The impact of social protection and poverty elimination on global tuberculosis incidence: a statistical modelling analysis of Sustainable Development Goal 1.

BACKGROUND: The End TB Strategy and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are intimately linked by their common targets and approaches. SDG 1 aims to end extreme poverty and expand social protection coverage by 2030. Achievement of SDG 1 is likely to affect the tuberculosis epidemic through a range of pathways. We estimate the reduction in global tuberculosis incidence that could be obtained by reaching SDG 1. METHODS: We developed a conceptual framework linking key indicators of SDG 1 progress to tuberculosis incidence via well described risk factor pathways and populated it with data from the SDG data repository and the WHO tuberculosis database for 192 countries. Correlations and mediation analyses informed the strength of the association between the SDG 1 subtargets and tuberculosis incidence, resulting in a simplified framework for modelling. The simplified framework linked key indicators for SDG 1 directly to tuberculosis incidence. We applied an exponential decay model based on linear associations between SDG 1 indicators and tuberculosis incidence to estimate tuberculosis incidence in 2035. FINDINGS: Ending extreme poverty resulted in a reduction in global incidence of tuberculosis of 33·4% (95% credible interval 15·5-44·5) by 2035 and expanding social protection coverage resulted in a reduction in incidence of 76·1% (45·2-89·9) by 2035; both pathways together resulted in a reduction in incidence of 84·3% (54·7-94·9). INTERPRETATION: Full achievement of SDG 1 could have a substantial effect on the global burden of tuberculosis. Cross-sectoral approaches that promote poverty reduction and social protection expansion will be crucial complements to health interventions, accelerating progress towards the End TB targets. FUNDING: World Health Organization

Cost-effectiveness and resource implications of aggressive action on tuberculosis in China, India, and South Africa: a combined analysis of nine models

Background The post-2015 End TB Strategy sets global targets of reducing tuberculosis incidence by 50% and mortality by 75% by 2025. We aimed to assess resource requirements and cost-effectiveness of strategies to achieve these targets in China, India, and South Africa. Methods We examined intervention scenarios developed in consultation with country stakeholders, which scaled up existing interventions to high but feasible coverage by 2025. Nine independent modelling groups collaborated to estimate policy outcomes, and we estimated the cost of each scenario by synthesising service use estimates, empirical cost data, and expert opinion on implementation strategies. We estimated health effects (ie, disability-adjusted life-years averted) and resource implications for 2016–35, including patient-incurred costs. To assess resource requirements and cost-effectiveness, we compared scenarios with a base case representing continued current practice. Findings Incremental tuberculosis service costs differed by scenario and country, and in some cases they more than doubled existing funding needs. In general, expansion of tuberculosis services substantially reduced patient-incurred costs and, in India and China, produced net cost savings for most interventions under a societal perspective. In all three countries, expansion of access to care produced substantial health gains. Compared with current practice and conventional cost-effectiveness thresholds, most intervention approaches seemed highly cost-effective. Interpretation Expansion of tuberculosis services seems cost-effective for high-burden countries and could generate substantial health and economic benefits for patients, although substantial new funding would be required. Further work to determine the optimal intervention mix for each country is necessary

How affordable is TB care? Findings from a nationwide TB patient cost survey in Ghana.

OBJECTIVES: Tuberculosis (TB) is known as a disease of the poor. Despite TB diagnosis and care usually being offered for free, TB patients can still face substantial costs, especially in the context of multi-drug resistance (MDR). The End TB Strategy calls for zero TB-affected families incurring 'catastrophic' costs due to TB by 2025. This paper examines, by MDR status, the level and composition of costs incurred by TB-affected households during care seeking and treatment; assesses the affordability of TB care using catastrophic and impoverishment measures; and describes coping strategies used by TB-affected households to pay for TB care. METHODS: A nationally representative survey of TB patients at public health facilities across Ghana. RESULTS: We enrolled 691 patients (66 MDR). The median expenditure for non-MDR TB was US$429.6 during treatment, vs. US$659.0 for MDR patients (P-value = 0.001). Catastrophic costs affected 64.1% of patients. MDR patients were pushed significantly further over the threshold for catastrophic payments than DS patients. Payments for TB care led to a significant increase in the proportion of households in the study sample that live below the poverty line at the time of survey compared to pre-TB diagnosis. Over half of patients undertook coping strategies. CONCLUSION: TB patients in Ghana incur substantial costs, despite free diagnosis and treatment. High rates of catastrophic costs and coping strategies in both non-MDR and MDR patients show that new policies are urgently needed to ensure TB care is actually affordable for TB patients

