Trajectory matching of ozonesondes and MOZAIC measurements in the UTLS – Part 2: Application to the global ozonesonde network

Both balloon-borne electrochemical ozonesondes and MOZAIC (measurements of ozone, water vapour, carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides by in-service Airbus aircraft) provide very valuable data sets for ozone studies in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS). Although MOZAIC's highly accurate UV-photometers are regularly inspected and recalibrated annually, recent analyses cast some doubt on the long-term stability of their ozone analysers. To investigate this further, we perform a 16 yr comparison (1994–2009) of UTLS ozone measurements from balloon-borne ozonesondes and MOZAIC. The analysis uses fully three-dimensional trajectories computed from ERA-Interim (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-analysis) wind fields to find matches between the two measurement platforms. Although different sensor types (Brewer-Mast and Electrochemical Concentration Cell ozonesondes) were used, most of the 28 launch sites considered show considerable differences of up to 25% compared to MOZAIC in the mid-1990s, followed by a systematic tendency to smaller differences of around 5–10% in subsequent years. The reason for the difference before 1998 remains unclear, but observations from both sondes and MOZAIC require further examination to be reliable enough for use in robust long-term trend analyses starting before 1998. According to our analysis, ozonesonde measurements at tropopause altitudes appear to be rather insensitive to changing the type of the Electrochemical Concentration Cell ozonesonde, provided the cathode sensing solution strength remains unchanged. Scoresbysund (Greenland) showed systematically 5% higher readings after changing from Science Pump Corporation sondes to ENSCI Corporation sondes, while a 1.0% KI cathode electrolyte was retained

Volatile Organic Compounds in the Po Basin. Part A: Anthropogenic VOCs

Measurements of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) were performed in the Po Basin, northern Italy in early summer 1998 within the PIPAPO project as well as in summer 2002 and autumn 2003 within the FORMAT project. During the three campaigns, trace gases and meteorological parameters were measured at a semi-rural station, around 35 km north of the city center of Milan. Low toluene and benzene concentrations and lower toluene to benzene ratios on weekends, on Sundays, and in August enabled the identification of a ‘weekend' and a ‘vacation' effect when anthropogenic emissions were lower due to less traffic and reduced industrial activities, respectively. Recurrent nighttime cyclohexane peaks suggested a periodical short-term release of cyclohexane close to the semi-rural sampling site. A multivariate receptor model analysis resulted in the distinction of different characteristic concentration profiles attributed to natural gas, biogenic impact, vehicle exhaust, industrial activities, and a single cyclohexane sourc

Volatile Organic Compounds in the Po Basin. Part B: Biogenic VOCs

Measurements of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) were performed in the Po Basin, northern Italy in early summer 1998, summer 2002, and autumn 2003. During the three campaigns, trace gases and meteorological parameters were measured at a semi-rural station, around 35 km north of the city center of Milan. Bimodal diurnal cycles of isoprene with highest concentrations in the morning and evening were found and could be explained by the interaction of emissions, chemical reactions, and vertical mixing. The diurnal cycle could be qualitatively reproduced by a three-dimensional Eulerian model. The nighttime decay of isoprene could be attributed mostly to reactions with NO3, while the decay of the isoprene oxidation products could not be explained with the considered chemical reactions. Methanol reached very high mixing ratios, up to 150 ppb. High concentrations with considerable variability occurred during nights with high relative humidities and low wind speeds. The origin of these nighttime methanol concentrations is most likely local and biogenic but the specific source could not be identifie

Extreme events in total ozone over Arosa – Part 2: Fingerprints of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry and effects on mean values and long-term changes

In this study the frequency of days with extreme low (termed ELOs) and extreme high (termed EHOs) total ozone values and their influence on mean values and trends are analyzed for the world's longest total ozone record (Arosa, Switzerland). The results show (a) an increase in ELOs and (b) a decrease in EHOs during the last decades and (c) that the overall trend during the 1970s and 1980s in total ozone is strongly dominated by changes in these extreme events. After removing the extremes, the time series shows a strongly reduced trend (reduction by a factor of 2.5 for trend in annual mean). Excursions in the frequency of extreme events reveal "fingerprints" of dynamical factors such as ENSO or NAO, and chemical factors, such as cold Arctic vortex ozone losses, as well as major volcanic eruptions of the 20th century (Gunung Agung, El Chichón, Mt. Pinatubo). Furthermore, atmospheric loading of ozone depleting substances leads to a continuous modification of column ozone in the Northern Hemisphere also with respect to extreme values (partly again in connection with polar vortex contributions). Application of extreme value theory allows the identification of many more such "fingerprints" than conventional time series analysis of annual and seasonal mean values. The analysis shows in particular the strong influence of dynamics, revealing that even moderate ENSO and NAO events have a discernible effect on total ozone. Overall the approach to extremal modelling provides new information on time series properties, variability, trends and the influence of dynamics and chemistry, complementing earlier analyses focusing only on monthly (or annual) mean values

Extreme events in total ozone over Arosa – Part 1: Application of extreme value theory

