Understanding species distribution in dynamic populations : a new approach using spatio‐temporal point process models

Funding: EU consolidator’s grant STATEMIG 310820 (SB).Understanding and predicting a species’ distribution across a landscape is of central importance in ecology, biogeography and conservation biology. However, it presents daunting challenges when populations are highly dynamic (i.e. increasing or decreasing their ranges), particularly for small populations where information about ecology and life history traits is lacking. Currently, many modelling approaches fail to distinguish whether a site is unoccupied because the available habitat is unsuitable or because a species expanding its range has not arrived at the site yet. As a result, habitat that is indeed suitable may appear unsuitable. To overcome some of these limitations, we use a statistical modelling approach based on spatio‐temporal log‐Gaussian Cox processes. These model the spatial distribution of the species across available habitat and how this distribution changes over time, relative to covariates. In addition, the model explicitly accounts for spatio‐temporal dynamics that are unaccounted for by covariates through a spatio‐temporal stochastic process. We illustrate the approach by predicting the distribution of a recently established population of Eurasian cranes Grus grus in England, UK, and estimate the effect of a reintroduction in the range expansion of the population. Our models show that wetland extent and perimeter‐to‐area ratio have a positive and negative effect, respectively, in crane colonisation probability. Moreover, we find that cranes are more likely to colonise areas near already occupied wetlands and that the colonisation process is progressing at a low rate. Finally, the reintroduction of cranes in SW England can be considered a human‐assisted long‐distance dispersal event that has increased the dispersal potential of the species along a longitudinal axis in S England. Spatio‐temporal log‐Gaussian Cox process models offer an excellent opportunity for the study of species where information on life history traits is lacking, since these are represented through the spatio‐temporal dynamics reflected in the model.PostprintPeer reviewe

Development of a Health-Protective Drinking Water Level for Perchlorate

We evaluated animal and human toxicity data for perchlorate and identified reduction of thyroidal iodide uptake as the critical end point in the development of a health-protective drinking water level [also known as the public health goal (PHG)] for the chemical. This work was performed under the drinking water program of the Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment of the California Environmental Protection Agency. For dose–response characterization, we applied benchmark-dose modeling to human data and determined a point of departure (the 95% lower confidence limit for 5% inhibition of iodide uptake) of 0.0037 mg/kg/day. A PHG of 6 ppb was calculated by using an uncertainty factor of 10, a relative source contribution of 60%, and exposure assumptions specific to pregnant women. The California Department of Health Services will use the PHG, together with other considerations such as economic impact and engineering feasibility, to develop a California maximum contaminant level for perchlorate. We consider the PHG to be adequately protective of sensitive subpopulations, including pregnant women, their fetuses, infants, and people with hypothyroidism

Importance and Assessment of Quality of Life in Symptomatic Permanent Atrial Fibrillation: Patient Focus Groups from the RATE-AF Trial.

AIMS: To establish the extent and impact of symptoms in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), the importance of different aspects of quality of life (QoL), and how we should assess wellbeing. METHODS: Focus groups of patients with symptomatic permanent AF in a trial of heart rate control; the RATE-AF trial randomised 160 patients aged ≥60 years with permanent AF and at least NYHA class II dyspnoea to either digoxin or beta-blockers. Patient and public representatives led the focus groups and performed all data acquisition and analysis, using thematic approaches to interpret patient views about QoL and its measurement. RESULTS: Substantial impairment of health-related QoL was noted in 160 trial patients, with impact on all domains apart from mental health. Eight women and 11 men aged 61-87 years participated in the focus groups. Common themes were a lack of information from healthcare professionals about AF, a lack of focus on QoL in consultations, and a sense of frustration, isolation, and reduced confidence. There was marked variability in symptoms in individual patients, with some describing severe impact on activities of daily living, and profound interaction with comorbidities such as arthritis. Day-to-day variation in QoL and difficulty in attributing symptom burden to AF or other comorbidities led to challenges in questionnaire completion. Consensus was reached that collecting both general and AF-specific QoL would be useful in routine practice, along with participation in peer support, which was empowering for the patients. CONCLUSIONS: The impact of comorbidities is poorly appreciated in the context of AF, with considerable variability in QoL that requires both generic and AF-specific assessment. Improvement in QoL should direct the appraisal, and reappraisal, of treatment decisions for patients with permanent AF

The development and acceptability of an educational and training intervention for recruiters to neonatal trials : the TRAIN project

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Aboriginal young people’s perspectives and experiences of accessing sexual health services and sex education in Australia: A qualitative study

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander (Aboriginal) young people seek information and access health services for their sexual health needs. This study examined Aboriginal young people’s perspectives on sexual health services and sex education in Australia. Overall, 51 Aboriginal people aged 16–26 years were interviewed by peer researchers in Sydney, Australia in 2019–2020. The findings suggest that the internet was used to assess information quickly and confidentially, but Aboriginal young people questioned its reliability and accuracy. Family, Elders and peers were seen as sources of advice because they had real-life experience and highlighted intergenerational learning that occurs in Aboriginal communities. School-based sex education programmes had mixed reviews, with a preference for programmes delivered by external specialists providing anonymity, clear and accurate information about sex and relationships and positive approaches to sex education, including how to gain consent before sex. There was a need identified for school-based programmes to better consider the needs of Aboriginal young people, including those who identified as LGBTQI +. Aboriginal Medical Services were highly valued for providing culturally safe access to services, while sexual health clinics were valued for providing specialised confidential clinical services with low levels of judgement