Heart failure and major haemorrhage in people with atrial fibrillation

Background: Heart failure (HF) is not included in atrial fibrillation (AF) bleeding risk prediction scores, reflecting uncertainty regarding its importance as a risk factor for major haemorrhage. We aimed to report the relative risk of first major haemorrhage in people with HF and AF compared with people with AF without HF (‘AF only’). Methods: English primary care cohort study of 2 178 162 people aged ≥45 years in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink from January 2000 to December 2018, linked to secondary care and mortality databases. We used traditional survival analysis and competing risks methods, accounting for all-cause mortality and anticoagulation. Results: Over 7.56 years median follow-up, 60 270 people were diagnosed with HF and AF of whom 4996 (8.3%) had a major haemorrhage and 36 170 died (60.0%), compared with 8256 (6.4%) and 34 375 (27.2%), respectively, among 126 251 people with AF only. Less than half those with AF were prescribed an anticoagulant (45.6% from 2014 onwards), although 75.7% were prescribed an antiplatelet or anticoagulant. In a fully adjusted Cox model, the HR for major haemorrhage was higher among people with HF and AF (2.52, 95% CI 2.44 to 2.61) than AF only (1.87, 95% CI 1.82 to 1.92), even in a subgroup analysis of people prescribed anticoagulation. However, in a Fine and Gray competing risk model, the HR of major haemorrhage was similar for people with AF only (1.82, 95% CI 1.77 to 1.87) or HF and AF (1.71, 95% CI 1.66 to 1.78). Conclusions: People with HF and AF are at increased risk of major haemorrhage compared with those with AF only and current prediction scores may underestimate the risk of haemorrhage in HF and AF. However, people with HF and AF are more likely to die than have a major haemorrhage and therefore an individual’s expected prognosis should be carefully considered when predicting future bleeding risk

Heart failure and major haemorrhage in people with atrial fibrillation

Background: Heart failure (HF) is not included in atrial fibrillation (AF) bleeding risk prediction scores, reflecting uncertainty regarding its importance as a risk factor for major haemorrhage. We aimed to report the relative risk of first major haemorrhage in people with HF and AF compared with people with AF without HF (‘AF only’). Methods: English primary care cohort study of 2 178 162 people aged ≥45 years in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink from January 2000 to December 2018, linked to secondary care and mortality databases. We used traditional survival analysis and competing risks methods, accounting for all-cause mortality and anticoagulation. Results: Over 7.56 years median follow-up, 60 270 people were diagnosed with HF and AF of whom 4996 (8.3%) had a major haemorrhage and 36 170 died (60.0%), compared with 8256 (6.4%) and 34 375 (27.2%), respectively, among 126 251 people with AF only. Less than half those with AF were prescribed an anticoagulant (45.6% from 2014 onwards), although 75.7% were prescribed an antiplatelet or anticoagulant. In a fully adjusted Cox model, the HR for major haemorrhage was higher among people with HF and AF (2.52, 95% CI 2.44 to 2.61) than AF only (1.87, 95% CI 1.82 to 1.92), even in a subgroup analysis of people prescribed anticoagulation. However, in a Fine and Gray competing risk model, the HR of major haemorrhage was similar for people with AF only (1.82, 95% CI 1.77 to 1.87) or HF and AF (1.71, 95% CI 1.66 to 1.78). Conclusions: People with HF and AF are at increased risk of major haemorrhage compared with those with AF only and current prediction scores may underestimate the risk of haemorrhage in HF and AF. However, people with HF and AF are more likely to die than have a major haemorrhage and therefore an individual’s expected prognosis should be carefully considered when predicting future bleeding risk

An internet-based intervention with brief nurse support to manage obesity in primary care (POWeR+): a pragmatic, parallel-group, randomised controlled trial

