Health and budget impact of combined HIV prevention : first results of the BELHIVPREV model

Objectives: We developed a pragmatic modelling approach to estimate the impact of treatment as prevention (TasP); outreach testing strategies; and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) on the epidemiology of HIV and its associated pharmaceutical expenses. Methods: Our model estimates the incremental health (in terms of new HIV diagnoses) and budget impact of two prevention scenarios (outreach+TasP and outreach+TasP+PrEP) against a 'no additional prevention' scenario. Model parameters were estimated from reported Belgian epidemiology and literature data. The analysis was performed from a healthcare payer perspective with a 15-year-time horizon. It considers subpopulation differences, HIV infections diagnosed in Belgium having occurred prior to migration, and the effects of an ageing HIV population. Results: Without additional prevention measures, the annual number of new HIV diagnoses rises to over 1350 new diagnoses in 2030 as compared to baseline, resulting in a budget expenditure of (sic)260.5 million. Implementation of outreach+TasP and outreach+TasP+PrEP results in a decrease in the number of new HIV diagnoses to 865 and 663 per year, respectively. Respective budget impacts decrease by (sic)20.6 million and (sic)33.7 million. Conclusion: Foregoing additional investments in prevention is not an option. An approach combining TasP, outreach and PrEP is most effective in reducing the number of new HIV diagnoses and the HIV treatment budget. Our model is the first pragmatic HIV model in Belgium estimating the consequences of a combined preventive approach on the HIV epidemiology and its economic burden assuming other prevention efforts such as condom use and harm reduction strategies remain the same

A step towards a multidirectional 2D model for large scale traffic networks

International audienceno abstrac

2D-LWR in large-scale network with space dependent fundamental diagram

International audienceTraffic modeling of large-scale urban networks is a challenging task. In the literature, the network is mainly assumed to be homogeneous. However, in a large-scale scenario, it is unlikely that the traffic network characteristics–such as speed limit, number of lanes, or the network geometry–remain constant throughout the network. Therefore, we introduce a two dimensional macroscopic model for large-scale traffic networks where the fundamental diagram is space-dependent and varies with respect to the area considered. We simulate our model and compare the results with those obtained by microsimulation

Sleeping

info:eu-repo/semantics/publishe

Limited HIV-1 Reactivation in Resting CD4+ T cells from Aviremic Patients under Protease Inhibitors.

peer reviewedA latent viral reservoir that resides in resting CD4+ T cells represents a major barrier for eradication of HIV infection. We test here the impact of HIV protease inhibitor (PI) based combination anti-retroviral therapy (cART) over nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-based cART on HIV-1 reactivation and integration in resting CD4+ T cells. This is a prospective cohort study of patients with chronic HIV-1 infection treated with conventional cART with an undetectable viremia. We performed a seven-year study of 47 patients with chronic HIV-infection treated with cART regimens and with undetectable plasma HIV-1 RNA levels for at least 1 year. Of these 47 patients treated with cART, 24 were treated with a PI-based regimen and 23 with a NNRTI-based regimen as their most recent treatment for more than one year. We evaluated the HIV-1 reservoir using reactivation assay and integrated HIV-1 DNA, respectively, in resting CD4+ T cells. Resting CD4+ T cells isolated from PI-treated patients compared to NNRTI-treated patients showed a limited HIV-1 reactivation upon T-cell stimulation (p = 0.024) and a lower level of HIV-1 integration (p = 0.024). Our study indicates that PI-based cART could be more efficient than NNRTI-based cART for limiting HIV-1 reactivation in aviremic chronically infected patients

Factors associated with the continuum of care of HIV infected patients in Belgium

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Rapid viral rebound after analytical treatment interruption in patients with very small HIV reservoir and minimal on-going viral transcription

Introduction: Viral remission after analytical treatment interruption (ATI), termed post-treatment control, has been described in a small proportion of HIV-positive patients. This phenomenon has been separately associated to both low levels of HIV-1 proviral DNA as well as cell-associated RNA. We investigated whether the combination of both parameters could help predict delayed viral rebound after treatment interruption (TI). Methods: We conducted an open single-arm ATI study in four Belgian HIV reference centres from January 2016 to July 2018. Eligible participants were adults who had fewer than 50 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL for more than two years, more than 500 CD4 cells/mu L for more than three months, and were in general good health. Consenting participants who had fewer than 66 copies total HIV-1 DNA (t-DNA) and fewer than 10 copies cell-associated HIV-1 unspliced RNA (US-RNA) per million peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs), interrupted therapy and were monitored closely. Antiretroviral therapy (ART) was resumed after two consecutive viral loads exceeding 1000 copies or one exceeding 10,000 copies/mL. The primary outcome was the proportion of participants with fewer than 50 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL 48 weeks after TI. Secondary outcomes were time to viral rebound, the frequency of serious adverse events (AEs) and evolution of t-DNA and US-RNA after TI. Results: All 16 consenting participants who interrupted therapy experienced rapid viral rebound two to eight weeks after TI. No serious AEs were observed. Levels of t-DNA and US-RNA increased after TI but returned to pre-ATI levels after treatment restart. None of the studied demographic, clinical and biological parameters were predictive of time of viral rebound. Conclusions: The combination of low levels of t-DNA and US-RNA in PBMCs, corresponding respectively to a small and transcriptionally silent viral reservoir, is not predictive of viral remission after TI in patients on ART

Antiretroviral Drug-Related Liver Mortality Among HIV-Positive Persons in the Absence of Hepatitis B or C Virus Coinfection: The Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs Study

In a large prospective multicohort study 22 910 human immunodeficiency virus-positive participants without hepatitis B or C virus coinfection were followed for 114 478 patient-years. The incidence of liver-related death was low at 0.10 per 1000 patient-years. Liverrelated mortality due to antiretroviral drug-related toxicity was rar

Measures of Longitudinal Immune Dysfunction and Risk of AIDS and Non-AIDS Defining Malignancies in Antiretroviral Treated People With Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)

Background: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection leads to chronic immune activation/inflammation that can persist in virally suppressed persons on fully active antiretroviral therapy (ART) and increase risk of malignancies. The prognostic role of low CD4:CD8 ratio and elevated CD8 cell counts on the risk of cancer remains unclear. Methods: We investigated the association of CD4:CD8 ratio on the hazard of non-AIDS defining malignancy (NADM), AIDS-defining malignancy (ADM) and most frequent group of cancers in ART-treated people with HIV (PWH) with a CD4 and CD8 cell counts and viral load measurements at baseline. We developed Cox proportional hazard models with adjustment for known confounders of cancer risk and time-dependent cumulative and lagged exposures of CD4:CD8 ratio to account for time-evolving risk factors and avoid reverse causality. Results: CD4:CD8 ratios below 0.5, compared to above 1.0, were independently associated with a 12-month time-lagged higher risk of ADM and infection-related malignancies (adjusted hazard ratio 2.61 [95% confidence interval {CI }1.10-6.19] and 2.03 [95% CI 1.24-3.33], respectively). CD4 cell counts below 350 cells/μL were associated with an increased risk of NADMs and ADMs, as did infection, smoking, and body mass index-related malignancies. Conclusions: In ART-treated PWH low CD4:CD8 ratios were associated with ADM and infection-related cancers independently from CD4 and CD8 cell counts and may alert clinicians for cancer screening and prevention of NADM