National tuberculosis spending efficiency and its associated factors in 121 low-income and middle-income countries, 2010-19: a data envelopment and stochastic frontier analysis

BACKGROUND: Maximising the efficiency of national tuberculosis programmes is key to improving service coverage, outcomes, and progress towards End TB targets. We aimed to determine the overall efficiency of tuberculosis spending and investigate associated factors in 121 low-income and middle-income countries between 2010 and 2019. METHODS: In this data envelopment and stochastic frontier analysis, we used data from the WHO Global TB report series on tuberculosis spending as the input and treatment coverage as the output to estimate tuberculosis spending efficiency. We investigated associations between 25 independent variables and overall efficiency. FINDINGS: We estimated global tuberculosis spending efficiency to be between 73·8% (95% CI 71·2-76·3) and 87·7% (84·9-90·6) in 2019, depending on the analytical method used. This estimate suggests that existing global tuberculosis treatment coverage could be increased by between 12·3% (95% CI 9·4-15·1) and 26·2% (23·7-28·8) for the same amount of spending. Efficiency has improved over the study period, mainly since 2015, but a substantial difference of 70·7-72·1 percentage points between the most and least efficient countries still exists. We found a consistent significant association between efficiency and current health expenditure as a share of gross domestic product, out-of-pocket spending on health, and some Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) indicators such as universal health coverage. INTERPRETATION: To improve efficiency, treatment coverage will need to be increased, particularly in the least efficient contexts where this might require additional spending. However, progress towards global End TB targets is slow even in the most efficient countries. Variables associated with TB spending efficiency suggest efficiency is complimented by commitments to improving health-care access that is free at the point of use and wider progress towards the SDGs. These findings support calls for additional investment in tuberculosis care. FUNDING: None

National tuberculosis spending efficiency and its associated factors in 121 low-income and middle-income countries, 2010-19: a data envelopment and stochastic frontier analysis.

BACKGROUND: Maximising the efficiency of national tuberculosis programmes is key to improving service coverage, outcomes, and progress towards End TB targets. We aimed to determine the overall efficiency of tuberculosis spending and investigate associated factors in 121 low-income and middle-income countries between 2010 and 2019. METHODS: In this data envelopment and stochastic frontier analysis, we used data from the WHO Global TB report series on tuberculosis spending as the input and treatment coverage as the output to estimate tuberculosis spending efficiency. We investigated associations between 25 independent variables and overall efficiency. FINDINGS: We estimated global tuberculosis spending efficiency to be between 73·8% (95% CI 71·2-76·3) and 87·7% (84·9-90·6) in 2019, depending on the analytical method used. This estimate suggests that existing global tuberculosis treatment coverage could be increased by between 12·3% (95% CI 9·4-15·1) and 26·2% (23·7-28·8) for the same amount of spending. Efficiency has improved over the study period, mainly since 2015, but a substantial difference of 70·7-72·1 percentage points between the most and least efficient countries still exists. We found a consistent significant association between efficiency and current health expenditure as a share of gross domestic product, out-of-pocket spending on health, and some Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) indicators such as universal health coverage. INTERPRETATION: To improve efficiency, treatment coverage will need to be increased, particularly in the least efficient contexts where this might require additional spending. However, progress towards global End TB targets is slow even in the most efficient countries. Variables associated with TB spending efficiency suggest efficiency is complimented by commitments to improving health-care access that is free at the point of use and wider progress towards the SDGs. These findings support calls for additional investment in tuberculosis care. FUNDING: None

