A Dynamic Model of Political Party Equilibrium: the evolution of ENP in Canada, 1870 – 2011

The effective number of political parties (ENP) in a first-past-the-post single member (SMP) electoral system is analyzed as a dynamic process whereby the tournament nature of the election contest induces excessive entry and sunk entry costs promote persistence even as Duverger-Demsetz type political competition works to winnow unsuccessful minor candidates and parties. The result is a fringe of ever changing marginal parties circulating in long run equilibrium. The factors hypothesized to affect the entry and exit of candidates and parties are analyzed first using an auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model whose advantage is that it allows the separation of an evolving long run equilibrium from short run variations in response to transitory changes in conditioning variables and the process of converging back to the long run equilibrium. The possibility that the short run adjustment process is asymmetric either for parties or candidates is tested using panel estimation techniques. The results are consistent with an observed time path that incorporates slower adjustment to positive as opposed to negative shocks. Variations in the size and trend of both the long and short run are then examined for ENP’s ability to predict changes in the competitiveness of the Canadian federal electoral system

Multi-decadal improvement in US Lake water clarity

Across the globe, recent work examining the state of freshwater resources paints an increasingly dire picture of degraded water quality. However, much of this work either focuses on a small subset of large waterbodies or uses in situ water quality datasets that contain biases in when and where sampling occurred. Using these unrepresentative samples limits our understanding of landscape level changes in aquatic systems. In lakes, overall water clarity provides a strong proxy for water quality because it responds to surrounding atmospheric and terrestrial processes. Here, we use satellite remote sensing of over 14 000 lakes to show that lake water clarity in the U.S. has increased by an average of 0.52 cm yr-1 since 1984. The largest increases occurred prior to 2000 in densely populated catchments and within smaller waterbodies. This is consistent with observed improvements in water quality in U.S. streams and lakes stemming from sweeping environmental reforms in the 1970s and 1980s that prioritized point-source pollution in largely urban areas. The comprehensive, long-term trends presented here emphasize the need for representative sampling of freshwater resources when examining macroscale trends and are consistent with the idea that extensive U.S. freshwater pollution abatement measures have been effective and enduring, at least for point-source pollution controls

Discussions and Reviews : Theorizing about theory in international politics

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/66906/2/10.1177_002200276000400405.pd

Autoimmune and infectious skin diseases that target desmogleins

Desmosomes are intercellular adhesive junctions of epithelial cells that contain two major transmembrane components, the desmogleins (Dsg) and desmocollins (Dsc), which are cadherin-type cell–cell adhesion molecules and are anchored to intermediate filaments of keratin through interactions with plakoglobin and desmoplakin. Desmosomes play an important role in maintaining the proper structure and barrier function of the epidermis and mucous epithelia. Four Dsg isoforms have been identified to date, Dsg1–Dsg4, and are involved in several skin and heart diseases. Dsg1 and Dsg3 are the two major Dsg isoforms in the skin and mucous membranes, and are targeted by IgG autoantibodies in pemphigus, an autoimmune disease of the skin and mucous membranes. Dsg1 is also targeted by exfoliative toxin (ET) released by Staphylococcus aureus in the infectious skin diseases bullous impetigo and staphylococcal scalded skin syndrome (SSSS). ET is a unique serine protease that shows lock and key specificity to Dsg1. Dsg2 is expressed in all tissues possessing desmosomes, including simple epithelia and myocardia, and mutations in this gene are responsible for arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy/dysplasia. Dsg4 plays an important adhesive role mainly in hair follicles, and Dsg4 mutations cause abnormal hair development. Recently, an active disease model for pemphigus was generated by a unique approach using autoantigen-deficient mice that do not acquire tolerance against the defective autoantigen. Adoptive transfer of Dsg3−/− lymphocytes into mice expressing Dsg3 induces stable anti-Dsg3 IgG production with development of the pemphigus phenotype. This mouse model is a valuable tool with which to investigate immunological mechanisms of harmful IgG autoantibody production in pemphigus. Further investigation of desmoglein molecules will continue to provide insight into the unsolved pathophysiological mechanisms of diseases and aid in the development of novel therapeutic strategies with minimal side effects