Background The obesity epidemic has major public health consequences. Expert dietetic and behavioural counselling with intensive follow-up is effective, but resource requirements severely restrict widespread implementation in primary care, where most patients are managed. We aimed to estimate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of an internet-based behavioural intervention (POWeR+) combined with brief practice nurse support in primary care. Methods We did this pragmatic, parallel-group, randomised controlled trial at 56 primary care practices in central and south England. Eligible adults aged 18 years or older with a BMI of 30 kg/m2 or more (or ≥28 kg/m2 with hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia, or diabetes) registered online with POWeR+—a 24 session, web-based, weight management intervention lasting 6 months. After registration, the website automatically randomly assigned patients (1:1:1), via computer-generated random numbers, to receive evidence-based dietetic advice to swap foods for similar, but healthier, choices and increase fruit and vegetable intake, in addition to 6 monthly nurse follow-up (control group); web-based intervention and face-to-face nurse support (POWeR+Face-to-face [POWeR+F]; up to seven nurse contacts over 6 months); or web-based intervention and remote nurse support (POWeR+Remote [POWeR+R]; up to five emails or brief phone calls over 6 months). Participants and investigators were masked to group allocation at the point of randomisation; masking of participants was not possible after randomisation. The primary outcome was weight loss averaged over 12 months. We did a secondary analysis of weight to measure maintenance of 5% weight loss at months 6 and 12. We modelled the cost-effectiveness of each intervention. We did analysis by intention to treat, with multiple imputation for missing data. This trial is registered as an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial, number ISRCTN21244703. Findings Between Jan 30, 2013, and March 20, 2014, 818 participants were randomly assigned to the control group (n=279), the POWeR+F group (n=269), or the POWeR+R group (n=270). Weight loss averaged over 12 months was recorded in 666 (81%) participants. The control group lost almost 3 kg over 12 months (crude mean weight: baseline 104·38 kg [SD 21·11; n=279], 6 months 101·91 kg [19·35; n=136], 12 months 101·74 kg [19·57; n=227]). The primary imputed analysis showed that compared with the control group, patients in the POWeR+F group achieved an additional weight reduction of 1·5 kg (95% CI 0·6–2·4; p=0·001) averaged over 12 months, and patients in the POWeR+R group achieved an additional 1·3 kg (0·34–2·2; p=0·007). 21% of patients in the control group had maintained a clinically important 5% weight reduction at month 12, compared with 29% of patients in the POWeR+F group (risk ratio 1·56, 0·96–2·51; p=0·070) and 32% of patients in the POWeR+R group (1·82, 1·31–2·74; p=0·004). The incremental overall cost to the health service per kg weight lost with the POWeR+ interventions versus the control strategy was £18 (95% CI −129 to 195) for POWeR+F and –£25 (−268 to 157) for POWeR+R; the probability of being cost-effective at a threshold of £100 per kg lost was 88% and 98%, respectively. No adverse events were reported. Interpretation Weight loss can be maintained in some individuals by use of novel written material with occasional brief nurse follow-up. However, more people can maintain clinically important weight reductions with a web-based behavioural program and brief remote follow-up, with no increase in health service costs. Future research should assess the extent to which clinically important weight loss can be maintained beyond 1 year

Complete analysis of the B-cell response to a protein antigen, from in vivo germinal centre formation to 3-D modelling of affinity maturation

Somatic hypermutation of immunoglobulin variable region genes occurs within germinal centres (GCs) and is the process responsible for affinity maturation of antibodies during an immune response. Previous studies have focused almost exclusively on the immune response to haptens, which may be unrepresentative of epitopes on protein antigens. In this study, we have exploited a model system that uses transgenic B and CD4<sup>+</sup> T cells specific for hen egg lysozyme (HEL) and a chicken ovalbumin peptide, respectively, to investigate a tightly synchronized immune response to protein antigens of widely differing affinities, thus allowing us to track many facets of the development of an antibody response at the antigen-specific B cell level in an integrated system <i>in</i> <i>vivo</i>. Somatic hypermutation of immunoglobulin variable genes was analysed in clones of transgenic B cells proliferating in individual GCs in response to HEL or the cross-reactive low-affinity antigen, duck egg lysozyme (DEL). Molecular modelling of the antibody–antigen interface demonstrates that recurring mutations in the antigen-binding site, selected in GCs, enhance interactions of the antibody with DEL. The effects of these mutations on affinity maturation are demonstrated by a shift of transgenic serum antibodies towards higher affinity for DEL in DEL-cOVA immunized mice. The results show that B cells with high affinity antigen receptors can revise their specificity by somatic hypermutation and antigen selection in response to a low-affinity, cross-reactive antigen. These observations shed further light on the nature of the immune response to pathogens and autoimmunity and demonstrate the utility of this novel model for studies of the mechanisms of somatic hypermutation

Randomised controlled feasibility trial of a web-based weight management intervention with nurse support for obese patients in primary care

<b>Background</b><p></p> There is a need for cost-effective weight management interventions that primary care can deliver to reduce the morbidity caused by obesity. Automated web-based interventions might provide a solution, but evidence suggests that they may be ineffective without additional human support. The main aim of this study was to carry out a feasibility trial of a web-based weight management intervention in primary care, comparing different levels of nurse support, to determine the optimal combination of web-based and personal support to be tested in a full trial.<p></p> <b>Methods</b><p></p> This was an individually randomised four arm parallel non-blinded trial, recruiting obese patients in primary care. Following online registration, patients were randomly allocated by the automated intervention to either usual care, the web-based intervention only, or the web-based intervention with either basic nurse support (3 sessions in 3 months) or regular nurse support (7 sessions in 6 months). The main outcome measure (intended as the primary outcome for the main trial) was weight loss in kg at 12 months. As this was a feasibility trial no statistical analyses were carried out, but we present means, confidence intervals and effect sizes for weight loss in each group, uptake and retention, and completion of intervention components and outcome measures.<p></p> <b>Results</b><p></p> All randomised patients were included in the weight loss analyses (using Last Observation Carried Forward). At 12 months mean weight loss was: usual care group (n = 43) 2.44 kg; web-based only group (n = 45) 2.30 kg; basic nurse support group (n = 44) 4.31 kg; regular nurse support group (n = 47) 2.50 kg. Intervention effect sizes compared with usual care were: d = 0.01 web-based; d = 0.34 basic nurse support; d = 0.02 regular nurse support. Two practices deviated from protocol by providing considerable weight management support to their usual care patients.<p></p> <b>Conclusions</b><p></p> This study demonstrated the feasibility of delivering a web-based weight management intervention supported by practice nurses in primary care, and suggests that the combination of the web-based intervention with basic nurse support could provide an effective solution to weight management support in a primary care context

