A framework for modeling uncertainty in regional climate change

In this study, we present a new modeling framework and a large ensemble of climate projections to investigate the uncertainty in regional climate change over the United States (US) associated with four dimensions of uncertainty. The sources of uncertainty considered in this framework are the emissions projections, global climate system parameters, natural variability and model structural uncertainty. The modeling framework revolves around the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model with an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC) (with a two-dimensional zonal-mean atmosphere). Regional climate change over the US is obtained through a two-pronged approach. First, we use the IGSM-CAM framework, which links the IGSM to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Second, we use a pattern-scaling method that extends the IGSM zonal mean based on climate change patterns from various climate models. Results show that the range of annual mean temperature changes are mainly driven by policy choices and the range of climate sensitivity considered. Meanwhile, the four sources of uncertainty contribute more equally to end-of-century precipitation changes, with natural variability dominating until 2050. For the set of scenarios used in this study, the choice of policy is the largest driver of uncertainty, defined as the range of warming and changes in precipitation, in future projections of climate change over the US

Genotyping of Capreolus pygargus Fossil DNA from Denisova Cave Reveals Phylogenetic Relationships between Ancient and Modern Populations

BACKGROUND: The extant roe deer (Capreolus Gray, 1821) includes two species: the European roe deer (C. capreolus) and the Siberian roe deer (C. pygargus) that are distinguished by morphological and karyotypical differences. The Siberian roe deer occupies a vast area of Asia and is considerably less studied than the European roe deer. Modern systematics of the Siberian roe deer remain controversial with 4 morphological subspecies. Roe deer fossilized bones are quite abundant in Denisova cave (Altai Mountains, South Siberia), where dozens of both extant and extinct mammalian species from modern Holocene to Middle Pleistocene have been retrieved. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We analyzed a 629 bp fragment of the mitochondrial control region from ancient bones of 10 Holocene and four Pleistocene Siberian roe deer from Denisova cave as well as 37 modern specimen belonging to populations from Altai, Tian Shan (Kyrgyzstan), Yakutia, Novosibirsk region and the Russian Far East. Genealogical reconstructions indicated that most Holocene haplotypes were probably ancestral for modern roe deer populations of Western Siberia and Tian Shan. One of the Pleistocene haplotypes was possibly ancestral for modern Yakutian populations, and two extinct Pleistocene haplotypes were close to modern roe deer from Tian Shan and Yakutia. Most modern geographical populations (except for West Siberian Plains) are heterogeneous and there is some tentative evidence for structure. However, we did not find any distinct phylogenetic signal characterizing particular subspecies in either modern or ancient samples. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Analysis of mitochondrial DNA from both ancient and modern samples of Siberian roe deer shed new light on understanding the evolutionary history of roe deer. Our data indicate that during the last 50,000 years multiple replacements of populations of the Siberian roe deer took place in the Altai Mountains correlating with climatic changes. The Siberian roe deer represent a complex and heterogeneous species with high migration rates and without evident subspecies structure. Low genetic diversity of the West Siberian Plain population indicates a recent bottleneck or founder effect

Oscillatory surface rheotaxis of swimming E. coli bacteria

Bacterial contamination of biological conducts, catheters or water resources is a major threat to public health and can be amplified by the ability of bacteria to swim upstream. The mechanisms of this rheotaxis, the reorientation with respect to flow gradients, often in complex and confined environments, are still poorly understood. Here, we follow individual E. coli bacteria swimming at surfaces under shear flow with two complementary experimental assays, based on 3D Lagrangian tracking and fluorescent flagellar labelling and we develop a theoretical model for their rheotactic motion. Three transitions are identified with increasing shear rate: Above a first critical shear rate, bacteria shift to swimming upstream. After a second threshold, we report the discovery of an oscillatory rheotaxis. Beyond a third transition, we further observe coexistence of rheotaxis along the positive and negative vorticity directions. A full theoretical analysis explains these regimes and predicts the corresponding critical shear rates. The predicted transitions as well as the oscillation dynamics are in good agreement with experimental observations. Our results shed new light on bacterial transport and reveal new strategies for contamination prevention.Comment: 12 pages, 5 figure

The Spin Structure of the Nucleon

We present an overview of recent experimental and theoretical advances in our understanding of the spin structure of protons and neutrons.Comment: 84 pages, 29 figure

Whole-Community Facilitation Regulates Biodiversity on Patagonian Rocky Shores

Understanding the factors that generate and maintain biodiversity is a central goal in ecology. While positive species interactions (i.e., facilitation) have historically been underemphasized in ecological research, they are increasingly recognized as playing important roles in the evolution and maintenance of biodiversity. Dominant habitat-forming species (foundation species) buffer environmental conditions and can therefore facilitate myriad associated species. Theory predicts that facilitation will be the dominant community-structuring force under harsh environmental conditions, where organisms depend on shelter for survival and predation is diminished. Wind-swept, arid Patagonian rocky shores are one of the most desiccating intertidal rocky shores ever studied, providing an opportunity to test this theory and elucidate the context-dependency of facilitation.Surveys across 2100 km of southern Argentinean coastline and experimental manipulations both supported theoretical predictions, with 43 out of 46 species in the animal assemblage obligated to living within the matrices of mussels for protection from potentially lethal desiccation stress and predators having no detectable impact on diversity.These results provide the first experimental support of long-standing theoretical predictions and reveal that in extreme climates, maintenance of whole-community diversity can be maintained by positive interactions that ameliorate physical stress. These findings have important conservation implications and emphasize that preserving foundation species should be a priority in remediating the biodiversity consequences of global climate change

