413 research outputs found

    weather@home 2: validation of an improved global–regional climate modelling system

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    Extreme weather events can have large impacts on society and, in many regions, are expected to change in frequency and intensity with climate change. Owing to the relatively short observational record, climate models are useful tools as they allow for generation of a larger sample of extreme events, to attribute recent events to anthropogenic climate change, and to project changes in such events into the future. The modelling system known as weather@home, consisting of a global climate model (GCM) with a nested regional climate model (RCM) and driven by sea surface temperatures, allows one to generate a very large ensemble with the help of volunteer distributed computing. This is a key tool to understanding many aspects of extreme events. Here, a new version of the weather@home system (weather@home 2) with a higher-resolution RCM over Europe is documented and a broad validation of the climate is performed. The new model includes a more recent land-surface scheme in both GCM and RCM, where subgrid-scale land-surface heterogeneity is newly represented using tiles, and an increase in RCM resolution from 50 to 25 km. The GCM performs similarly to the previous version, with some improvements in the representation of mean climate. The European RCM temperature biases are overall reduced, in particular the warm bias over eastern Europe, but large biases remain. Precipitation is improved over the Alps in summer, with mixed changes in other regions and seasons. The model is shown to represent the main classes of regional extreme events reasonably well and shows a good sensitivity to its drivers. In particular, given the improvements in this version of the weather@home system, it is likely that more reliable statements can be made with regards to impact statements, especially at more localized scales

    Increasing mitigation ambition to meet the Paris Agreement's temperature goal avoids substantial heat-related mortality in U.S. cities.

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    Current greenhouse gas mitigation ambition is consistent with ~3°C global mean warming above preindustrial levels. There is a clear need to strengthen mitigation ambition to stabilize the climate at the Paris Agreement goal of warming of less than 2°C. We specify the differences in city-level heat-related mortality between the 3°C trajectory and warming of 2° and 1.5°C. Focusing on 15 U.S. cities where reliable climate and health data are available, we show that ratcheting up mitigation ambition to achieve the 2°C threshold could avoid between 70 and 1980 annual heat-related deaths per city during extreme events (30-year return period). Achieving the 1.5°C threshold could avoid between 110 and 2720 annual heat-related deaths. Population changes and adaptation investments would alter these numbers. Our results provide compelling evidence for the heat-related health benefits of limiting global warming to 1.5°C in the United States

    In-Home Training for Fathers of Children with Autism: A Follow up Study and Evaluation of Four Individual Training Components

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    Literature regarding fathers of children with autism remains sparse, and because mothers are the more common intervening parent, few training methods have focused on fathers. Thus, we sought to evaluate effects of in-home training directed at fathers and their ability to train mothers in the same manner in which they were trained. Fathers were taught four skills commonly associated with in-home training interventions for parents of children with autism: following the child’s lead, imitation with animation, commenting on the child, and expectant waiting. Father skills were evaluated twice a week for 12 weeks during videotaped in-home father–child play sessions. Analyses included visual inspection of graphed data and statistical analyses of father skill acquisition, mother skill acquisition, and child behaviors with both parents. A multivariate repeated measures analysis of 18 dyads revealed significant increases in frequencies of fathers’ imitation with animation, expectant waiting, and commenting on the child. Child initiating rates increased significantly as did frequencies of child non-speech vocalizations. Analysis of mothers revealed significant increases in frequencies of imitation with animation, expectant waiting, and following the child’s lead. Child behaviors had similar results for father and mother sessions. Findings are consistent with those from our first study indicating that fathers can effectively implement skills that promote father–child social interactions and that children respond positively to this approach

    Physiogenomic analysis of weight loss induced by dietary carbohydrate restriction

