Modelling monsoons: understanding and predicting current and future behaviour

The global monsoon system is so varied and complex that understanding and predicting its diverse behaviour remains a challenge that will occupy modellers for many years to come. Despite the difficult task ahead, an improved monsoon modelling capability has been realized through the inclusion of more detailed physics of the climate system and higher resolution in our numerical models. Perhaps the most crucial improvement to date has been the development of coupled ocean-atmosphere models. From subseasonal to interdecadal time scales, only through the inclusion of air-sea interaction can the proper phasing and teleconnections of convection be attained with respect to sea surface temperature variations. Even then, the response to slow variations in remote forcings (e.g., El Niño—Southern Oscillation) does not result in a robust solution, as there are a host of competing modes of variability that must be represented, including those that appear to be chaotic. Understanding the links between monsoons and land surface processes is not as mature as that explored regarding air-sea interactions. A land surface forcing signal appears to dominate the onset of wet season rainfall over the North American monsoon region, though the relative role of ocean versus land forcing remains a topic of investigation in all the monsoon systems. Also, improved forecasts have been made during periods in which additional sounding observations are available for data assimilation. Thus, there is untapped predictability that can only be attained through the development of a more comprehensive observing system for all monsoon regions. Additionally, improved parameterizations - for example, of convection, cloud, radiation, and boundary layer schemes as well as land surface processes - are essential to realize the full potential of monsoon predictability. A more comprehensive assessment is needed of the impact of black carbon aerosols, which may modulate that of other anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Dynamical considerations require ever increased horizontal resolution (probably to 0.5 degree or higher) in order to resolve many monsoon features including, but not limited to, the Mei-Yu/Baiu sudden onset and withdrawal, low-level jet orientation and variability, and orographic forced rainfall. Under anthropogenic climate change many competing factors complicate making robust projections of monsoon changes. Absent aerosol effects, increased land-sea temperature contrast suggests strengthened monsoon circulation due to climate change. However, increased aerosol emissions will reflect more solar radiation back to space, which may temper or even reduce the strength of monsoon circulations compared to the present day. Precipitation may behave independently from the circulation under warming conditions in which an increased atmospheric moisture loading, based purely on thermodynamic considerations, could result in increased monsoon rainfall under climate change. The challenge to improve model parameterizations and include more complex processes and feedbacks pushes computing resources to their limit, thus requiring continuous upgrades of computational infrastructure to ensure progress in understanding and predicting current and future behaviour of monsoons

The von Hippel-Lindau Chuvash mutation in mice alters cardiac substrate and high energy phosphate metabolism

Hypoxia-inducible factor (HIF) appears to function as a global master regulator of cellular and systemic responses to hypoxia. HIF-pathway manipulation is of therapeutic interest, however global, systemic upregulation of HIF may have as yet unknown effects on multiple processes. We utilized a mouse model of Chuvash polycythemia (CP), a rare genetic disorder which modestly increases expression of HIF target genes in normoxia, to understand what these effects might be within the heart. An integrated in and ex vivo approach was employed. In comparison to wild-type controls, CP mice had evidence (using in vivo MRI) of pulmonary hypertension, right ventricular hypertrophy, and increased left ventricular ejection fraction. Glycolytic flux (measured using 3H glucose) in the isolated, contracting, perfused CP heart was 1.8-fold higher. Net lactate efflux was 1.5-fold higher. Furthermore, in vivo 13C magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) of hyperpolarized 13C1 pyruvate revealed a 2-fold increase in real-time flux through lactate dehydrogenase in the CP hearts, and a 1.6-fold increase through pyruvate dehydrogenase. 31P MRS of perfused CP hearts under increased workload (isoproterenol infusion) demonstrated increased depletion of phosphocreatine relative to ATP. Intriguingly, no changes in cardiac gene expression were detected. In summary, a modest systemic dysregulation of the HIF pathway resulted in clear alterations in cardiac metabolism and energetics. However, in contrast to studies generating high HIF levels within the heart, the CP mice showed neither the predicted changes in gene expression nor any degree of LV impairment. We conclude that the effects of manipulating HIF on the heart are dose-dependent. New and noteworthy This is the first integrative metabolic and functional study of the effects of modest HIF manipulation within the heart. Of particular note, the combination (and correlation) of perfused heart metabolic flux measurements with the new technique of real-time in vivo MR spectroscopy using hyperpolarized pyruvate is a novel development

On the pivotal role of PPARa in adaptation of the heart to hypoxia and why fat in the diet increases hypoxic injury

