Statistics of extinction and survival in Lotka-Volterra systems

We analyze purely competitive many-species Lotka-Volterra systems with random interaction matrices, focusing the attention on statistical properties of their asymptotic states. Generic features of the evolution are outlined from a semiquantitative analysis of the phase-space structure, and extensive numerical simulations are performed to study the statistics of the extinctions. We find that the number of surviving species depends strongly on the statistical properties of the interaction matrix, and that the probability of survival is weakly correlated to specific initial conditions.Comment: Previous version had error in authors. 11 pages, including 5 figure

Unravelling the evolution of Africa's drainage basins through a widespread freshwater fish, the African sharptooth catfish Clarias gariepinus

Aim The formation history of Africa's current river basins remains largely unknown. In order to date changes in landscape and climate, we studied the biogeography of the African freshwater fish with the largest natural distribution. We also validated biogeographical units. Location Continental Africa. Taxon Clarias gariepinus sl. Methods We investigated mitochondrial cytb sequences of 443 individuals from 97 localities, using a haplotype network and a genetic landscape analysis. We inferred a dated phylogeny using maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference approaches and reconstructed ancestral areas with S-DEC and S-DIVA models. Microsatellite genotyping complemented the mitochondrial approach in the Congo basin, where the latter revealed complex patterns. Results Limited differentiation is found in northern and south-western Africa, and sharp genetic differentiation in the continent's east and centre. Populations with affinities to neighbouring basins occur at the edges of the Congo province. High diversity exists in the south of the Congo basin. The Zambezi province is partitioned into eastern, central and western sectors. In the east, specimens were related to those from the Congo. In the west, they were similar to Southern representatives. Phylogenetic inference placed the origin of C. gariepinus in the East Coast, with intraspecific diversification starting around the Great Lakes. These events occurred ca. 4.8-1.65 and 2.3-0.8 MYA respectively. Main conclusions Clades of C. gariepinus sl. show a clear geographical signature. The origin of C. gariepinus in the East Coast and diversification around the Great Lakes coincided with the periods of increased aridity. Low genetic differentiation in northern and southern Africa may result from connectivity during recent periods of higher rainfall. In contrast to other widespread African freshwater fish, colonization rather than extinction seemed to mediate distribution patterns. This can be explained by a high ecological tolerance. We highlight the species' suitability to study landscape and climate evolution at various scales.Peer reviewe

Geometry of Star-Forming Galaxies from SDSS, 3D-HST and CANDELS

We determine the intrinsic, 3-dimensional shape distribution of star-forming galaxies at 0<z<2.5, as inferred from their observed projected axis ratios. In the present-day universe star-forming galaxies of all masses 1e9 - 1e11 Msol are predominantly thin, nearly oblate disks, in line with previous studies. We now extend this to higher redshifts, and find that among massive galaxies (M* > 1e10 Msol) disks are the most common geometric shape at all z < 2. Lower-mass galaxies at z>1 possess a broad range of geometric shapes: the fraction of elongated (prolate) galaxies increases toward higher redshifts and lower masses. Galaxies with stellar mass 1e9 Msol (1e10 Msol) are a mix of roughly equal numbers of elongated and disk galaxies at z~1 (z~2). This suggests that galaxies in this mass range do not yet have disks that are sustained over many orbital periods, implying that galaxies with present-day stellar mass comparable to that of the Milky Way typically first formed such sustained stellar disks at redshift z~1.5-2. Combined with constraints on the evolution of the star formation rate density and the distribution of star formation over galaxies with different masses, our findings imply that, averaged over cosmic time, the majority of stars formed in disks.Comment: Published in ApJ Letter

Stellar Kinematics of z ~ 2 Galaxies and the Inside-out Growth of Quiescent Galaxies

Using stellar kinematics measurements, we investigate the growth of massive, quiescent galaxies from z ~{} 2 to today. We present X-Shooter spectra from the UV to NIR and dynamical mass measurements of five quiescent massive ({gt}10$^{11}$ M $_{⊙}$) galaxies at z ~{} 2. This triples the sample of z {gt} 1.5 galaxies with well-constrained ({$delta$}{$σ$} {lt} 100 km s$^{-1}$) velocity dispersion measurements. From spectral population synthesis modeling we find that these galaxies have stellar ages that range from 0.5 to 2 Gyr, with no signs of ongoing star formation. We measure velocity dispersions (290-450 km s$^{-1}$) from stellar absorption lines and find that they are 1.6-2.1 times higher than those of galaxies in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey at the same mass. Sizes are measured using GALFIT from Hubble Space Telescope Wide Field Camera 3 H $_{160}$ and UDS K-band images. The dynamical masses correspond well to the spectral energy distribution based stellar masses, with dynamical masses that are ~{}15% higher. We find that M $_{*}$/M $_{dyn}$ may decrease slightly with time, which could reflect the increase of the dark matter fraction within an increasing effective radius. We combine different stellar kinematic studies from the literature and examine the structural evolution from z ~{} 2 to z ~{} 0: we confirm that at fixed dynamical mass, the effective radius increases by a factor of ~{}2.8, and the velocity dispersion decreases by a factor of ~{}1.7. The mass density within one effective radius decreases by a factor of ~{}20, while within a fixed physical radius (1 kpc) it decreases only mildly (factor of ~{}2). When we allow for an evolving mass limit by selecting a population of galaxies at fixed number density, a stronger size growth with time is found (factor of ~{}4), velocity dispersion decreases by a factor of ~{}1.4, and interestingly, the mass density within 1 kpc is consistent with no evolution. This finding suggests that massive quiescent galaxies at z ~{} 2 grow inside out, consistent with the expectations from minor mergers