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    BACKGROUND: Diets that restrict carbohydrate (CHO) have proven to be a successful dietary treatment of obesity for many people, but the degree of weight loss varies across individuals. The extent to which genetic factors associate with the magnitude of weight loss induced by CHO restriction is unknown. We examined associations among polymorphisms in candidate genes and weight loss in order to understand the physiological factors influencing body weight responses to CHO restriction. METHODS: We screened for genetic associations with weight loss in 86 healthy adults who were instructed to restrict CHO to a level that induced a small level of ketosis (CHO ~10% of total energy). A total of 27 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were selected from 15 candidate genes involved in fat digestion/metabolism, intracellular glucose metabolism, lipoprotein remodeling, and appetite regulation. Multiple linear regression was used to rank the SNPs according to probability of association, and the most significant associations were analyzed in greater detail. RESULTS: Mean weight loss was 6.4 kg. SNPs in the gastric lipase (LIPF), hepatic glycogen synthase (GYS2), cholesteryl ester transfer protein (CETP) and galanin (GAL) genes were significantly associated with weight loss. CONCLUSION: A strong association between weight loss induced by dietary CHO restriction and variability in genes regulating fat digestion, hepatic glucose metabolism, intravascular lipoprotein remodeling, and appetite were detected. These discoveries could provide clues to important physiologic adaptations underlying the body mass response to CHO restriction

    Performance of risk prediction for inflammatory bowel disease based on genotyping platform and genomic risk score method

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    Background: Predicting risk of disease from genotypes is being increasingly proposed for a variety of diagnostic and prognostic purposes. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified a large number of genome-wide significant susceptibility loci for Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC), two subtypes of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Recent studies have demonstrated that including only loci that are significantly associated with disease in the prediction model has low predictive power and that power can substantially be improved using a polygenic approach. Methods: We performed a comprehensive analysis of risk prediction models using large case-control cohorts genotyped for 909,763 GWAS SNPs or 123,437 SNPs on the custom designed Immunochip using four prediction methods (polygenic score, best linear genomic prediction, elastic-net regularization and a Bayesian mixture model). We used the area under the curve (AUC) to assess prediction performance for discovery populations with different sample sizes and number of SNPs within cross-validation. Results: On average, the Bayesian mixture approach had the best prediction performance. Using cross-validation we found little differences in prediction performance between GWAS and Immunochip, despite the GWAS array providing a 10 times larger effective genome-wide coverage. The prediction performance using Immunochip is largely due to the power of the initial GWAS for its marker selection and its low cost that enabled larger sample sizes. The predictive ability of the genomic risk score based on Immunochip was replicated in external data, with AUC of 0.75 for CD and 0.70 for UC. CD patients with higher risk scores demonstrated clinical characteristics typically associated with a more severe disease course including ileal location and earlier age at diagnosis. Conclusions: Our analyses demonstrate that the power of genomic risk prediction for IBD is mainly due to strongly associated SNPs with considerable effect sizes. Additional SNPs that are only tagged by high-density GWAS arrays and low or rare-variants over-represented in the high-density region on the Immunochip contribute little to prediction accuracy. Although a quantitative assessment of IBD risk for an individual is not currently possible, we show sufficient power of genomic risk scores to stratify IBD risk among individuals at diagnosis.Guo-Bo Chen, Sang Hong Lee, Grant W. Montgomery, Naomi R. Wray, Peter M. Visscher, Richard B. Gearry, Ian C. Lawrance, Jane M. Andrews, Peter Bampton, Gillian Mahy, Sally Bell, Alissa Walsh, Susan Connor, Miles Sparrow, Lisa M. Bowdler, Lisa A. Simms, Krupa Krishnaprasad, the International IBD Genetics Consortium, Graham L. Radford-Smith, and Gerhard Moser

    A review of the current treatment methods for posthaemorrhagic hydrocephalus of infants

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    Posthaemorrhagic hydrocephalus (PHH) is a major problem for premature infants, generally requiring lifelong care. It results from small blood clots inducing scarring within CSF channels impeding CSF circulation. Transforming growth factor – beta is released into CSF and cytokines stimulate deposition of extracellular matrix proteins which potentially obstruct CSF pathways. Prolonged raised pressures and free radical damage incur poor neurodevelopmental outcomes. The most common treatment involves permanent ventricular shunting with all its risks and consequences
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