Intimate partner violence as a predictor of marital disruption in rural Rakai, Uganda: a longitudinal study.

ObjectivesWe assessed the association between intimate partner violence (IPV) and union disruption (divorce or separation) in the rural Ugandan setting of Rakai District.MethodsWe analyzed longitudinal data collected from April 1999 to June 2006, from 6834 women (15-49 years) living in 50 communities in Rakai. Participants were either officially married, traditionally married or in a consensual union during one or more surveys and completed at least one follow-up survey. The primary outcome was union disruption through divorce or separation from the primary sexual partner.ResultsPast year IPV ranged from 6.49 % (severe physical abuse) to 31.99 % (emotional abuse). Severe physical IPV was significantly associated with divorce/separation, after adjusting for other covariates (aOR = 1.80, 95 % CI 1.01-3.22). Another predictor of union disruption was a woman having two or more sexual partners in the past year (aOR = 8.42, 95 % CI 5.97-11.89). Factors protecting against divorce/separation included an increasing number of co-resident biological children and longer duration of union.ConclusionsIPV, particularly severe physical abuse, is an important risk factor for union disruption. Marital counseling, health education and interventions should address the role of IPV on the wellbeing of women and the stability of couples in Uganda

Migration, hotspots, and dispersal of HIV infection in Rakai, Uganda

HIV prevalence varies markedly throughout Africa, and it is often presumed areas of higher HIV prevalence (i.e., hotspots) serve as sources of infection to neighboring areas of lower prevalence. However, the small-scale geography of migration networks and movement of HIV-positive individuals between communities is poorly understood. Here, we use population-based data from ~22,000 persons of known HIV status to characterize migratory patterns and their relationship to HIV among 38 communities in Rakai, Uganda with HIV prevalence ranging from 9 to 43%. We find that migrants moving into hotspots had significantly higher HIV prevalence than migrants moving elsewhere, but out-migration from hotspots was geographically dispersed, contributing minimally to HIV burden in destination locations. Our results challenge the assumption that high prevalence hotspots are drivers of transmission in regional epidemics, instead suggesting that migrants with high HIV prevalence, particularly women, selectively migrate to these areas

HIV epidemiologic trends among occupational groups in Rakai, Uganda: A population-based longitudinal study, 1999–2016

Certain occupations have been associated with heightened risk of HIV acquisition and spread in sub-Saharan Africa, including female bar and restaurant work and male transportation work. However, data on changes in population prevalence of HIV infection and HIV incidence within occupations following mass scale-up of African HIV treatment and prevention programs is very limited. We evaluated prospective data collected between 1999 and 2016 from the Rakai Community Cohort Study, a longitudinal population-based study of 15- to 49-year-old persons in Uganda. Adjusted prevalence risk ratios for overall, treated, and untreated, prevalent HIV infection, and incidence rate ratios for HIV incidence with 95% confidence intervals were estimated using Poisson regression to assess changes in HIV outcomes by occupation. Analyses were stratified by gender. There were 33,866 participants, including 19,113 (56%) women. Overall, HIV seroprevalence declined in most occupational subgroups among men, but increased or remained mostly stable among women. In contrast, prevalence of untreated HIV substantially declined between 1999 and 2016 in most occupations, irrespective of gender, including by 70% among men (12.3 to 4.2%; adjPRR = 0.30; 95%CI:0.23–0.41) and by 78% among women (14.7 to 4.0%; adjPRR = 0.22; 95%CI:0.18–0.27) working in agriculture, the most common self-reported primary occupation. Exceptions included men working in transportation. HIV incidence similarly declined in most occupations, but there were no reductions in incidence among female bar and restaurant workers, women working in local crafts, or men working in transportation. In summary, untreated HIV infection and HIV incidence have declined within most occupational groups in Uganda. However, women working in bars/restaurants and local crafts and men working in transportation continue to have a relatively high burden of untreated HIV and HIV incidence, and as such, should be considered priority populations for HIV programming

