The spectral dimension of longwave feedback in the CMIP3 and CMIP5 experiments

Radiative feedback is normally discussed in terms of the change of broadband flux. Yet it has an intrinsic dimension of spectrum. A set of longwave (LW) spectral radiative kernels (SRKs) is constructed and validated in a similar way as the broadband radiative kernel. The LW broadband feedback derived using this SRK are consistent with those from the broadband radiative kernels. As an application, the SRK is applied to 12 general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 and 12 GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 simulations to derive the spectrally resolved Planck, lapse rate, and LW water vapor feedback. The spectral details of the Planck feedback from different GCMs are essentially the same, but the lapse rate and LW water vapor feedback do reveal spectrally dependent difference among GCMs. Spatial distributions of the feedback at different spectral regions are also discussed. The spectral feedback analysis provides us another dimension to understand and evaluate the modeled radiative feedback. Key Points Spectral radiative kernel is developed and validated to get spectral feedback Lapse rate and water vapor feedback have different spectral dependence Spectral kernel provides new information not available from broadband studiesPeer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/110043/1/grl52334.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/110043/2/grl52334-sup-0001-readme.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/110043/3/grl52334-sup-0002-Auxiliary_material.pd

Environmental control of tropical cyclones in CMIP5: A ventilation perspective

The ventilation index serves as a theoretically based metric to assess possible changes in the statistics of tropical cyclones to combined changes in vertical wind shear, midlevel entropy deficit, and potential intensity in climate models. Model output from eight Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 models is used to calculate the ventilation index. The ventilation index and its relationship to tropical cyclone activity between two 20 year periods are compared: the historical experiment from 1981 to 2000 and the RCP8.5 experiment from 2081 to 2100. The general tendency is for an increase in the seasonal ventilation index in the majority of the tropical cyclone basins, with exception of the North Indian basin. All the models project an increase in the midlevel entropy deficit in the tropics, although the effects of this increase on the ventilation index itself are tempered by a compensating increase in the potential intensity and a decrease in the vertical wind shear in most tropical cyclone basins. The nonlinear combination of the terms in the ventilation index results in large regional and intermodel variability. Basin changes in the ventilation index are well correlated with changes in the frequency of tropical cyclone formation and rapid intensification in the climate models. However, there is large uncertainty in the projections of the ventilation index and the corresponding effects on changes in the statistics of tropical cyclone activity

Designing the climate observing system of the future

© The Author(s), 2018. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Earth's Future 6 (2018): 80–102, doi:10.1002/2017EF000627.Climate observations are needed to address a large range of important societal issues including sea level rise, droughts, floods, extreme heat events, food security, and freshwater availability in the coming decades. Past, targeted investments in specific climate questions have resulted in tremendous improvements in issues important to human health, security, and infrastructure. However, the current climate observing system was not planned in a comprehensive, focused manner required to adequately address the full range of climate needs. A potential approach to planning the observing system of the future is presented in this article. First, this article proposes that priority be given to the most critical needs as identified within the World Climate Research Program as Grand Challenges. These currently include seven important topics: melting ice and global consequences; clouds, circulation and climate sensitivity; carbon feedbacks in the climate system; understanding and predicting weather and climate extremes; water for the food baskets of the world; regional sea-level change and coastal impacts; and near-term climate prediction. For each Grand Challenge, observations are needed for long-term monitoring, process studies and forecasting capabilities. Second, objective evaluations of proposed observing systems, including satellites, ground-based and in situ observations as well as potentially new, unidentified observational approaches, can quantify the ability to address these climate priorities. And third, investments in effective climate observations will be economically important as they will offer a magnified return on investment that justifies a far greater development of observations to serve society's needs

