Age and Prostate-Specific Antigen Level Prior to Diagnosis Predict Risk of Death from Prostate Cancer.

A single early prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level has been correlated with a higher likelihood of prostate cancer diagnosis and death in younger men. PSA testing in older men has been considered of limited utility. We evaluated prostate cancer death in relation to age and PSA level immediately prior to prostate cancer diagnosis. Using the Veterans Affairs database, we identified 230,081 men aged 50-89 years diagnosed with prostate cancer and at least one prior PSA test between 1999 and 2009. Prostate cancer-specific death over time was calculated for patients stratified by age group (e.g., 50-59 years, through 80-89 years) and PSA range at diagnosis (10 ranges) using Kaplan-Meier methods. Risk of 10-year prostate cancer mortality across age and PSA was compared using log-rank tests with a Bonferroni adjustment for multiple testing. 10.5% of men diagnosed with prostate cancer died of cancer during the 10-year study period (mean follow-up = 3.7 years). Higher PSA values prior to diagnosis predict a higher risk of death in all age groups (p < 0.0001). Within the same PSA range, older age groups are at increased risk for death from prostate cancer (p < 0.0001). For PSA of 7-10 ng/mL, cancer-specific death, 10 years after diagnosis, increased from 7% for age 50-59 years to 51% for age 80-89 years. Men older than 70 years are more likely to die of prostate cancer at any PSA level than younger men, suggesting prostate cancer remains a significant problem among older men (even those aged 80+) and deserves additional study

Age and Prostate-Specific Antigen Level Prior to Diagnosis Predict Risk of Death from Prostate Cancer.

A single early prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level has been correlated with a higher likelihood of prostate cancer diagnosis and death in younger men. PSA testing in older men has been considered of limited utility. We evaluated prostate cancer death in relation to age and PSA level immediately prior to prostate cancer diagnosis. Using the Veterans Affairs database, we identified 230,081 men aged 50-89 years diagnosed with prostate cancer and at least one prior PSA test between 1999 and 2009. Prostate cancer-specific death over time was calculated for patients stratified by age group (e.g., 50-59 years, through 80-89 years) and PSA range at diagnosis (10 ranges) using Kaplan-Meier methods. Risk of 10-year prostate cancer mortality across age and PSA was compared using log-rank tests with a Bonferroni adjustment for multiple testing. 10.5% of men diagnosed with prostate cancer died of cancer during the 10-year study period (mean follow-up = 3.7 years). Higher PSA values prior to diagnosis predict a higher risk of death in all age groups (p < 0.0001). Within the same PSA range, older age groups are at increased risk for death from prostate cancer (p < 0.0001). For PSA of 7-10 ng/mL, cancer-specific death, 10 years after diagnosis, increased from 7% for age 50-59 years to 51% for age 80-89 years. Men older than 70 years are more likely to die of prostate cancer at any PSA level than younger men, suggesting prostate cancer remains a significant problem among older men (even those aged 80+) and deserves additional study

Prostate-Specific Antigen Trends Predict the Probability of Prostate Cancer in a Very Large U.S. Veterans Affairs Cohort

If prostate-specific antigen (PSA) trends help identify elevated prostate cancer (PCa) risk, they might provide early warning of progressing cancer for further evaluation and justify annual testing. Our objective was to determine whether PSA trends predict PCa likelihood. A biopsy cohort of 361,657 men was obtained from a Veterans Affairs database (1999–2012). PSA trends were estimated for the 310,458 men with at least 2 PSA tests prior to biopsy. Cancer tumors may grow exponentially with cells doubling periodically. We hypothesized that PSA from prostate cancer grows exponentially above a no cancer baseline. We estimated PSA trends on that basis along with five descriptive variables: last PSA before biopsy, growth rate in PSA from cancer above a baseline, PSA variability around the trend, number of PSA tests, and time span of tests. PSA variability is a new variable that measures percentage deviations of PSA tests from estimated trends with 0% variability for a smoothly increasing trend. Logistic regression models were used to estimate relationships between the probability of PCa at biopsy and the trend variables and age. All five PSA trend variables and age were significant predictors of prostate cancer at biopsy (p < 0.0001). An overall logistic regression model achieved an AUC of 0.67 for men with at least 4 tests over at least 3 years, which was a substantial improvement over a single PSA (AUC 0.58). High probability of PCa was associated with low PSA variability (smooth trends), high PSA, high growth rate, many tests over a long time-span and older age. For example, at 4.0 PSA the probability of cancer is 32% for 1 PSA test and increases to 68% for 8 tests over 7 years with smooth, fast growth (0% variability and 50% exponential growth). Our results show that smooth, fast exponential growth in PSA above a baseline predicts an increased probability of PCa. The probability increases as smooth (low variability) trends are observed for more tests over a longer time span, which makes annual testing worth considering. Worrisome PSA trends might be used to trigger further evaluation and continued monitoring of the trends—even at low PSA levels