Quantifying HIV transmission flow between high-prevalence hotspots and surrounding communities: a population-based study in Rakai, Uganda

Background International and global organisations advocate targeting interventions to areas of high HIV prevalence (ie, hotspots). To better understand the potential benefits of geo-targeted control, we assessed the extent to which HIV hotspots along Lake Victoria sustain transmission in neighbouring populations in south-central Uganda. Methods We did a population-based survey in Rakai, Uganda, using data from the Rakai Community Cohort Study. The study surveyed all individuals aged 15–49 years in four high-prevalence Lake Victoria fishing communities and 36 neighbouring inland communities. Viral RNA was deep sequenced from participants infected with HIV who were antiretroviral therapy-naive during the observation period. Phylogenetic analysis was used to infer partial HIV transmission networks, including direction of transmission. Reconstructed networks were interpreted through data for current residence and migration history. HIV transmission flows within and between high-prevalence and low-prevalence areas were quantified adjusting for incomplete sampling of the population. Findings Between Aug 10, 2011, and Jan 30, 2015, data were collected for the Rakai Community Cohort Study. 25 882 individuals participated, including an estimated 75·7% of the lakeside population and 16·2% of the inland population in the Rakai region of Uganda. 5142 participants were HIV-positive (2703 [13·7%] in inland and 2439 [40·1%] in fishing communities). 3878 (75·4%) people who were HIV-positive did not report antiretroviral therapy use, of whom 2652 (68·4%) had virus deep-sequenced at sufficient quality for phylogenetic analysis. 446 transmission networks were reconstructed, including 293 linked pairs with inferred direction of transmission. Adjusting for incomplete sampling, an estimated 5·7% (95% credibility interval 4·4–7·3) of transmissions occurred within lakeside areas, 89·2% (86·0–91·8) within inland areas, 1·3% (0·6–2·6) from lakeside to inland areas, and 3·7% (2·3–5·8) from inland to lakeside areas. Interpretation Cross-community HIV transmissions between Lake Victoria hotspots and surrounding inland populations are infrequent and when they occur, virus more commonly flows into rather than out of hotspots. This result suggests that targeted interventions to these hotspots will not alone control the epidemic in inland populations, where most transmissions occur. Thus, geographical targeting of high prevalence areas might not be effective for broader epidemic control depending on underlying epidemic dynamics. Funding The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, the National Institute of Mental Health, the National Institute of Child Health and Development, the Division of Intramural Research of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, the World Bank, the Doris Duke Charitable Foundation, the Johns Hopkins University Center for AIDS Research, and the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Inferring HIV-1 transmission networks and sources of epidemic spread in Africa with deep-sequence phylogenetic analysis

To prevent new infections with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) in sub-Saharan Africa, UNAIDS recommends targeting interventions to populations that are at high risk of acquiring and passing on the virus. Yet it is often unclear who and where these ‘source’ populations are. Here we demonstrate how viral deep-sequencing can be used to reconstruct HIV-1 transmission networks and to infer the direction of transmission in these networks. We are able to deep-sequence virus from a large population-based sample of infected individuals in Rakai District, Uganda, reconstruct partial transmission networks, and infer the direction of transmission within them at an estimated error rate of 16.3% [8.8–28.3%]. With this error rate, deep-sequence phylogenetics cannot be used against individuals in legal contexts, but is sufficiently low for population-level inferences into the sources of epidemic spread. The technique presents new opportunities for characterizing source populations and for targeting of HIV-1 prevention interventions in Africa

Association of medical male circumcision and antiretroviral therapy scale-up with community HIV incidence in Rakai, Uganda