Acoustic Oddball during NREM Sleep: A Combined EEG/fMRI Study

Background: A condition vital for the consolidation and maintenance of sleep is generally reduced responsiveness to external stimuli. Despite this, the sleeper maintains a level of stimulus processing that allows to respond to potentially dangerous environmental signals. The mechanisms that subserve these contradictory functions are only incompletely understood. Methodology/Principal Findings: Using combined EEG/fMRI we investigated the neural substrate of sleep protection by applying an acoustic oddball paradigm during light NREM sleep. Further, we studied the role of evoked K-complexes (KCs), an electroencephalographic hallmark of NREM sleep with a still unknown role for sleep protection. Our main results were: (1) Other than in wakefulness, rare tones did not induce a blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD) signal increase in the auditory pathway but a strong negative BOLD response in motor areas and the amygdala. (2) Stratification of rare tones by the presence of evoked KCs detected activation of the auditory cortex, hippocampus, superior and middle frontal gyri and posterior cingulate only for rare tones followed by a KC. (3) The typical high frontocentral EEG deflections of KCs were not paralleled by a BOLD equivalent. Conclusions/Significance: We observed that rare tones lead to transient disengagement of motor and amygdala responses during light NREM sleep. We interpret this as a sleep protective mechanism to delimit motor responses and to reduce the sensitivity of the amygdala towards further incoming stimuli. Evoked KCs are suggested to originate from a brain state wit

Temperature Tolerance and Stress Proteins as Mechanisms of Invasive Species Success

Invasive species are predicted to be more successful than natives as temperatures increase with climate change. However, few studies have examined the physiological mechanisms that theoretically underlie this differential success. Because correlative evidence suggests that invasiveness is related to the width of a species' latitudinal range, it has been assumed – but largely untested – that range width predicts breadth of habitat temperatures and physiological thermotolerances. In this study, we use empirical data from a marine community as a case study to address the hypotheses that (1) geographic temperature range attributes are related to temperature tolerance, leading to greater eurythermality in invasive species, and (2) stress protein expression is a subcellular mechanism that could contribute to differences in thermotolerance. We examined three native and six invasive species common in the subtidal epibenthic communities of California, USA. We assessed thermotolerance by exposing individuals to temperatures between 14°C and 31°C and determining the temperature lethal to 50% of individuals (LT50) after a 24 hour exposure. We found a strong positive relationship between the LT50 and both maximum habitat temperatures and the breadth of temperatures experience across the species' ranges. In addition, of the species in our study, invasives tended to inhabit broader habitat temperature ranges and higher maximum temperatures. Stress protein expression may contribute to these differences: the more thermotolerant, invasive species Diplosoma listerianum expressed higher levels of a 70-kDa heat-shock protein than the less thermotolerant, native Distaplia occidentalis for which levels declined sharply above the LT50. Our data highlight differences between native and invasive species with respect to organismal and cellular temperature tolerances. Future studies should address, across a broader phylogenetic and ecosystem scope, whether this physiological mechanism has facilitated the current success of invasive species and could lead to greater success of invasives than native species as global warming continues

Projected Loss of a Salamander Diversity Hotspot as a Consequence of Projected Global Climate Change

Background: Significant shifts in climate are considered a threat to plants and animals with significant physiological limitations and limited dispersal abilities. The southern Appalachian Mountains are a global hotspot for plethodontid salamander diversity. Plethodontids are lungless ectotherms, so their ecology is strongly governed by temperature and precipitation. Many plethodontid species in southern Appalachia exist in high elevation habitats that may be at or near their thermal maxima, and may also have limited dispersal abilities across warmer valley bottoms. Methodology/Principal Findings: We used a maximum-entropy approach (program Maxent) to model the suitable climatic habitat of 41 plethodontid salamander species inhabiting the Appalachian Highlands region (33 individual species and eight species included within two species complexes). We evaluated the relative change in suitable climatic habitat for these species in the Appalachian Highlands from the current climate to the years 2020, 2050, and 2080, using both the HADCM3 and the CGCM3 models, each under low and high CO 2 scenarios, and using two-model thresholds levels (relative suitability thresholds for determining suitable/unsuitable range), for a total of 8 scenarios per species. Conclusion/Significance: While models differed slightly, every scenario projected significant declines in suitable habitat within the Appalachian Highlands as early as 2020. Species with more southern ranges and with smaller ranges had larger projected habitat loss. Despite significant differences in projected precipitation changes to the region, projections did no