State of the climate in 2018

In 2018, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth’s atmosphere—carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—continued their increase. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth’s surface was 407.4 ± 0.1 ppm, the highest in the modern instrumental record and in ice core records dating back 800 000 years. Combined, greenhouse gases and several halogenated gases contribute just over 3 W m−2 to radiative forcing and represent a nearly 43% increase since 1990. Carbon dioxide is responsible for about 65% of this radiative forcing. With a weak La Niña in early 2018 transitioning to a weak El Niño by the year’s end, the global surface (land and ocean) temperature was the fourth highest on record, with only 2015 through 2017 being warmer. Several European countries reported record high annual temperatures. There were also more high, and fewer low, temperature extremes than in nearly all of the 68-year extremes record. Madagascar recorded a record daily temperature of 40.5°C in Morondava in March, while South Korea set its record high of 41.0°C in August in Hongcheon. Nawabshah, Pakistan, recorded its highest temperature of 50.2°C, which may be a new daily world record for April. Globally, the annual lower troposphere temperature was third to seventh highest, depending on the dataset analyzed. The lower stratospheric temperature was approximately fifth lowest. The 2018 Arctic land surface temperature was 1.2°C above the 1981–2010 average, tying for third highest in the 118-year record, following 2016 and 2017. June’s Arctic snow cover extent was almost half of what it was 35 years ago. Across Greenland, however, regional summer temperatures were generally below or near average. Additionally, a satellite survey of 47 glaciers in Greenland indicated a net increase in area for the first time since records began in 1999. Increasing permafrost temperatures were reported at most observation sites in the Arctic, with the overall increase of 0.1°–0.2°C between 2017 and 2018 being comparable to the highest rate of warming ever observed in the region. On 17 March, Arctic sea ice extent marked the second smallest annual maximum in the 38-year record, larger than only 2017. The minimum extent in 2018 was reached on 19 September and again on 23 September, tying 2008 and 2010 for the sixth lowest extent on record. The 23 September date tied 1997 as the latest sea ice minimum date on record. First-year ice now dominates the ice cover, comprising 77% of the March 2018 ice pack compared to 55% during the 1980s. Because thinner, younger ice is more vulnerable to melting out in summer, this shift in sea ice age has contributed to the decreasing trend in minimum ice extent. Regionally, Bering Sea ice extent was at record lows for almost the entire 2017/18 ice season. For the Antarctic continent as a whole, 2018 was warmer than average. On the highest points of the Antarctic Plateau, the automatic weather station Relay (74°S) broke or tied six monthly temperature records throughout the year, with August breaking its record by nearly 8°C. However, cool conditions in the western Bellingshausen Sea and Amundsen Sea sector contributed to a low melt season overall for 2017/18. High SSTs contributed to low summer sea ice extent in the Ross and Weddell Seas in 2018, underpinning the second lowest Antarctic summer minimum sea ice extent on record. Despite conducive conditions for its formation, the ozone hole at its maximum extent in September was near the 2000–18 mean, likely due to an ongoing slow decline in stratospheric chlorine monoxide concentration. Across the oceans, globally averaged SST decreased slightly since the record El Niño year of 2016 but was still far above the climatological mean. On average, SST is increasing at a rate of 0.10° ± 0.01°C decade−1 since 1950. The warming appeared largest in the tropical Indian Ocean and smallest in the North Pacific. The deeper ocean continues to warm year after year. For the seventh consecutive year, global annual mean sea level became the highest in the 26-year record, rising to 81 mm above the 1993 average. As anticipated in a warming climate, the hydrological cycle over the ocean is accelerating: dry regions are becoming drier and wet regions rainier. Closer to the equator, 95 named tropical storms were observed during 2018, well above the 1981–2010 average of 82. Eleven tropical cyclones reached Saffir–Simpson scale Category 5 intensity. North Atlantic Major Hurricane Michael’s landfall intensity of 140 kt was the fourth strongest for any continental U.S. hurricane landfall in the 168-year record. Michael caused more than 30 fatalities and $25 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages. In the western North Pacific, Super Typhoon Mangkhut led to 160 fatalities and$6 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages across the Philippines, Hong Kong, Macau, mainland China, Guam, and the Northern Mariana Islands. Tropical Storm Son-Tinh was responsible for 170 fatalities in Vietnam and Laos. Nearly all the islands of Micronesia experienced at least moderate impacts from various tropical cyclones. Across land, many areas around the globe received copious precipitation, notable at different time scales. Rodrigues and Réunion Island near southern Africa each reported their third wettest year on record. In Hawaii, 1262 mm precipitation at Waipā Gardens (Kauai) on 14–15 April set a new U.S. record for 24-h precipitation. In Brazil, the city of Belo Horizonte received nearly 75 mm of rain in just 20 minutes, nearly half its monthly average. Globally, fire activity during 2018 was the lowest since the start of the record in 1997, with a combined burned area of about 500 million hectares. This reinforced the long-term downward trend in fire emissions driven by changes in land use in frequently burning savannas. However, wildfires burned 3.5 million hectares across the United States, well above the 2000–10 average of 2.7 million hectares. Combined, U.S. wildfire damages for the 2017 and 2018 wildfire seasons exceeded $40 billion (U.S. dollars)

Satellite Measurement of Upper Tropospheric Water Vapor: Development and Applications and Applications for the ARM Program

Upper tropospheric humidity (UTH) measurements from the 6.7 micron channel on GOES (8, 9, 12) and GMS-5 satellites were employed to develop a near real-time UTH product that is now available from the ARM External Data Center (XDC). The UTH product is available in either gridded format (2.0 x 2.0 lat-lon resolution), full-disk pixel resolution, or individual pixel resolution for both the SGP and TWP sites. This product provides the basis for the instrument intercomparison and validation activities (Section 0.2), diurnal analysis and model evaluation (0.3), and cloud lifecycle studies (0.5); and is also an important component of the research proposed here. Full details regarding the retrieval algorithm for the ARM sites can be found in Soden et al. (2004a) and references therein

Water-vapor observations

IntroductionWater vapor is a key climate variable, serving to link a variety of complex and poorly understood processes. Although comprising less than 1% of the atmospheric mass, water vapor is the dominant gaseous absorber of thermal radiation. The disproportional importance of water vapor stems from the fact that it is the only atmospheric constituent to possess a permanent dipole moment. This feature, combined with the asymmetrical arrangement of mass in the water-vapor molecule, leads to a rich and complex distribution of absorption lines through the electromagnetic spectrum. Radiative absorption by water vapor not only plays a key role in determining the atmosphere's “greenhouse effect” but, because the concentration of water vapor depends strongly on the surface temperature, it also comprises the largest known feedback mechanism for amplifying global warming (ICCP, 1990). Current estimates are that radiative feedback by water vapor increases the climatic sensitivity to carbon dioxide by roughly a factor of two when considered in isolation from other feedbacks, and by as much as a factor of three or more when the interactions with other feedbacks are considered. In addition to its radiative effects, the strong dipole moment of water vapor is also responsible for the large latent heat associated with its phase transitions which, in turn, provides much of the energy for driving the atmosphere's largescale circulation.The fundamental importance of water vapor in Earth's climate underscores the need for an accurate understanding of its distribution and variation