Doubling of Decipher Biopsy Genomic Score Is Related to Disease Reclassification on Subsequent Surveillance Biopsy but Not Adverse Features on Radical Prostatectomy

The utility of serial Decipher biopsy scores in a true active surveillance population is still unknown. In a man on active surveillance for low-risk prostate cancer, a doubling of the Decipher biopsy score within genomic low-risk category from first to the second biopsy related to biopsy reclassification to Gleason grade group 4 on the third biopsy. However, the final pathology at radical prostatectomy showed Gleason grade group 2 with an organ-confined disease. This case suggests that the genomic risk category of Decipher biopsy scores during active surveillance may be more informative than either the interval genomic score change or the biopsy Gleason grade group

Multi-institutional analysis of clinical and imaging risk factors for detecting clinically significant prostate cancer in men with PI-RADS 3 lesions

Background Most Prostate Imaging-Reporting and Data System (PI-RADS) 3 lesions do not contain clinically significant prostate cancer (CSPCa; grade group >= 2). This study was aimed at identifying clinical and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-derived risk fac- tors that predict CSPCa in men with PI-RADS 3 lesions. Methods This study analyzed the detection of CSPCa in men who underwent MRI-targeted biopsy for PI-RADS 3 lesions. Multivariable logistic regression models with goodness-of-fit testing were used to identify variables associated with CSPCa. Receiver operating curves and decision curve analyses were used to estimate the clinical utility of a predictive model. Results Of the 1784 men reviewed, 1537 were included in the training cohort, and 247 were included in the validation cohort. The 309 men with CSPCa (17.3%) were older, had a higher prostate-specific antigen (PSA) density, and had a greater likelihood of an anteriorly located lesion than men without CSPCa (p < .01). Multivariable analysis revealed that PSA density (odds ratio [OR], 1.36; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05-1.85; p < .01), age (OR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.02-1.07; p < .01), and a biopsy-naive status (OR, 1.83; 95% CI, 1.38-2.44) were independently associated with CSPCa. A prior negative biopsy was negatively associated (OR, 0.35; 95% CI, 0.24-0.50; p < .01). The application of the model to the validation cohort resulted in an area under the curve of 0.78. A predicted risk threshold of 12% could have prevented 25% of biopsies while detecting almost 95% of CSPCas with a sensitivity of 94% and a specificity of 34%. Conclusions For PI-RADS 3 lesions, an elevated PSA density, older age, and a biopsy-naive status were associated with CSPCa, whereas a prior negative biopsy was negatively associated. A predictive model could prevent PI-RADS 3 biopsies while missing few CSPCas. Lay summary Among men with an equivocal lesion (Prostate Imaging-Reporting and Data System 3) on multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI), those who are older, those who have a higher prostate-specific antigen density, and those who have never had a biopsy before are at higher risk for having clinically significant prostate cancer (CSPCa) on subsequent biopsy. However, men with at least one negative biopsy have a lower risk of CSPCa. A new predictive model can greatly reduce the need to biopsy equivocal lesions noted on mpMRI while missing only a few cases of CSPCa

Association Between a 22-feature Genomic Classifier and Biopsy Gleason Upgrade During Active Surveillance for Prostate Cancer.

