Modelling the species jump: towards assessing the risk of human infection from novel avian influenzas

The scientific understanding of the driving factors behind zoonotic and pandemic influenzas is hampered by complex interactions between viruses, animal hosts and humans. This complexity makes identifying influenza viruses of high zoonotic or pandemic risk, before they emerge from animal populations, extremely difficult and uncertain. As a first step towards assessing zoonotic risk of Influenza, we demonstrate a risk assessment framework to assess the relative likelihood of influenza A viruses, circulating in animal populations, making the species jump into humans. The intention is that such a risk assessment framework could assist decisionmakers to compare multiple influenza viruses for zoonotic potential and hence to develop appropriate strain-specific control measures. It also provides a first step towards showing proof of principle for an eventual pandemic risk model. We show that the spatial and temporal epidemiology is as important in assessing the risk of an influenza A species jump as understanding the innate molecular capability of the virus.We also demonstrate data deficiencies that need to be addressed in order to consistently combine both epidemiological and molecular virology data into a risk assessment framework

Overview of Evidence of Antimicrobial Use and Antimicrobial Resistance in the Food Chain

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a global health problem. Bacteria carrying resistance genes can be transmitted between humans, animals and the environment. There are concerns that the widespread use of antimicrobials in the food chain constitutes an important source of AMR in humans, but the extent of this transmission is not well understood. The aim of this review is to examine published evidence on the links between antimicrobial use (AMU) in the food chain and AMR in people and animals. The evidence showed a link between AMU in animals and the occurrence of resistance in these animals. However, evidence of the benefits of a reduction in AMU in animals on the prevalence of resistant bacteria in humans is scarce. The presence of resistant bacteria is documented in the human food supply chain, which presents a potential exposure route and risk to public health. Microbial genome sequencing has enabled the establishment of some links between the presence of resistant bacteria in humans and animals but, for some antimicrobials, no link could be established. Research and monitoring of AMU and AMR in an integrated manner is essential for a better understanding of the biology and the dynamics of antimicrobial resistance

Status Report on Education in the Economics of Animal Health: Results from a European Survey

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Coevolution of relative brain size and life expectancy in parrots

Previous studies have demonstrated a correlation between longevity and brain size in a variety of taxa. Little research has been devoted to understanding this link in parrots; yet parrots are well-known for both their exceptionally long lives and cognitive complexity. We employed a large-scale comparative analysis that investigated the influence of brain size and life-history variables on longevity in parrots. Specifically, we addressed two hypotheses for evolutionary drivers of longevity: the cognitive buffer hypothesis, which proposes that increased cognitive abilities enable longer lifespans, and the expensive brain hypothesis, which holds that increases in lifespan are caused by prolonged developmental time of, and increased parental investment in, large-brained offspring. We estimated life expectancy from detailed zoo records for 133 818 individuals across 244 parrot species. Using a principled Bayesian approach that addresses data uncertainty and imputation of missing values, we found a consistent correlation between relative brain size and life expectancy in parrots. This correlation was best explained by a direct effect of relative brain size. Notably, we found no effects of developmental time, clutch size or age at first reproduction. Our results suggest that selection for enhanced cognitive abilities in parrots has in turn promoted longer lifespans

Stroke and recurrent haemorrhage associated with antithrombotic treatment after gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation:nationwide cohort study

