A mathematically assisted reconstruction of the initial focus of the yellow fever outbreak in Buenos Aires (1871)

We discuss the historic mortality record corresponding to the initial focus of the yellow fever epidemic outbreak registered in Buenos Aires during the year 1871 as compared to simulations of a stochastic population dynamics model. This model incorporates the biology of the urban vector of yellow fever, the mosquito Aedes aegypti, the stages of the disease in the human being as well as the spatial extension of the epidemic outbreak. After introducing the historical context and the restrictions it puts on initial conditions and ecological parameters, we discuss the general features of the simulation and the dependence on initial conditions and available sites for breeding the vector. We discuss the sensitivity, to the free parameters, of statistical estimators such as: final death toll, day of the year when the outbreak reached half the total mortality and the normalized daily mortality, showing some striking regularities. The model is precise and accurate enough to discuss the truthfulness of the presently accepted historic discussions of the epidemic causes, showing that there are more likely scenarios for the historic facts.Comment: 25 pages, 12 figure

A GIS-based procedure for landslide intensity evaluation and specific risk analysis supported by persistent scatterers interferometry (PSI)

The evaluation of landslide specific risk, defined as the expected degree of loss due to landslides, requires the parameterization and the combination of a number of socio-economic and geological factors, which often needs the interaction of different skills and expertise (geologists, engineers, planners, administrators, etc.). The specific risk sub-components, i.e., hazard and vulnerability of elements at risk, can be determined with different levels of detail depending on the available auxiliary data and knowledge of the territory. These risk factors are subject to short-term variations and nowadays turn out to be easily mappable and evaluable through remotely sensed data and GIS (Geographic Information System) tools. In this work, we propose a qualitative approach at municipal scale for producing a “specific risk” map, supported by recent satellite PSI (Persistent Scatterer Interferometry) data derived from SENTINEL-1 C-band images in the spanning time 2014–2017, implemented in a GIS environment. In particular, PSI measurements are useful for the updating of a landslide inventory map of the area of interest and are exploited for the zonation map of the intensity of ground movements, needed for evaluating the vulnerability over the study area. Our procedure is presented throughout the application to the Volterra basin and the output map could be useful to support the local authorities with updated basic information required for environmental knowledge and planning at municipal level. Moreover, the proposed procedure is easily managed and repeatable in other case studies, as well as exploiting different SAR sensors in L- or X-band

Equilibrium Cross Section of River Channels With Cohesive Erodible Banks

Predicting the equilibrium cross section of natural rivers has been widely investigated in fluvial morphology. Several approaches have been developed to meet this aim, starting from regime equations to the empirical formulations of Parker et al. (2007) and Wilkerson and Parker (2011), who proposed quasi-universal relations for describing bankfull conditions in sand and gravel bed rivers. Nevertheless, a general physics-based framework is still missing, and it remains an open issue to better clarify the basic mechanisms whereby a river selects its width. In this contribution we focus our attention on lowland rivers with cohesive banks, whose resistance to erosion is crucial to control the river width. In particular, we formulate a theoretical model that evaluates the equilibrium width of river cross sections modeling the interaction between the core flow in the central part of the section and the boundary layer that forms in the vicinity of the cohesive banks. The model computes the cross-section equilibrium configuration by which the shear stresses on the banks equal a critical threshold value. These stresses are computed by partitioning the total shear stress into an effective grain roughness component and a form component (Kean and Smith, 2006a). The model is applied to a large data set, concerning both sand and gravel bed rivers, and it is used to determine the relations expressing the channel width and the bankfull flow depth to the bankfull discharge, which appear to provide a unitary description of bankfull hydraulic geometry

Los paradigmas del derecho penal: “el progreso de la ciencia a través de las revoluciones científicas

The construction of the scientific nature of criminal law has been strongly marked by the advances made in the field of experimental sciences. The current scientific paradigm has determined its own development and its need to adapt, with more or less effort, to the parameters prevailing in other areas of knowledge. The analysis of this conditioned evolution is proposed, in a novel way, by importing the model of succession of scientific revolutions proposed by the philosopher Thomas Kuhn, where the accumulation of anomalies will lead to a scientific revolution in the discipline that will end with the substitution of the paradigm for another more in line with the new reality.  In the current situation, however, it is worth asking whether the deep social transformations that are taking place can find an answer in the current para­digm or, on the contrary, it is necessary to adopt more appropriate solutions.La construcción de la cientificidad del derecho penal ha estado fuertemente marcada por los avances producidos en el ámbito de las ciencias más experimentales. El paradigma científico vigente en cada momento ha determinado su propio desarrollo y su necesidad de adaptarse, con mayor o menor esfuerzo, a los parámetros imperantes en otras áreas de conocimiento. El análisis de esta evolución condicionada se propone, de modo novedoso, importando el modelo de sucesión de revoluciones científicas propuesto por el filósofo Thomas Kuhn, donde la acumulación de anomalías va a dar lugar a una revolución científica en la disciplina que acabará con la sustitución del paradigma por otro más acorde con la nueva realidad. En la situación actual, no obstante, cabe preguntarse si las profundas trans­formaciones sociales que están teniendo lugar pueden hallar respuesta en el paradigma vigente o, por el contrario, es necesaria la adopción de soluciones más acordes