A Blast Wave from the 1843 Eruption of Eta Carinae

Very massive stars shed much of their mass in violent precursor eruptions as luminous blue variables (LBVs) before reaching their most likely end as supernovae, but the cause of LBV eruptions is unknown. The 19th century eruption of Eta Carinae, the prototype of these events, ejected about 12 solar masses at speeds of 650 km/s, with a kinetic energy of almost 10^50 ergs. Some faster material with speeds up to 1000-2000 km/s had previously been reported but its full distribution was unknown. Here I report observations of much faster material with speeds up to 3500-6000 km/s, reaching farther from the star than the fastest material in earlier reports. This fast material roughly doubles the kinetic energy of the 19th century event, and suggests that it released a blast wave now propagating ahead of the massive ejecta. Thus, Eta Car's outer shell now mimics a low-energy supernova remnant. The eruption has usually been discussed in terms of an extreme wind driven by the star's luminosity, but fast material reported here suggests that it was powered by a deep-seated explosion rivalling a supernova, perhaps triggered by the pulsational pair instability. This may alter interpretations of similar events seen in other galaxies.Comment: 10 pages, 3 color figs, supplementary information. Accepted by Natur

The ACTIVE cognitive training trial and predicted medical expenditures

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Health care expenditures for older adults are disproportionately high and increasing at both the individual and population levels. We evaluated the effects of the three cognitive training interventions (memory, reasoning, or speed of processing) in the ACTIVE study on changes in predicted medical care expenditures.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>ACTIVE was a multisite randomized controlled trial of older adults (≥ 65). Five-year follow-up data were available for 1,804 of the 2,802 participants. Propensity score weighting was used to adjust for potential attrition bias. Changes in predicted annual<b/>medical expenditures were calculated at the first and fifth annual follow-up assessments using a new method for translating functional status scores. Multiple linear regression methods were used in this cost-offset analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>At one and five years post-training, annual predicted expenditures declined<b/>by $223 (p = .024) and$128 (p = .309), respectively, in the speed of processing treatment group, but there were no statistically significant changes in the memory or reasoning treatment groups compared to the no-contact control group at either period. Statistical adjustment for age, race, education, MMSE scores, ADL and IADL performance scores, EPT scores, chronic condition counts, and the SF-36 PCS and MCS scores at baseline did not alter the one-year ($244; p = .012) or five-year ($143; p = .250) expenditure declines in the speed of processing treatment group.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The speed of processing intervention significantly reduced subsequent annual predicted medical care expenditures at the one-year post-baseline comparison, but annual savings were no longer statistically significant at the five-year post-baseline comparison.</p

Mass extinctions and supernova explosions

A nearby supernova (SN) explosion could have negatively influenced life on Earth, maybe even been responsible for mass extinctions. Mass extinction poses a significant extinction of numerous species on Earth, as recorded in the paleontologic, paleoclimatic, and geological record of our planet. Depending on the distance between the Sun and the SN, different types of threats have to be considered, such as ozone depletion on Earth, causing increased exposure to the Sun's ultraviolet radiation, or the direct exposure of lethal x-rays. Another indirect effect is cloud formation, induced by cosmic rays in the atmosphere which result in a drop in the Earth's temperature, causing major glaciations of the Earth. The discovery of highly intensive gamma ray bursts (GRBs), which could be connected to SNe, initiated further discussions on possible life-threatening events in Earth's history. The probability that GRBs hit the Earth is very low. Nevertheless, a past interaction of Earth with GRBs and/or SNe cannot be excluded and might even have been responsible for past extinction events.Comment: Chapter for forthcoming book: Handbook of Supernovae, P. Murdin and A. Alsabeti (eds.), Springer International Publishing (in press

Gaming and gaming disorder: a mediation model gender, salience, age of gaming onset, and time spent gaming

Females in empirically based peer-reviewed studies of Internet gaming disorder (IGD) are underrepresented, despite evidence that there are only minor gender disparities present in online gaming. Moreover, few studies have specifically evaluated adult gender effects, within a formal diagnosis of IGD, and behavioral motivation, as defined by the reinforcing behavioral function. A mediation analysis evaluated the relationship between gender, behavioral motivation, and the diagnostic features in online gaming among adults to understand the impact of motivation on videogame playing. This study interviewed 304 adults (aged >18 years) in which 178 identified as female. Participants completed the Video Game Functional Assessment-Revised (VGFA-R) and the 20-item Internet Gaming Disorder Test (IGDT-20) through an online survey. Results showed that number of hours played per week, and subfactors of the VGFA-R differed between gender, indicating that the function and the maintaining of videogame play are essential in evaluating videogame addiction. These findings support and extend the literature's limited findings concerning gender and online gaming