The role of peroxisome proliferator activated alpha (PPARα) -mediated metabolic remodeling in cardiac adaptation to hypoxia has yet to be defined. Here, mice were housed in hypoxia for 3 weeks before in vivo contractile function was measured using cine magnetic resonance (MR) imaging. In isolated, perfused hearts, energetics were measured using 31P MR spectroscopy and glycolysis and fatty acid oxidation were measured using 3H labelling. Compared with normoxic, chow-fed control mouse heart, hypoxia decreased PPARα expression, fatty acid oxidation and mitochondrial UCP3 levels, while increasing glycolysis, all of which served to maintain normal ATP concentrations and thereby ejection fractions. A high-fat diet increased cardiac PPARα expression, fatty acid oxidation and UCP3 levels, with decreased glycolysis. Hypoxia was unable to alter the high PPARα expression or reverse the metabolic changes caused by the high fat diet, with the result that ATP concentrations and contractile function decreased significantly. The adaptive metabolic changes caused by hypoxia in control mouse hearts were found to have already occurred in PPARα-/- mouse hearts, and sustained function in hypoxia despite an inability for further metabolic remodelling. We conclude that decreased cardiac PPARα expression is essential for adaptive metabolic remodelling in hypoxia, but is prevented by dietary fat

The role of the hypoxia-inducible pathway in metabolism and cardiopulmonary physiology

The research in this thesis investigated the role of the hypoxia-inducible factor (HIF) family of transcription factors in metabolism and cardiopulmonary physiology. Specifically, the effects of HIF on ventilatory control, carotid body morphology, and cardiac metabolism and function were studied using a murine model of a genetic disorder of oxygen sensing known as Chuvash polycythaemia. HIF coordinates oxygen-regulated gene expression throughout all organ systems, thereby orchestrating cellular, tissue and systemic responses to hypoxia. HIF is primarily regulated by oxygen-dependent prolyl hydroxylase-domain enzymes (PHDs) that initiate its degradation via the von Hippel-Lindau protein (VHL). In Chuvash polycythaemia, a homozygous VHL mutation in humans causes generalised stabilisation of HIF in euoxia, resulting in profound changes in cardiopulmonary physiology, exercise and metabolism. The Chuvash mouse model provides an opportunity to further characterise the role of HIF in different organ systems. Chapter 2 of this thesis introduces the murine model, demonstrating an increase in haemoglobin and haematocrit in the Chuvash mice as well as a marked reduction in body weight. Chapter 3 describes the ventilatory and carotid body study. Chuvash mice were shown to have elevated baseline ventilation in euoxia and marked ventilatory sensitivity to hypoxia. These findings were accompanied by changes within the carotid body, including hyperplasia, hypertrophy and altered ultrastructure of the oxygen-sensing type I cells. Chapter 4 of this thesis describes the study into cardiac metabolism, energetics and function. Chuvash hearts were found to have increased glycolytic flux and lactate production (the latter both in and ex vivo), with altered myocardial energetics. Despite this, left ventricular function remained normal, although in vivo cine MRI revealed clear evidence of pulmonary hypertension and right ventricular hypertrophy. Overall, this thesis provides evidence that the PHD-VHL-HIF axis plays a major role in calibrating the hypoxic response in the principal organ systems responsible for oxygen uptake, delivery and utilisation.</p

Using idealized snow forcing to test teleconnections with the Indian summer monsoon in the Hadley Centre GCM

Anomalous heavy snow during winter or spring has long been regarded as a possible precursor of deficient Indian monsoon rainfall during the subsequent summer. However previous work in this field is inconclusive, in terms of the mechanism that communicates snow anomalies to the monsoon summer, and even the region from which snow has the most impact. In this study we explore these issues in coupled and atmosphere-only versions of the Hadley Centre model. A 1050-year control integration of the HadCM3 coupled model, which well represents the seasonal cycle of snow cover over the Eurasian continent, is analysed and shows evidence for weakened monsoons being preceded by strong snow forcing (in the absence of ENSO) over either the Himalaya/Tibetan Plateau or north/west Eurasia regions. However, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of springtime interannual variability in snow depth shows the leading mode to have opposite signs between these two regions, suggesting that competing mechanisms may be possible. To determine the dominant region, ensemble integrations are carried out using HadAM3, the atmospheric component of HadCM3, and a variety of anomalous snow forcing initial conditions obtained from the control integration of the coupled model. Forcings are applied during spring in separate experiments over the Himalaya/Tibetan Plateau and north/west Eurasia regions, in conjunction with climatological SSTs in order to avoid the direct effects of ENSO. With the aid of idealized forcing conditions in sensitivity tests, we demonstrate that forcing from the Himalaya region is dominant in this model via a Blanford-type mechanism involving reduced surface sensible heat and longwave fluxes, reduced heating of the troposphere over the Tibetan Plateau and consequently a reduced meridional tropospheric temperature gradient which weakens the monsoon during early summer. Snow albedo is shown to be key to the mechanism, explaining around 50% of the perturbation in sensible heating over the Tibetan Plateau, and accounting for the majority of cooling through the troposphere

The role of the hypoxia-inducible pathway in metabolism and cardiopulmonary physiology

