonstration of Pemphigus Antibodies on the Cell Surface of Murine Epidermal Cell Monolayers and their Internalization

The pathogenic effects of pemphigus vulgaris (PV) antibodies on epidermal cells can be demonstrated both in vitro using skin organ culture or primary epidermal cell cultures (PECC) and in vivo by passive transfer of PV antibodies into neonatal BALB/c mice. Although PV antibodies have been localized on the epidermal cell surface by several techniques, little is known about the fate of these autoantibodies subsequent to their surface binding. We have examined this, using murine PECC which express pemphigus antigen on their surface, and followed the fate of the bound antibody molecules. Forty-eight-hour PECC were incubated at 37°C with PV antibodies for 20 min and then with horseradish peroxidase-labelled antihuman IgG. This was considered time 0. The monolayers were fixed with glutaraldehyde after 0, 0.5, 1, 3, 6, 18, and 24 h incubation at 37°C and then processed for electron microscopy. At time 0 hour, PV antibodies is detected bound evenly along the surface of keratinocytes. Within 30 min, the bound PV antibodies becomes clustered, internalized into submembranous vesicles via surface pits, and eventually fused with lysosomes. Widening of the intercellular spaces was also seen in PECC treated with PV antibodies within the first 24 h. PECC treated with normal human IgG in parallel cultures showed no such surface binding, internalization, or cell-cell detachment. Treatment with cytochalasin-D and/or colchicine did not affect the internalization of the PV antibodies, but fusion with lysosomes was not seen in treated cultures.These findings suggest that PV antibodies binds a surface antigen and the complex is internalized and fused with lysosomes in a process that may have pathophysiologic relevance

Reporting animal research:Explanation and elaboration for the ARRIVE guidelines 2.0

Improving the reproducibility of biomedical research is a major challenge. Transparent and accurate reporting is vital to this process; it allows readers to assess the reliability of the findings and repeat or build upon the work of other researchers. The ARRIVE guidelines (Animal Research: Reporting In Vivo Experiments) were developed in 2010 to help authors and journals identify the minimum information necessary to report in publications describing in vivo experiments. Despite widespread endorsement by the scientific community, the impact of ARRIVE on the transparency of reporting in animal research publications has been limited. We have revised the ARRIVE guidelines to update them and facilitate their use in practice. The revised guidelines are published alongside this paper. This explanation and elaboration document was developed as part of the revision. It provides further information about each of the 21 items in ARRIVE 2.0, including the rationale and supporting evidence for their inclusion in the guidelines, elaboration of details to report, and examples of good reporting from the published literature. This document also covers advice and best practice in the design and conduct of animal studies to support researchers in improving standards from the start of the experimental design process through to publication

On the Functional Significance of the P1 and N1 Effects to Illusory Figures in the Notch Mode of Presentation

The processing of Kanizsa figures have classically been studied by flashing the full “pacmen” inducers at stimulus onset. A recent study, however, has shown that it is advantageous to present illusory figures in the “notch” mode of presentation, that is by leaving the round inducers on screen at all times and by removing the inward-oriented notches delineating the illusory figure at stimulus onset. Indeed, using the notch mode of presentation, novel P1and N1 effects have been found when comparing visual potentials (VEPs) evoked by an illusory figure and the VEPs to a control figure whose onset corresponds to the removal of outward-oriented notches, which prevents their integration into one delineated form. In Experiment 1, we replicated these findings, the illusory figure was found to evoke a larger P1 and a smaller N1 than its control. In Experiment 2, real grey squares were placed over the notches so that one condition, that with inward-oriented notches, shows a large central grey square and the other condition, that with outward-oriented notches, shows four unconnected smaller grey squares. In response to these “real” figures, no P1 effect was found but a N1 effect comparable to the one obtained with illusory figures was observed. Taken together, these results suggest that the P1 effect observed with illusory figures is likely specific to the processing of the illusory features of the figures. Conversely, the fact that the N1 effect was also obtained with real figures indicates that this effect may be due to more global processes related to depth segmentation or surface/object perception