Sustained focal cortical compression reduces electrically-induced seizure threshold

Machine learning (ML) is increasingly being used in high-stakes applications impacting society. Therefore, it is of critical importance that ML models do not propagate discrimination. Collecting accurate labeled data in societal applications is challenging and costly. Active learning is a promising approach to build an accurate classifier by interactively querying an oracle within a labeling budget. We design algorithms for fair active learning that carefully selects data points to be labeled so as to balance model accuracy and fairness. We demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our proposed algorithms over widely used benchmark datasets using demographic parity and equalized odds notions of fairness

The management of alcoholic hepatitis: a prospective comparison of scoring systems

Background: The assessment of alcoholic hepatitis remains controversial. Several scores have been developed or used for this purpose. Aim: To study the use of the Glasgow Alcoholic Hepatitis Score (GAHS), the Discriminant Function (DF), Model for End‐Stage Liver Disease (MELD) and the ABIC (age, bilirubin, INR and creatinine) scores as well as scores to assess corticosteroid response in the management of alcoholic hepatitis. Methods: A total of 182 patients were studied prospectively. The GAHS, MELD, ABIC and DF scores were recorded on admission and serially over the first week of hospital management. Treatment with corticosteroids or pentoxifylline was considered if the GAHS was ≥9. Results: There were no differences in outcome between favourable scores as per recommended cut‐off points. Patients with a GAHS<9 had similar outcome whether their MELD, DF or ABIC scores were favourable or unfavourable. Treated patients with a GAHS≥9 had a significantly better 90‐day outcome than those who did not: 58% and 30% respectively, P = 0.01; HR 0.33 (0.14, 0.78). Patients treated with corticosteroids who had a fall in bilirubin of 25% after a week of treatment had an improved survival: 82% compared with 44% [P = 0.0005: HR 3.70 (1.77, 7.73)]. The Lille Score or a 25% fall in bilirubin had greater sensitivities than an early change in bilirubin level (95% and 90% compared with 58%) to assess treatment response. Conclusions: In this single‐centre study, a GAHS ≥9 identified patients who may benefit from treatment of alcoholic hepatitis. Intention‐to‐treat randomised‐controlled trials using a GAHS ≥9 as the threshold for treatment are needed to validate these findings. Response to corticosteroids can be assessed using the Lille Score or by a 25% fall in bilirubin

Phytochemicals in Australian papaya cultivars: the effect of maturity and cooking

To measure the effect of maturity and cooking on phytochemical composition and antioxidant capacity of fruit and leaves of four commercially available Australian papaya cultivars (RB1, RB2, RB4 and YB1)

Clinical response after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic stent shunt insertion for refractory ascites in cirrhosis

Background: Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic stent shunts (TIPSS) have been used successfully to reduce portal pressure in the context of variceal haemorrhage. Recent interest has focused on the possible use of TIPSS to manage refractory ascites. Aim: To study the effect of TIPSS insertion in 18 patients with refractory ascites. Results: Response rates were 33.3%, 50%, 33.3% and 26.7% at 1 week, 4 weeks, 3 months and 6 months, respectively. Overall mortality was 50% with a new or worsening encephalopathy rate also of 50%. Patients with lower serum bilirubin and serum creatinine prior to TIPSS insertion had greater response at 1 and 4 weeks, respectively. There was no improvement in either liver or renal function after TIPSS insertion by standard laboratory tests, although serum sodium increased in the responders after 1 month. Conclusion: TIPSS improves refractory ascites in only a minority of patients, and is associated with high encephalopathy and mortality rates

PLOS_for_upload_TRES_cavboxNorrisetal

Data includes tree cavity and nest box information for 2001-200