Actividades cotidianas en redes sociales Estudio del comportamiento habitual y las medidas protección de los usuarios de Facebook, Instagram y Twitter

The increasing use of social networks leads to an increasing exposure of personal information that can be used for the commission of various types of crimes. This new space of crime has been analysed on different occasions in light of the Routine Activity Theory and Lifestyles Theory, placing special interest in the habitual routines of users of these platforms - online lifestyles - and in the self-protection measures that they establish - guardians - to avoid becoming a suitable target. Based on thesedevelopments, this work analyses the habitual behaviour of the users ofthe main social networks –Facebook, Instagram and Twitter– in order to determine their degree of self-exposure, their self-protection measures and the negative consequences experienced with their use.El creciente uso de las redes sociales conlleva una exposición cada vez mayor de información personal susceptible de ser utilizada para la comisión de diversos delitos. Este nuevo espacio de criminalidad ha sido analizado en diversas ocasiones a la luz de la Teoría de las Actividades Cotidianas y de los estilos de vida, poniendo especial interés en las rutinas habituales de los usuarios de estas plataformas –estilos de vida online- y en las medidas de autoprotección que establecen –guardianes- para evitar convertirse en objetivos adecuados. Sobre la base de estos desarrollos, el presente trabajo analiza el comportamiento habitual de los usuarios de las principales redes sociales –Facebook, Instagram y Twitter- a efectos de determinar su grado de autoexposición, las medidas de autoprotección y las consecuencias negativas experimentadas con su uso

Manipulación genética y bienes jurídicos: cuando la especie determina el interés afectado

This paper analyzes the Spanish criminal legal regulation of scientific activity concerning genetics. Specifically, the focus of the analysis is the conception of the legal good protected in the regulation to determine whether the human genetic heritage is an interest worthy of criminal protection. Thus, it is especially relevant that genetic activity is not addressed in the same way in our legislation. Rather, a differentiation is made according to whether the genetics subject to manipulation are that of human beings or other living beings. In one case or another, the basis of criminal intervention seems to change, resulting in a differentiated criminalization in the Criminal Code. That is, genetics as a common element to all behaviors is relegated to the background prioritizing, as necessary, the legally protected interest in each case.El presente trabajo analiza la regulación jurídico penal española de la actividad científica concerniente a la genética. En concreto, se sitúa en el foco del análisis la concepción sobre el bien jurídico tutelado en la regulación para determinar si el patrimonio genético humano es un interés digno de protección penal. Así, resulta especialmente relevante que la actividad genética no se aborda de igual modo en nuestra legislación. Antes bien, se realiza una diferenciación en atención a si la genética objeto de manipulación es la de los seres humanos u otros seres vivos. En un caso u otro, el fundamento de la intervención penal parece cambiar, lo que da lugar a una tipificación diferenciada en el Código Penal. Esto es, lo genético como elemento común a todas las conductas queda relegado a un segundo plano primando, como es menester, el bien jurídico tutelado en cada caso

Local treatment with electrochemotherapy of superficial angiosarcomas: Efficacy and safety results from a multi-institutional retrospective study

Background: Angiosarcoma is an aggressive vascular neoplasm with a high propensity for local recurrence. Electrochemotherapy is an emerging skin-directed therapy, exerting prominent cytotoxic activity, and antivascular effects. Its efficacy in angiosarcoma has not been investigated. Methods: This multicenter retrospective analysis reviewed patients who underwent electrochemotherapy from 2007 to 2014 for superficial advanced angiosarcomas. Bleomycin was administered intravenously and delivered within tumors by means of percutaneously applied electric pulses, according to the European Standard Operating Procedures for Electrochemotherapy. Tumor assessment was performed using RECIST (version 1.1). Toxicity (CTCAE, v4.0) and local progression-free survival (LPFS) were also evaluated. Results: Nineteen patients (13 with locally advanced and 6 with metastatic angiosarcomas) were treated. Tumor sites were: scalp (n¼5), breast(n¼8), other skin sites (n¼3), and soft tissue (n¼3). Target lesions (n¼54) ranged in size from 1.5 to 2.5 cm (median, 2 cm). Treatment was well tolerated. After 2 months, an objective response was observed in 12/19 (63%) patients, complete in 8 (42%). One-year LPFS within treatment field was 68%. Local symptom improvement included palliation of bleeding (5/19 patients) and pain relief (6/19 patients). Conclusions: Electrochemotherapy may represent a new locoregional treatment for selected patients with superficial angiosarcomas