Expansion of social protection is necessary towards zero catastrophic costs due to TB: The first national TB patient cost survey in the Philippines.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) is a disease associated with poverty. Moreover, a significant proportion of TB patients face a substantial financial burden before and during TB care. One of the top targets in the End TB strategy was to achieve zero catastrophic costs due to TB by 2020. To assess patient costs related to TB care and the proportion of TB-affected households that faced catastrophic costs, the Philippines National TB Programme (NTP) conducted a national TB patient cost survey in 2016-2017. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey of 1,912 TB patients taking treatment in health facilities engaged with the NTP. The sample consists of 786 drug-sensitive TB (DS-TB) patients in urban facilities, 806 DS-TB patients in rural facilities, and 320 drug-resistant TB (DR-TB) patients. Catastrophic cost due to TB is defined as total costs, consisting of direct medical and non-medical costs and indirect costs net of social assistance, exceeding 20% of annual household income. RESULTS: The overall mean total cost including pre- and post-diagnostic costs was US$601. The mean total cost was five times higher among DR-TB patients than DS-TB patients. Direct non-medical costs and income loss accounted for 42.7% and 40.4% of the total cost of TB, respectively. More than 40% of households had to rely on dissaving, taking loans, or selling their assets to cope with the costs. Overall, 42.4% (95% confidence interval (95% CI): 40.2-44.6) of TB-affected households faced catastrophic costs due to TB, and it was significantly higher among DR-TB patients (89.7%, 95%CI: 86.3-93.0). A TB enabler package, which 70% of DR-TB patients received, reduced catastrophic costs by 13.1 percentage points (89.7% to 76.6%) among DR-TB patients, but only by 0.4 percentage points (42.4% to 42.0%), overall. CONCLUSIONS: TB patients in the Philippines face a substantial financial burden due to TB despite free TB services provided by the National TB Programme. The TB enabler package mitigated catastrophic costs to some extent, but only for DR-TB patients. Enhancing the current social and welfare support through multisectoral collaboration is urgently required to achieve zero catastrophic costs due to TB

The burden of drug resistance tuberculosis in Ghana; results of the First National Survey.

Resistance to Tuberculosis drugs has become a major threat to the control of tuberculosis (TB) globally. We conducted the first nation-wide drug resistance survey to investigate the level and pattern of resistance to first-line TB drugs among newly and previously treated sputum smear-positive TB cases. We also evaluated associations between potential risk factors and TB drug resistance. Using the World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines on conducting national TB surveys, we selected study participants from 33 health facilities from across the country, grouped into 29 clusters, and included them into the survey. Between April 2016 and June 2017, a total of 927 patients (859 new and 68 previously treated) were enrolled in the survey. Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) isolates were successfully cultured from 598 (65.5%) patient samples and underwent DST, 550 from newly diagnosed and 48 from previously treated patients. The proportion of patients who showed resistance to any of the TB drugs tested was 25.2% (95% CI; 21.8-28.9). The most frequent resistance was to Streptomycin (STR) (12.3%), followed by Isoniazid (INH) (10.4%), with Rifampicin (RIF), showing the least resistance of 2.4%. Resistance to Isoniazid and Rifampicin (multi-drug resistance) was found in 19 (3.2%; 95% CI: 1.9-4.9) isolates. Prevalence of multidrug resistance was 7 (1.3%; 95% CI: 0.5-2.6) among newly diagnosed and 12 (25.0%; 95% CI: 13.6-39.6) among previously treated patients. At both univariate and multivariate analysis, MDR-TB was positively associated with previous history of TB treatment (OR = 5.09, 95% CI: 1.75-14.75, p = 0.003); (OR = 5.41, 95% CI: 1.69-17.30, p = 0.004). The higher levels of MDR-TB and overall resistance to any TB drug among previously treated patients raises concerns about adherence to treatment. This calls for strengthening existing TB programme measures to ensure a system for adequately testing and monitoring TB drug resistance

Cost-effectiveness and resource implications of aggressive action on tuberculosis in China, India, and South Africa: a combined analysis of nine models.

