Forecasting Equicorrelation

We study the out-of-sample forecasting performance of several time-series models of equicorrelation, which is the average pairwise correlation between a number of assets. Building on the existing Dynamic Conditional Correlation and Linear Dynamic Equicorrelation models, we propose a model that uses proxies for equicorrelation based on high-frequency intraday data, and the level of equicorrelation implied by options prices. Using state-of-the-art statistical evaluation technology, we find that the use of both realized and implied equicorrelations outperform models that use daily data alone. However, the out-of-sample forecasting benefits of implied equicorrelation disappear when used in conjunction with the realized measures.Equicorrelation, Implied Correlation, Multivariate GARCH, DCC

Perceived goal instrumentality is associated with forgiveness: A test of the valuable relationships hypothesis

Three autobiographical studies tested the valuable relationships hypothesis of forgiveness. Although previous studies revealed that relationship value predicts interpersonal forgiveness, the measure of relationship value may be conflated with affective assessments of the relationship with the transgressor, which might have caused a criterion contamination problem. Therefore, we assessed the goal-related instrumentality of the transgressor (i.e., how useful the transgressor is for helping the victim to achieve his/her goals in fitness-relevant domains). Three studies, one involving a Japanese student sample (Study 1), a second involving Japanese community sample (Study 2), and a third involving U.S. community sample (Study 3), convergently showed that perceived goal instrumentality, as well as a latent relationship value variable estimated from multiple measures of relationship value, are associated with forgiveness. Moreover, this association could be explained in part by the intermediate association of perceived goal instrumentality with empathy both in Japan and the U.S

Opportunities and Challenges Around a Tool for Social and Public Web Activity Tracking

While the web contains many social websites, people are generally left in the dark about the activities of other people traversing the web as a whole. In this paper, we explore the potential benefits and privacy considerations around generating a real-time, publicly accessible stream of web activity where users can publish chosen parts of their web browsing data. Taking inspiration from social media systems, we describe individual benefits that can be unlocked by such sharing and that may incentivize users to publish aspects of their browsing. We ask whether and how these benefits outweigh potential costs in lost privacy. We conduct our study of public web activity sharing through scenario-based interviews and a field deployment of a tool for web activity sharing

Performance of the Components of the XJ34-WE-32 Turbojet Engine over a Range of Engine and Flight Conditions

Performance of the compressor, combustor, and turbine operating as integral parts of the XJ34-WE-32 turbojet engine was determined in the Lewis altitude wind tunnel over a range of altitudes from 5000 to 55,000 feet and flight Mach numbers from 0.28 to 1.05. Data were obtained for each of four exhaust-nozzle areas and are presented in graphical and tabular form

Forgiveness takes place on an attitudinal continuum from hostility to friendliness: Toward a closer union of forgiveness theory and measurement.

Researchers commonly conceptualize forgiveness as a rich complex of psychological changes involving attitudes, emotions, and behaviors. Psychometric work with the measures developed to capture this conceptual richness, however, often points to a simpler picture of the psychological dimensions in which forgiveness takes place. In an effort to better unite forgiveness theory and measurement, we evaluate several psychometric models for common measures of forgiveness. In doing so, we study people from the United States and Japan to understand forgiveness in both nonclose and close relationships. In addition, we assess the predictive utility of these models for several behavioral outcomes that traditionally have been linked to forgiveness motives. Finally, we use the methods of item response theory, which place person abilities and item responses on the same metric and, thus, help us draw psychological inferences from the ordering of item difficulties. Our results highlight models based on correlated factors models and bifactor (S-1) models. The bifactor (S-1) model evinced particular utility: Its general factor consistently predicts variation in relevant criterion measures, including 4 different experimental economic games (when played with a transgressor), and also suffuses a second self-report measure of forgiveness. Moreover, the general factor of the bifactor (S-1) model identifies a single psychological dimension that runs from hostility to friendliness while also pointing to other sources of variance that may be conceived of as method factors. Taken together, these results suggest that forgiveness can be usefully conceptualized as prosocial change along a single attitudinal continuum that ranges from hostility to friendliness. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved)

Studies of the large-scale structure in adiabatic and moderately-wall-heated subsonic boundary layers

Simultaneous velocity-optical measurements in subsonic boundary layers were conducted in order to investigate the relationship between the instantaneous 2-D wavefronts, measured by different optical sensors, the Malley probe and 2-D Shack-Hartmann sensors, and the instantaneous large-scale structure along a wall-normal plane, using PIV in both incompressible and compressible subsonic boundary layers. These systematic studies of the instantaneous relation between the large-scale boundary layer structure and its aero-optical signature provide additional understanding of the instantaneous dynamics of the large-scale structure at subsonic and transonic speeds

Exploring newly qualified doctors' workplace stressors:an interview study from Australia

Purpose Postgraduate year 1 (PGY1) doctors suffer from high levels of psychological distress, yet the contributory factors are poorly understood. This study used an existing model of workplace stress to explore the elements most pertinent to PGY1 doctors. In turn, the data were used to amend and refine the conceptual model to better reflect the unique experiences of PGY1 doctors. Method Focus groups were undertaken with PGY1 doctors working at four different health services in Victoria, Australia. Transcripts were coded using Michie's model of workplace stress as the initial coding template. Remaining text was coded inductively and the supplementary codes were used to modify and amplify Michie's framework. Results There were 37 participants in total. Key themes included stressors intrinsic to the job, such as work overload and long hours, as well as those related to the context of work such as lack of role clarity and relationships with colleagues. The main modification to Michie's framework was the addition of the theme of uncertainty. This concept related to most of the pre-existing themes in complex ways, culminating in an overall sense of anxiety. Conclusions Michie's model of workplace stress can be effectively used to explore the stressors experienced by PGY1 doctors. Pervasive uncertainty may help to explain the high levels of psychological morbidity in this group. While some uncertainty will always remain, the medical education community must seek ways to improve role clarity and promote mutual respect.</p