In this study ideas from extreme value theory are for the first time applied in the field of stratospheric ozone research, because statistical analysis showed that previously used concepts assuming a Gaussian distribution (e.g. fixed deviations from mean values) of total ozone data do not adequately address the structure of the extremes. We show that statistical extreme value methods are appropriate to identify ozone extremes and to describe the tails of the Arosa (Switzerland) total ozone time series. In order to accommodate the seasonal cycle in total ozone, a daily moving threshold was determined and used, with tools from extreme value theory, to analyse the frequency of days with extreme low (termed ELOs) and high (termed EHOs) total ozone at Arosa. The analysis shows that the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) provides an appropriate model for the frequency distribution of total ozone above or below a mathematically well-defined threshold, thus providing a statistical description of ELOs and EHOs. The results show an increase in ELOs and a decrease in EHOs during the last decades. The fitted model represents the tails of the total ozone data set with high accuracy over the entire range (including absolute monthly minima and maxima), and enables a precise computation of the frequency distribution of ozone mini-holes (using constant thresholds). Analyzing the tails instead of a small fraction of days below constant thresholds provides deeper insight into the time series properties. Fingerprints of dynamical (e.g. ENSO, NAO) and chemical features (e.g. strong polar vortex ozone loss), and major volcanic eruptions, can be identified in the observed frequency of extreme events throughout the time series. Overall the new approach to analysis of extremes provides more information on time series properties and variability than previous approaches that use only monthly averages and/or mini-holes and mini-highs

On the relationship between total ozone and atmospheric dynamics and chemistry at mid-latitudes Part 2

We present the first spatial analysis of "fingerprints" of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and atmospheric aerosol load after major volcanic eruptions (El Chichon and Mt. Pinatubo) in extreme low and high (termed ELOs and EHOs, respectively) and mean values of total ozone for the northern and southern mid-latitudes (defined as the region between 30 degrees and 60 degrees north and south, respectively). Significant influence on ozone extremes was found for the warm ENSO phase in both hemispheres during spring, especially towards low latitudes, indicating the enhanced ozone transport from the tropics to the extra-tropics. Further, the results confirm findings of recent work on the connection between the ENSO phase and the strength and extent of the southern ozone "collar". For the volcanic eruptions the analysis confirms findings of earlier studies for the northern mid-latitudes and gives new insights for the Southern Hemisphere. The results provide evidence that the negative effect of the eruption of El Chichon might be partly compensated by a strong warm ENSO phase in 1982–1983 at southern mid-latitudes. The strong west-east gradient in the coefficient estimates for the Mt. Pinatubo eruption and the analysis of the relationship between the AAO and ENSO phase, the extent and the position of the southern ozone "collar" and the polar vortex structure provide clear evidence for a dynamical "masking" of the volcanic signal at southern mid-latitudes. The paper also analyses the contribution of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry to long-term total ozone changes. Here, quite heterogeneous results have been found on spatial scales. In general the results show that EESC and the 11-yr solar cycle can be identified as major contributors to long-term ozone changes. However, a strong contribution of dynamical features (El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO)) to ozone variability and trends is found at a regional level. For the QBO (at 30 and 50 hPa), strong influence on total ozone variability and trends is found over large parts of the northern and southern mid-latitudes, especially towards equatorial latitudes. Strong influence of ENSO is found over the Northern and Southern Pacific, Central Europe and central southern mid-latitudes. For the NAO, strong influence on column ozone is found over Labrador/Greenland, the Eastern United States, the Euro-Atlantic Sector, and Central Europe. For the NAO's southern counterpart, the AAO, strong influence on ozone variability and long-term changes is found at lower southern mid-latitudes, including the southern parts of South America and the Antarctic Peninsula, and central southern mid-latitudes

The Role of Migration and Domestic Transmission in the Spread of HIV-1 Non-B Subtypes in Switzerland

Background. By analyzing human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) pol sequences from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS), we explored whether the prevalence of non-B subtypes reflects domestic transmission or migration patterns. Methods. Swiss non-B sequences and sequences collected abroad were pooled to construct maximum likelihood trees, which were analyzed for Swiss-specific subepidemics, (subtrees including ≥80% Swiss sequences, bootstrap >70%; macroscale analysis) or evidence for domestic transmission (sequence pairs with genetic distance <1.5%, bootstrap ≥98%; microscale analysis). Results. Of 8287 SHCS participants, 1732 (21%) were infected with non-B subtypes, of which A (n = 328), C (n = 272), CRF01_AE (n = 258), and CRF02_AG (n = 285) were studied further. The macroscale analysis revealed that 21% (A), 16% (C), 24% (CRF01_AE), and 28% (CRF02_AG) belonged to Swiss-specific subepidemics. The microscale analysis identified 26 possible transmission pairs: 3 (12%) including only homosexual Swiss men of white ethnicity; 3 (12%) including homosexual white men from Switzerland and partners from foreign countries; and 10 (38%) involving heterosexual white Swiss men and females of different nationality and predominantly nonwhite ethnicity. Conclusions. Of all non-B infections diagnosed in Switzerland, <25% could be prevented by domestic interventions. Awareness should be raised among immigrants and Swiss individuals with partners from high prevalence countries to contain the spread of non-B subtype