BACKGROUND: The post-2015 End TB Strategy sets global targets of reducing tuberculosis incidence by 50% and mortality by 75% by 2025. We aimed to assess resource requirements and cost-effectiveness of strategies to achieve these targets in China, India, and South Africa. METHODS: We examined intervention scenarios developed in consultation with country stakeholders, which scaled up existing interventions to high but feasible coverage by 2025. Nine independent modelling groups collaborated to estimate policy outcomes, and we estimated the cost of each scenario by synthesising service use estimates, empirical cost data, and expert opinion on implementation strategies. We estimated health effects (ie, disability-adjusted life-years averted) and resource implications for 2016-35, including patient-incurred costs. To assess resource requirements and cost-effectiveness, we compared scenarios with a base case representing continued current practice. FINDINGS: Incremental tuberculosis service costs differed by scenario and country, and in some cases they more than doubled existing funding needs. In general, expansion of tuberculosis services substantially reduced patient-incurred costs and, in India and China, produced net cost savings for most interventions under a societal perspective. In all three countries, expansion of access to care produced substantial health gains. Compared with current practice and conventional cost-effectiveness thresholds, most intervention approaches seemed highly cost-effective. INTERPRETATION: Expansion of tuberculosis services seems cost-effective for high-burden countries and could generate substantial health and economic benefits for patients, although substantial new funding would be required. Further work to determine the optimal intervention mix for each country is necessary. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

The impact of poverty and social protection on tuberculosis

Tuberculosis (TB) infects over 9 million people annually and is responsible for approximately 1.5 million deaths each year. Despite high treatment success rates, declines in incidence have averaged only 1.5% per year over the past decade. The newly adopted End TB Strategy sets a progressive agenda that moves beyond the medical sphere and includes a focus on upstream social determinants aimed at prevention. The strategy specifically calls for stronger poverty alleviation and social protection programs and policies. This dissertation sets out to support the need for social protection programs to combat TB, as well as attempting to answer the questions of who should be the recipients of such programs and in what form should they take.Paper one uses country-level data to show that spending on social protection is associated with decreased TB prevalence, incidence, and mortality. This work has a global purview and predicts a drop of 18 per 100,000 persons in TB prevalence rate from 1% increase in social protection spending. This is true even after adjusting for factors associated with TB rates such as level of economic development, the strength of the health system, and HIV burden.The second paper examines the relationship between household poverty and TB disease. Using household asset and characteristic data, this work creates household socioeconomic quintiles and attempts to show the relationship between this measure and individual active TB disease. The work utilized eight national TB prevalence surveys; large household surveys with a rigorous diagnostic TB algorithm. Although this approach found lower risk of TB disease for individuals in the poorest quintiles in four countries, a dose-response relationship was not observed. This paper also created an absolute wealth estimate, a US dollar-based measure of household wealth, which allowed for comparability across settings and also pooled country models. This measure of household socio-economic level did not have a clear association with individual TB risk. This work suggests novel ways of assessing the relationship between poverty and TB at the individual level that have the potential to be more efficient and to further the field of the social determinants of TB. The final paper of this dissertation focuses on a TB patient cost survey in Myanmar. This nationally representative survey includes 966 TB patients across the country and gathers information about their income and costs while seeking care. This survey is the first step in measuring the percentage of TB-affected households experiencing catastrophic costs due to the disease, defined as costs exceeding 20% of annual household income. This metric is one of the high level indicators in the End TB Strategy and will be measured by the World Health Organization and its partners in the majority of high burden countries in the coming years. The Myanmar survey found 65% of households experiencing catastrophic costs due to TB, with major cost drivers being patient’s time and additional food and/or nutritional supplements required because of the disease. Together these three papers support the need for social protection, alongside appropriate and timely medical care, in order to reach the ambitious targets set forth by the End TB Strategy