A parameter sensitivity methodology in the context of HIV delay equation models

A sensitivity methodology for nonlinear delay systems arising in one class of cellular HIV infection models is presented. Theoretical foundations for a typical sensitivity investigation and illustrative computations are given.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/46951/1/285_2004_Article_299.pd

Impact of global warming on beef cattle production cost in Brazil

Global warming is affecting agribusiness in its economic aspects. Therefore, the prediction of the evolution of Brazilian beef cattle production cost was made using the IPCC forecast scenario for global warming. The methodology consisted of two steps: (i) the development of a fuzzy model that estimated the grazing land capacity (RP) decrease risk as a function of the changes in the average total rain index, air temperature and increase in extension of the dry season; and (ii) the design of an algorithm for predicting the decrease in production as function of the RPfuzzy model, that results in the impact in beef cattle productivity, and consequent increase in production costs. Historical environmental data from important producing counties in the Cerrado were organized and a set of fuzzy Gaussian functions were developed, and three possible settings (optimistic, medium and pessimistic) were considered. The decrease in beef cattle productivity was estimated using the losses in production due to the increase in air temperature and vulnerability of pasture capacity. The boundary settings for the total increase of production cost scenario used the number of animals per area of grazing land, the adoption of grain supplement and its future scenario; and the result output function pointed to a threshold within a variation from an increase in production cost of 80% (optimistic) to 160% (pessimistic). Under the optimistic scenario the total cost of Brazilian beef cattle production in the Cerrado became near to US$2.88 kg-1, while in the pessimistic scenario this cost reached US$ 4.16 kg-1, challenging the international competitiveness of this economic segment.O aquecimento global afeta o agronegócio em seus aspectos econômicos. Foi feita previsão daevolução do custo de produção de carne bovina brasileira usando a predição de aquecimento global do IPCC. A metodologia consistiu de duas etapas: (i) o desenvolvimento de modelo fuzzy que estimou o risco de decréscimo da capacidade de pastagens (RP) em função das mudanças no índice pluviométrico total, na temperatura do ar e na extensão da estação de seca; e (ii) o desenvolvimento de um algoritmo para predição do decréscimo da produção em função de um modelo fuzzy de RP que resulte no impacto na produtividade bovina de corte e conseqüente aumento no custo de produção. Foram organizados os dados históricos de fatores ambientais dos municípios importante produção no Cerrado e um conjunto de funções Gaussianas fuzzy foi desenvolvido e três estimativas possíveis (otimista, média e negativa) foram consideradas. O decréscimo na produtividade do gado foi estimado usando as perdas de produção devido ao acréscimo da temperatura bem como da vulnerabilidade da capacidade de pastagem. O estabelecimento dos limites para o cenário do acréscimo do custo de produção usou o número de unidade animal por área de pastagem, a adoção de suplemento de grãos e o cenário de produção futura; e o resultado da função de saída apontou para uma variação do acréscimo do custo de produção de 80% (otimista) até 160% (pessimista). Sob o cenário otimista, o custo total da produção brasileira de carne bovina no Cerrado chega a US$2,88 kg-1, enquanto no cenário pessimista este custo pode atingir US$ 4,16 kg-1, o que pode comprometer a competitividade internacional do setor

Elevated CO2 and water supply interactions in grasslands: A pastures and rangelands management perspective

Water is a key variable driving the composition and productivity of pastures and rangelands, and many of the ecosystems in these grasslands are highly sensitive to changes in water supply. The possibility that elevated CO2 concentrations may alter plant water relations is therefore particularly relevant to pastures and rangelands, and may have important consequences for grassland ecosystem function, water use, carbon storage and nutrient cycling. The planning of effective research to better understand these changes requires attention to both: (i) gaps in knowledge about CO2 and water interactions, and (ii) knowledge of how precisely the effects of CO2 must be understood in relation to other factors, in order to predict changes in grassland structure and production. A recent microcosm experiment illustrates that non-linear effects of CO2 and water stress could perturb primary production by triggering changes in grassland community composition. The magnitudes of the effects of CO2 on key grassland ecosystems remain to be precisely determined through ecosystem-level experiments. A simplified simulation of the impact of different levels of productivity change in a water-limited Australian rangeland system was conducted by varying effects of CO2 on radiation and water use efficiency. The results indicate that direct effects of CO2 may be moderated at the enterprise scale by accompanying changes in adaptive management by farmers. We conclude that future research should aim to construct quantitative relationships and identify thresholds of response for different grassland systems. The sensitivity of these systems to management (such as grazing pressure) should also be considered when developing integrated predictions of future effects of CO2 on water supply to grassland ecosystems