Constellation Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA): Design Consideration for the Crew Exploration Vehicle

Managed by NASA's Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, a pilot probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) of the NASA Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) was performed in early 2006. The PRA methods used follow the general guidance provided in the NASA PRA Procedures Guide for NASA Managers and Practitioners'. Phased-mission based event trees and fault trees are used to model a lunar sortie mission of the CEV - involving the following phases: launch of a cargo vessel and a crew vessel; rendezvous of these two vessels in low Earth orbit; transit to th$: moon; lunar surface activities; ascension &om the lunar surface; and return to Earth. The analysis is based upon assumptions, preliminary system diagrams, and failure data that may involve large uncertainties or may lack formal validation. Furthermore, some of the data used were based upon expert judgment or extrapolated from similar components~systemsT. his paper includes a discussion of the system-level models and provides an overview of the analysis results used to identify insights into CEV risk drivers, and trade and sensitivity studies. Lastly, the PRA model was used to determine changes in risk as the system configurations or key parameters are modified

Test of electical resistivity and current diffusion modelling on MAST and JET

Experiments have been carried out on the MAST and JET tokamaks intended to compare the electrical resistivity of the plasma with theoretical formulations. The tests consist of obtaining motional stark effect (MSE) measurements in MHD-free plasmas during plasma current ramp-up (JET and MAST), ramp-down (MAST) and in stationary state (JET and MAST). Simulations of these plasmas are then performed in which the current profile evolution is calculated according to the poloidal field diffusion equation (PFDE) with classical or neoclassical resistivity. Synthetic MSE data are produced in the simulations for direct comparison with the experimental data. It is found that the toroidal current profile evolution modelled using neoclassical resistivity did not match the experimental observations on either device during current ramp-up or ramp-down as concluded from comparison of experimental and synthetic MSE profiles. In these phases, use of neoclassical resistivity in the modelling systematically overestimates the rate of current profile evolution. During the stationary state however, the modelled toroidal current profile matched experimental observations to a high degree of accuracy on both devices using neoclassical resistivity. Whilst no solution to the mismatch in the dynamic phases of the plasma is proposed, it is suggested that some physical process other than MHD which is not captured by the simple diffusive model of current profile evolution is responsible

Disruption prediction with artificial intelligence techniques in tokamak plasmas

In nuclear fusion reactors, plasmas are heated to very high temperatures of more than 100 million kelvin and, in so-called tokamaks, they are confined by magnetic fields in the shape of a torus. Light nuclei, such as deuterium and tritium, undergo a fusion reaction that releases energy, making fusion a promising option for a sustainable and clean energy source. Tokamak plasmas, however, are prone to disruptions as a result of a sudden collapse of the system terminating the fusion reactions. As disruptions lead to an abrupt loss of confinement, they can cause irreversible damage to present-day fusion devices and are expected to have a more devastating effect in future devices. Disruptions expected in the next-generation tokamak, ITER, for example, could cause electromagnetic forces larger than the weight of an Airbus A380. Furthermore, the thermal loads in such an event could exceed the melting threshold of the most resistant state-of-the-art materials by more than an order of magnitude. To prevent disruptions or at least mitigate their detrimental effects, empirical models obtained with artificial intelligence methods, of which an overview is given here, are commonly employed to predict their occurrence—and ideally give enough time to introduce counteracting measures

Runaway electron beam control

Post-disruption runaway electron (RE) beams in tokamaks with large current can cause deep melting of the vessel and are one of the major concerns for ITER operations. Consequently, a considerable effort is provided by the scientific community in order to test RE mitigation strategies. We present an overview of the results obtained at FTU and TCV controlling the current and position of RE beams to improve safety and repeatability of mitigation studies such as massive gas (MGI) and shattered pellet injections (SPI). We show that the proposed RE beam controller (REB-C) implemented at FTU and TCV is effective and that current reduction of the beam can be performed via the central solenoid reducing the energy of REs, providing an alternative/parallel mitigation strategy to MGI/SPI. Experimental results show that, meanwhile deuterium pellets injected on a fully formed RE beam are ablated but do not improve RE energy dissipation rate, heavy metals injected by a laser blow off system on low-density flat-top discharges with a high level of RE seeding seem to induce disruptions expelling REs. Instabilities during the RE beam plateau phase have shown to enhance losses of REs, expelled from the beam core. Then, with the aim of triggering instabilities to increase RE losses, an oscillating loop voltage has been tested on RE beam plateau phase at TCV revealing, for the first time, what seems to be a full conversion from runaway to ohmic current. We finally report progresses in the design of control strategies at JET in view of the incoming SPI mitigation experiments

Real-time-capable prediction of temperature and density profiles in a tokamak using RAPTOR and a first-principle-based transport model

The RAPTOR code is a control-oriented core plasma profile simulator with various applications in control design and verification, discharge optimization and real-time plasma simulation. To date, RAPTOR was capable of simulating the evolution of poloidal flux and electron temperature using empirical transport models, and required the user to input assumptions on the other profiles and plasma parameters. We present an extension of the code to simulate the temperature evolution of both ions and electrons, as well as the particle density transport. A proof-of-principle neural-network emulation of the quasilinear gyrokinetic QuaLiKiz transport model is coupled to RAPTOR for the calculation of first-principle-based heat and particle turbulent transport. These extended capabilities are demonstrated in a simulation of a JET discharge. The multi-channel simulation requires ∼0.2 s to simulate 1 second of a JET plasma, corresponding to ∼20 energy confinement times, while predicting experimental profiles within the limits of the transport model. The transport model requires no external inputs except for the boundary condition at the top of the H-mode pedestal. This marks the first time that simultaneous, accurate predictions of Te, Tiand nehave been obtained using a first-principle-based transport code that can run in faster-than-real-time for present-day tokamaks

Comparison of runaway electron generation parameters in small, medium-sized and large tokamaks - A survey of experiments in COMPASS, TCV, ASDEX-Upgrade and JET

This paper presents a survey of the experiments on runaway electrons (RE) carried out recently in frames of EUROFusion Consortium in different tokamaks: COMPASS, ASDEX-Upgrade, TCV and JET. Massive gas injection (MGI) has been used in different scenarios for RE generation in small and medium-sized tokamaks to elaborate the most efficient and reliable ones for future RE experiments. New data on RE generated at disruptions in COMPASS and ASDEX-Upgrade was collected and added to the JET database. Different accessible parameters of disruptions, such as current quench rate, conversion rate of plasma current into runaways, etc have been analysed for each tokamak and compared to JET data. It was shown, that tokamaks with larger geometrical sizes provide the wider limits for spatial and temporal variation of plasma parameters during disruptions, thus extending the parameter space for RE generation. The second part of experiments was dedicated to study of RE generation in stationary discharges in COMPASS, TCV and JET. Injection of Ne/Ar have been used to mock-up the JET MGI runaway suppression experiments. Secondary RE avalanching was identified and quantified for the first time in the TCV tokamak in RE generating discharges after massive Ne injection. Simulations of the primary RE generation and secondary avalanching dynamics in stationary discharges has demonstrated that RE current fraction created via avalanching could achieve up to 70-75% of the total plasma current in TCV. Relaxations which are reminiscent the phenomena associated to the kinetic instability driven by RE have been detected in RE discharges in TCV. Macroscopic parameters of RE dominating discharges in TCV before and after onset of the instability fit well to the empirical instability criterion, which was established in the early tokamaks and examined by results of recent numerical simulations