The research in this thesis investigated the role of the hypoxia-inducible factor (HIF) family of transcription factors in metabolism and cardiopulmonary physiology. Specifically, the effects of HIF on ventilatory control, carotid body morphology, and cardiac metabolism and function were studied using a murine model of a genetic disorder of oxygen sensing known as Chuvash polycythaemia. HIF coordinates oxygen-regulated gene expression throughout all organ systems, thereby orchestrating cellular, tissue and systemic responses to hypoxia. HIF is primarily regulated by oxygen-dependent prolyl hydroxylase-domain enzymes (PHDs) that initiate its degradation via the von Hippel-Lindau protein (VHL). In Chuvash polycythaemia, a homozygous VHL mutation in humans causes generalised stabilisation of HIF in euoxia, resulting in profound changes in cardiopulmonary physiology, exercise and metabolism. The Chuvash mouse model provides an opportunity to further characterise the role of HIF in different organ systems. Chapter 2 of this thesis introduces the murine model, demonstrating an increase in haemoglobin and haematocrit in the Chuvash mice as well as a marked reduction in body weight. Chapter 3 describes the ventilatory and carotid body study. Chuvash mice were shown to have elevated baseline ventilation in euoxia and marked ventilatory sensitivity to hypoxia. These findings were accompanied by changes within the carotid body, including hyperplasia, hypertrophy and altered ultrastructure of the oxygen-sensing type I cells. Chapter 4 of this thesis describes the study into cardiac metabolism, energetics and function. Chuvash hearts were found to have increased glycolytic flux and lactate production (the latter both in and ex vivo), with altered myocardial energetics. Despite this, left ventricular function remained normal, although in vivo cine MRI revealed clear evidence of pulmonary hypertension and right ventricular hypertrophy. Overall, this thesis provides evidence that the PHD-VHL-HIF axis plays a major role in calibrating the hypoxic response in the principal organ systems responsible for oxygen uptake, delivery and utilisation.This thesis is not currently available in ORA

The role of atmosphere feedbacks during ENSO in the CMIP3 models

Several studies using ocean-atmosphere GCMs suggest that the atmospheric component plays a dominant role in the modelled ENSO. To help elucidate these findings, the two main atmosphere feedbacks relevant to ENSO, the Bjerknes positive feedback (µ) and the heat flux negative feedback (), are analysed here in 12 coupled GCMs. We find that the models generally underestimate both feedbacks, leading to an error compensation. The strength of is inversely related to the ENSO amplitude in the models and the latent heat and shortwave flux components of this feedback dominate. Furthermore, the shortwave component could help explain the model diversity in both overall and ENSO amplitude

Convectively coupled equatorial waves in high resolution Hadley centre climate models

Current global atmospheric models fail to simulate well organised tropical phenomena in which convection interacts with dynamics and physics. A new methodology to identify convectively coupled equatorial waves, developed by NCAS-Climate, has been applied to output from the two latest models of the Met Office/Hadley Centre which have fundamental differences in dynamical formulation. Variability, horizontal and vertical structures, and propagation characteristics of tropical convection and equatorial waves, along with their coupled behaviour in the models are examined and evaluated against a previous comprehensive study of observations. It is shown that, in general, the models perform well for equatorial waves coupled with off-equatorial convection. However they perform poorly for waves coupled with equatorial convection. The vertical structure of the simulated wave is not conducive to energy conversion/growth and does not support the correct physical-dynamical coupling that occurs in the real world. The following figure shows an example of the Kelvin wave coupled with equatorial convection. It shows that the models fail to simulate a key feature of convectively coupled Kelvin wave in observations, namely near surface anomalous equatorial zonal winds together with intensified equatorial convection and westerly winds in phase with the convection. The models are also not able to capture the observed vertical tilt structure and the vertical propagation of the Kelvin wave into the lower stratosphere as well as the secondary peak in the mid-troposphere, particularly in HadAM3. These results can be used to provide a test-bed for experimentation to improve the coupling of physics and dynamics in climate and weather models

Examining the interaction of growing crops with local climate using a coupled crop-climate model

This paper examines to what extent crops and their environment should be viewed as a coupled system. Crop impact assessments currently use climate model output offline to drive process-based crop models. However, in regions where local climate is sensitive to land surface conditions more consistent assessments may be produced with the crop model embedded within the land surface scheme of the climate model. Using a recently developed coupled crop–climate model, the sensitivity of local climate, in particular climate variability, to climatically forced variations in crop growth throughout the tropics is examined by comparing climates simulated with dynamic and prescribed seasonal growth of croplands. Interannual variations in land surface properties associated with variations in crop growth and development were found to have significant impacts on near-surface fluxes and climate; for example, growing season temperature variability was increased by up to 40% by the inclusion of dynamic crops. The impact was greatest in dry years where the response of crop growth to soil moisture deficits enhanced the associated warming via a reduction in evaporation. Parts of the Sahel, India, Brazil, and southern Africa were identified where local climate variability is sensitive to variations in crop growth, and where crop yield is sensitive to variations in surface temperature. Therefore, offline seasonal forecasting methodologies in these regions may underestimate crop yield variability. The inclusion of dynamic crops also altered the mean climate of the humid tropics, highlighting the importance of including dynamical vegetation within climate models