The Scottish economy [July 1975]

Scottish GDP in real terms increased in 1974, and our central estimate for this increase is £4106m at constant prices; this represents an increase of 0.8% over 1973. Modest though this is, in a year in which UK GDP as a whole actually declined it can be regarded with some satisfaction. Indeed our qualitative judgement is that the statistical forecast is, if anything on the conservative side, though as yet our forecasting methods are insufficiently developed to include these additional indicators of activity levels. Trends in GDP during the first quarter of 1975 are more difficult to predict

Summary [October 1975]

This brief paper summarises world, UK and Scottish economic conditions in the quarter to October 1975. The downward trend in production in the industrialised countries which took effect from about the middle of 1974 appears to have continued throughout the first half of 1975. While Japan experienced a slight rise in industrial production in the second quarter of this year, a general recovery of world trade appears to be waiting for unmistakable signs of recovery in economic activity in the United States. Evidence from the United States is conflicting, and therefore it seems unlikely that output in the industrialised countries will increase before the end of the year. These uncertainties may postpone recovery in the United Kingdom

Age-Associated mRNA and miRNA Expression Changes in the Blood-Brain Barrier

Functional and structural age-associated changes in the blood-brain barrier (BBB) may affect the neurovascular unit and contribute to the onset and progression of age-associated neurodegenerative pathologies, including Alzheimer’s disease. The current study interrogated the RNA profile of the BBB in an ageing human autopsy brain cohort and an ageing mouse model using combined laser capture microdissection and expression profiling. Only 12 overlapping genes were altered in the same direction in the BBB of both ageing human and mouse cohorts. These included genes with roles in regulating vascular tone, tight junction protein expression and cell adhesion, all processes prone to dysregulation with advancing age. Integrated mRNA and miRNA network and pathway enrichment analysis of the datasets identified 15 overlapping miRNAs that showed altered expression. In addition to targeting genes related to DNA binding and/or autophagy, many of the miRNAs identified play a role in age-relevant processes, including BBB dysfunction and regulating the neuroinflammatory response. Future studies have the potential to develop targeted therapeutic approaches against these candidates to prevent vascular dysfunction in the ageing brain

Foreign investment in Scotland

A significant feature of the UK economy throughout the post-war period has been the growth in direct foreign investment in manufacturing industries. For the host nation the main benefits are employment creation, income generation and import reduction or export expansion. Scotland has been particularly successful in attracting the lion's inward investment for example in the period 1945- 1965 a total of 108,500 jobs were created by foreign firms setting up manufacturing units in the despite its size, obtained 46,221 (42.6%), whereas the second most SE England, gained only 16,926 (15.6%). The reasons for this success have been attributed primarily to a combination of the availability of labour in Scotland, the financial inducements offered by central government as part of regional policy and, the undoubted attraction of the environment, notably of course golf courses, for foreign businessmen. This brief paper explores the nature of Scotland's direct foreign investment and the reasons for its success

Carbonyl sulfide and carbon disulfide: Large-scale distributions over the western Pacific and emissions from Asia during TRACE-P