Stellar Kinematics of z ~ 2 Galaxies and the Inside-out Growth of Quiescent Galaxies

Using stellar kinematics measurements, we investigate the growth of massive, quiescent galaxies from z ~{} 2 to today. We present X-Shooter spectra from the UV to NIR and dynamical mass measurements of five quiescent massive ({gt}10$^{11}$ M $_{⊙}$) galaxies at z ~{} 2. This triples the sample of z {gt} 1.5 galaxies with well-constrained ({$delta$}{$σ$} {lt} 100 km s$^{-1}$) velocity dispersion measurements. From spectral population synthesis modeling we find that these galaxies have stellar ages that range from 0.5 to 2 Gyr, with no signs of ongoing star formation. We measure velocity dispersions (290-450 km s$^{-1}$) from stellar absorption lines and find that they are 1.6-2.1 times higher than those of galaxies in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey at the same mass. Sizes are measured using GALFIT from Hubble Space Telescope Wide Field Camera 3 H $_{160}$ and UDS K-band images. The dynamical masses correspond well to the spectral energy distribution based stellar masses, with dynamical masses that are ~{}15% higher. We find that M $_{*}$/M $_{dyn}$ may decrease slightly with time, which could reflect the increase of the dark matter fraction within an increasing effective radius. We combine different stellar kinematic studies from the literature and examine the structural evolution from z ~{} 2 to z ~{} 0: we confirm that at fixed dynamical mass, the effective radius increases by a factor of ~{}2.8, and the velocity dispersion decreases by a factor of ~{}1.7. The mass density within one effective radius decreases by a factor of ~{}20, while within a fixed physical radius (1 kpc) it decreases only mildly (factor of ~{}2). When we allow for an evolving mass limit by selecting a population of galaxies at fixed number density, a stronger size growth with time is found (factor of ~{}4), velocity dispersion decreases by a factor of ~{}1.4, and interestingly, the mass density within 1 kpc is consistent with no evolution. This finding suggests that massive quiescent galaxies at z ~{} 2 grow inside out, consistent with the expectations from minor mergers

Environmental niche patterns of native and non-native fishes within an invaded African river system

To test ecological niche theory, this study investigated the spatial patterns and the environmental niches of native and non-native fishes within the invaded Great Fish River system, South Africa. For the native fishes, there were contrasting environmental niche breadths that varied from being small to being large and overlapped for most species, except minnows that were restricted to headwater tributaries. In addition, there was high niche overlap in habitat association among fishes with similar distribution. It was therefore inferred that habitat filtering-driven spatial organization was important in explaining native species distribution patterns. In comparison, most non-native fishes were found to have broad environmental niches and these fishes showed high tolerance to environmental conditions, which generally supported the niche opportunity hypothesis. The proliferation of multiple non-native fishes in the mainstem section suggest that they form a functional assemblage that is probably facilitated by the anthropogenic modification of flow regimes through inter-basin water transfer. Based on the distribution patterns observed in the study, it was inferred that there was a likelihood of negative interactions between native and nonnative fishes. Such effects are likely to be exacerbated by altered flow regime that was likely to have negative implications for native ichthyofauna

Risk of sexual recidivism as a function of age and actuarial risk

The study of risk for sexual recidivism has undergone substantial development in recent years. The foundation for advances in this area has been the use of actuarial measures to identify subgroups of offenders with different observed rates of sexual re-offending over time. An unresolved issue within this research area has been the moderating function of age in the assessment of risk. The current study examined sexual re-offending as a function of age and actuarial risk in a large sample of sexual offenders released from prison between 1990 and 2004. There was an overall decrease in the rate of sexual re-offending over the age of 50. However, a small group of offenders from the higher actuarial risk categories of the older age groups continued to re-offend at higher rates than their lower-risk peers. <br /