Study question What are the risks of all cause mortality, thromboembolism, major bleeding, and recurrent gastrointestinal bleeding associated with restarting antithrombotic treatment after gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation? Methods This Danish cohort study (1996-2012) included all patients with atrial fibrillation discharged from hospital after gastrointestinal bleeding while receiving antithrombotic treatment. Restarted treatment regimens were single or combined antithrombotic drugs with oral anticoagulation and antiplatelets. Follow-up started 90 days after discharge to avoid confounding from use of previously prescribed drugs on discharge. Risks of all cause mortality, thromboembolism, major bleeding, and recurrent gastrointestinal bleeding were estimated with competing risks models and time dependent multiple Cox regression models. Study answer and limitations 4602 patients (mean age 78 years) were included. Within two years, 39.9% (95% confidence interval 38.4% to 41.3%, n=1745) of the patients had died, 12.0% (11.0% to 13.0%, n=526) had experienced thromboembolism, 17.7% (16.5% to 18.8%, n=788) major bleeding, and 12.1% (11.1% to 13.1%, n=546) recurrent gastrointestinal bleeding. 27.1% (n=924) of patients did not resume antithrombotic treatment. Compared with non-resumption of treatment, a reduced risk of all cause mortality was found in association with restart of oral anticoagulation (hazard ratio 0.39, 95% confidence interval 0.34 to 0.46), an antiplatelet agent (0.76, 0.68 to 0.86), and oral anticoagulation plus an antiplatelet agent (0.41, 0.32 to 0.52), and a reduced risk of thromboembolism was found in association with restart of oral anticoagulation (0.41, 0.31 to 0.54), an antiplatelet agent (0.76, 0.61 to 0.95), and oral anticoagulation plus an antiplatelet agent (0.54, 0.36 to 0.82). Restarting oral anticoagulation alone was the only regimen with an increased risk of major bleeding (1.37, 1.06 to 1.77) compared with non-resumption of treatment; however, the difference in risk of recurrent gastrointestinal bleeding was not significant between patients who restarted an antithrombotic treatment regimen and those who did not resume treatment. What this study adds Among patients with atrial fibrillation who experience gastrointestinal bleeding while receiving antithrombotic treatment; subsequent restart of oral anticoagulation alone was associated with better outcomes for all cause mortality and thromboembolism compared with patients who did not resume treatment. This was despite an increased longitudinal associated risk of bleeding. Funding, competing interests, data sharing This study was supported by a grant from Boehringer-Ingelheim. Competing interests are available in the full paper on bmj.com. The authors have no additional data to share

New directions in cellular therapy of cancer: a summary of the summit on cellular therapy for cancer

A summit on cellular therapy for cancer discussed and presented advances related to the use of adoptive cellular therapy for melanoma and other cancers. The summit revealed that this field is advancing rapidly. Conventional cellular therapies, such as tumor infiltrating lymphocytes (TIL), are becoming more effective and more available. Gene therapy is becoming an important tool in adoptive cell therapy. Lymphocytes are being engineered to express high affinity T cell receptors (TCRs), chimeric antibody-T cell receptors (CARs) and cytokines. T cell subsets with more naïve and stem cell-like characteristics have been shown in pre-clinical models to be more effective than unselected populations and it is now possible to reprogram T cells and to produce T cells with stem cell characteristics. In the future, combinations of adoptive transfer of T cells and specific vaccination against the cognate antigen can be envisaged to further enhance the effectiveness of these therapies

Europe Needs Consistent Teaching of the Economics of Animal Health

The prevalence of meat consumption dictates that there is a global need for people educated in animal health economics. Since there are limited resources available for animal health surveillance, as well as the control and prevention of diseases, people skilled in animal health science with a deep understanding of economics and the allocation of scarce resources are required to enable consumer to access safe, value-added meat product

Lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation according to optimal, borderline, or elevated levels of risk factors: cohort study based on longitudinal data from the Framingham Heart Study

OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between risk factor burdens-categorized as optimal, borderline, or elevated-and the lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation. DESIGN: Community based cohort study. SETTING: Longitudinal data from the Framingham Heart Study. PARTICIPANTS: Individuals free of atrial fibrillation at index ages 55, 65, and 75 years were assessed. Smoking, alcohol consumption, body mass index, blood pressure, diabetes, and history of heart failure or myocardial infarction were assessed as being optimal (that is, all risk factors were optimal), borderline (presence of borderline risk factors and absence of any elevated risk factor), or elevated (presence of at least one elevated risk factor) at index age. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation at index age up to 95 years, accounting for the competing risk of death. RESULTS: At index age 55 years, the study sample comprised 5338 participants (2531 (47.4%) men). In this group, 247 (4.6%) had an optimal risk profile, 1415 (26.5%) had a borderline risk profile, and 3676 (68.9%) an elevated risk profile. The prevalence of elevated risk factors increased gradually when the index ages rose. For index age of 55 years, the lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation was 37.0% (95% confidence interval 34.3% to 39.6%). The lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation was 23.4% (12.8% to 34.5%) with an optimal risk profile, 33.4% (27.9% to 38.9%) with a borderline risk profile, and 38.4% (35.5% to 41.4%) with an elevated risk profile. Overall, participants with at least one elevated risk factor were associated with at least 37.8% lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation. The gradient in lifetime risk across risk factor burden was similar at index ages 65 and 75 years. CONCLUSIONS: Regardless of index ages at 55, 65, or 75 years, an optimal risk factor profile was associated with a lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation of about one in five; this risk rose to more than one in three a third in individuals with at least one elevated risk factor