BackgroundAlthough the Decipher genomic classifier has been validated as a prognostic tool for several prostate cancer endpoints, little is known about its role in assessing the risk of biopsy reclassification for patients on active surveillance, a key event that often triggers treatment.ObjectiveTo evaluate the association between Decipher genomic classifier scores and biopsy Gleason upgrading among patients on active surveillance.Design setting and participantsThis was a retrospective cohort study among patients with low- and favorable intermediate-risk prostate cancer on active surveillance who underwent biopsy-based Decipher testing as part of their clinical care.Outcome measurements and statistical analysisWe evaluated the association between the Decipher score and any increase in biopsy Gleason grade group (GG) using univariable and multivariable logistic regression. We compared the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for models comprising baseline clinical variables with or without the Decipher score.Results and limitationsWe identified 133 patients for inclusion with a median age of 67.7 yr and median prostate-specific of 5.6 ng/ml. At enrollment, 75.9% had GG1 and 24.1% had GG2 disease. Forty-three patients experienced biopsy upgrading. On multivariable logistic regression, the Decipher score was significantly associated with biopsy upgrading (odds ratio 1.37 per 0.10 unit increase, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05-1.79; p = 0.02). The Decipher score was associated with upgrading among patients with biopsy GG 1 disease, but not GG2 disease. The discriminative ability of a clinical model (AUC 0.63, 95% CI 0.51-0.74) was improved by integration of the Decipher score (AUC 0.69, 95% CI 0.58-0.80).ConclusionsThe Decipher genomic classifier score was associated with short-term biopsy Gleason upgrading among patients on active surveillance.Patient summaryThe results from this study indicate that among patients with prostate cancer undergoing active surveillance, those with higher Decipher scores were more likely to have higher-grade disease found over time. These findings indicate that the Decipher test might be useful for guiding the intensity of monitoring during active surveillance, such as more frequent biopsy for patients with higher scores

Gleason 6 Prostate Cancer: Translating Biology into Population Health

PurposeGleason 6 (3+3) is the most commonly diagnosed prostate cancer among men with prostate specific antigen screening, the most histologically well differentiated and is associated with the most favorable prognosis. Despite its prevalence, considerable debate exists regarding the genetic features, clinical significance, natural history, metastatic potential and optimal management.Materials and methodsMembers of the Young Urologic Oncologists in the Society of Urologic Oncology cooperated in a comprehensive search of the peer reviewed English medical literature on Gleason 6 prostate cancer, specifically focusing on the history of the Gleason scoring system, histological features, clinical characteristics, practice patterns and outcomes.ResultsThe Gleason scoring system was devised in the early 1960s, widely adopted by 1987 and revised in 2005 with a more restrictive definition of Gleason 6 disease. There is near consensus that Gleason 6 meets pathological definitions of cancer, but controversy about whether it meets commonly accepted molecular and genetic criteria of cancer. Multiple clinical series suggest that the metastatic potential of contemporary Gleason 6 disease is negligible but not zero. Population based studies in the U.S. suggest that more than 90% of men newly diagnosed with prostate cancer undergo treatment and are exposed to the risk of morbidity for a cancer unlikely to cause symptoms or decrease life expectancy. Efforts have been proposed to minimize the number of men diagnosed with or treated for Gleason 6 prostate cancer. These include modifications to prostate specific antigen based screening strategies such as targeting high risk populations, decreasing the frequency of screening, recommending screening cessation, incorporating remaining life expectancy estimates, using shared decision making and novel biomarkers, and eliminating prostate specific antigen screening entirely. Large nonrandomized and randomized studies have shown that active surveillance is an effective management strategy for men with Gleason 6 disease. Active surveillance dramatically reduces the number of men undergoing treatment without apparent compromise of cancer related outcomes.ConclusionsThe definition and clinical relevance of Gleason 6 prostate cancer have changed substantially since its introduction nearly 50 years ago. A high proportion of screen detected cancers are Gleason 6 and the metastatic potential is negligible. Dramatically reducing the diagnosis and treatment of Gleason 6 disease is likely to have a favorable impact on the net benefit of prostate cancer screening