Importance: Medical male circumcision (MMC) and antiretroviral therapy (ART) are proven HIV prevention interventions, but there are limited data on the population-level effect of scale-up of these interventions in sub-Saharan Africa. Such evaluation is important for planning and resource allocation. Objective: To examine whether increasing community MMC and ART coverage was associated with reduced community HIV incidence in Rakai District, Uganda. Design, Setting, and Participants: Using person-level data from population-based surveys conducted from 1999 through 2013 in 45 rural Rakai communities, community-level ART and MMC coverage, sociodemographics, sexual behaviors, and HIV prevalence and incidence were estimated in 3 periods: prior to the availability of ART and MMC (1999–2004), during early availability of ART and MMC (2004–2007), and during mature program scale-up (2007–2013). Exposures: Community MMC coverage in males and ART coverage in HIV-positive persons of the opposite sex based on self-reported MMC status and ART use. Main Outcomes and Measures: Adjusted incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for sex-specific community HIV incidence estimated using multivariable Poisson regression with generalized estimating equations. Results: From 1999 through 2013, 44 688 persons participated in 1 or more surveys (mean age at the first survey, 24.6 years [range, 15-49]; female, 56.5%; mean survey participation rate, 92.6% [95% CI, 92.4%-92.7%]). Median community MMC coverage increased from 19% to 39%, and median community ART coverage rose from 0% to 21% in males and from 0% to 26% in females. Median community HIV incidence declined from 1.25 to 0.84 per 100 person-years in males, and from 1.25 to 0.99 per 100 person-years in females. Among males, each 10% increase in community MMC coverage was associated with an adjusted IRR of 0.87 (95% CI, 0.82-0.93). Comparing communities with MMC coverage more than 40% (mean male community incidence, 1.03 per 100 person-years) with communities with coverage of 10% or less (mean male incidence, 1.69 per 100 person-years), the adjusted IRR was 0.61 (95% CI, 0.43-0.88). For each 10% increase in female self-reported ART coverage, there was no significant reduction in male HIV incidence (adjusted IRR, 0.95 [95% CI, 0.81-1.13]). Comparing communities with female ART coverage more than 20% (mean male incidence, 0.87 per 100 person-years) to communities with female ART coverage of 20% or less (mean male incidence, 1.17 per 100 person-years), the adjusted IRR was 0.77 (95% CI, 0.61-0.98). Neither MMC nor male ART coverage was associated with lower female community HIV incidence. Conclusions and Relevance: In Rakai, Uganda, increasing community MMC and female ART coverage was associated with lower community HIV incidence in males. If similar associations are found elsewhere, this would support further scale-up of MMC and ART for HIV prevention in sub-Saharan Africa

HIV serologically indeterminate individuals: Future HIV status and risk factors.

BackgroundIndeterminate HIV test results are common, but little is known about the evolution of indeterminate serology and its sociodemographic and behavioral correlates. We assessed future HIV serological outcomes for individuals with indeterminate results and associated factors in Rakai, Uganda.Methods115,944 serological results, defined by two enzyme immunoassay (EIAs), among 39,440 individuals aged 15-49 years in the Rakai Community Cohort Study were assessed. Indeterminate results were defined as contradictory EIAs. Modified Poisson regression models with generalized estimating equations were used to assess prevalence ratios (PRs) of subsequent HIV serological outcomes and factors associated with HIV indeterminate results.ResultsThe prevalence of HIV serologically indeterminate results was 4.9%. Indeterminate results were less likely among women than men (adjPR 0.76, 95% CI 0.71,0.81), in unmarried participants than married participants (adjPR 0.92, 95% CI 0.85,99), and in individuals with primary (adjPR 0.90, 95% CI 0.80,1.02), secondary (adjPR 0.83, 95% CI 0.73,0.96) and post-secondary (adjPR 0.75, 95% CI 0.60,0.94) education, relative to no education. The proportions of persons with indeterminate results progressing to HIV positive, negative or indeterminate results in subsequent visits was 5%, 71% and 24%, respectively.ConclusionHIV serologically indeterminate results were associated with gender and marital status. HIV surveillance programs should develop a protocol for reporting individuals with mixed or persistently indeterminate HIV results on multiple follow-up visits. Most indeterminate results became HIV-negative over time, but follow-up is still needed to detect positive serologies

Male population by BMI category over sociodemographic characteristics, including mean BMI.

Male population by BMI category over sociodemographic characteristics, including mean BMI.</p