An extensive set of carbonyl sulfide (OCS) and carbon disulfide (CS2) observations were made as part of the NASA Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) project, which took place in the early spring 2001. TRACE-P sampling focused on the western Pacific region but in total included the geographic region 110°E to 290°E longitude, 5°N to 50°N latitude, and 0–12 km altitude. Substantial OCS and CS2 enhancements were observed for a great many air masses of Chinese and Japanese origin during TRACE-P. Over the western Pacific, mean mixing ratios of long-lived OCS and shorter-lived CS2 showed a gradual decrease by about 10% and a factor of 5–10, respectively, from the surface to 8–10 km altitude, presumably because land-based sources dominated their distribution during February through April 2001. The highest mean OCS and CS2levels (580 and 20 pptv, respectively, based on 2.5° × 2.5° latitude bins) were observed below 2 km near the coast of Asia, at latitudes between 25°N and 35°N, where urban Asian outflow was strongest. Ratios of OCS versus CO for continental SE Asia were much lower compared to Chinese and Japanese signatures and were strongly associated with biomass burning/biofuel emissions. We present a new inventory of anthropogenic Asian emissions (including biomass burning) for OCS and CS2 and compare it to emission estimates based on regional relationships of OCS and CS2 to CO and CO2. The OCS and CS2 results for the two methods compare well for continental SE Asia and Japan plus Korea and also for Chinese CS2 emissions. However, it appears that the inventory underestimates Chinese emissions of OCS by about 30–100%. This difference may be related to the fact that we did not include natural sources such as wetland emissions in our inventory, although the contributions from such sources are believed to be at a seasonal low during the study period. Uncertainties in OCS emissions from Chinese coal burning, which are poorly characterized, likely contribute to the discrepancy

Jovian Plasmas Torus Interaction with Europa. Plasma Wake Structure and Effect of Inductive Magnetic Field: 3D Hybrid Kinetic Simulation

The hybrid kinetic model supports comprehensive simulation of the interaction between different spatial and energetic elements of the Europa moon-magnetosphere system with respect to a variable upstream magnetic field and flux or density distributions of plasma and energetic ions, electrons, and neutral atoms. This capability is critical for improving the interpretation of the existing Europa flyby measurements from the Galileo Orbiter mission, and for planning flyby and orbital measurements (including the surface and atmospheric compositions) for future missions. The simulations are based on recent models of the atmosphere of Europa (Cassidy et al., 2007; Shematovich et al., 2005). In contrast to previous approaches with MHD simulations, the hybrid model allows us to fully take into account the finite gyroradius effect and electron pressure, and to correctly estimate the ion velocity distribution and the fluxes along the magnetic field (assuming an initial Maxwellian velocity distribution for upstream background ions). Photoionization, electron-impact ionization, charge exchange and collisions between the ions and neutrals are also included in our model. We consider the models with O and S background plasma, and various betas for background ions and electrons, and pickup electrons. The majority of O2 atmosphere is thermal with an extended non-thermal population (Cassidy et al., 2007). In this paper, we discuss two tasks: (1) the plasma wake structure dependence on the parameters of the upstream plasma and Europa's atmosphere (model I, cases (a) and (b) with a homogeneous Jovian magnetosphere field, an inductive magnetic dipole and high oceanic shell conductivity); and (2) estimation of the possible effect of an induced magnetic field arising from oceanic shell conductivity. This effect was estimated based on the difference between the observed and modeled magnetic fields (model II, case (c) with an inhomogeneous Jovian magnetosphere field, an inductive magnetic dipole and low oceanic shell conductivity)

Tourism in Scotland

In 1978 13.2 million tourist and business travellers spent £523 million in Scotland, Foreign visitors, although only 8.5% of the total, contributed £158 million (ie 30.2%) of tourist expenditure. As such tourism is both an "invisible" export, since it is a means of earning foreign exchange, and a significant provider of jobs, many of which are created in the remoter rural areas. Despite its importance statistics relating specifically to tourism are not readily available from published sources. The "industry" actually combines the resources of a wide range of activities, most of which have economic and social links with other sectors of the economy independent from tourism. These include hotels and catering, transport and travel services as well as entertainment, sport and recreation facilities. Consequently the economic impact of tourism is generally assessed not in terms of employment and output but by more indirect measures such as numbers of visitors, or bednights spent in Scotland, as well as tourist expenditure and hotel occupancy data. This brief will examine the wider economic impact of Scotland's tourism industry and its future

Review of the quarter's economic trends [April 1980]

This brief paper surveys recent world and UK economic data and reveals that there are some signs to suggest that the world economy will withstand the 1979 oil price shock better than it did in 1973/74. The main difference is that the 1979 price rise was not super-imposed on as severe an inflation as that which occurred on the previous occasion. The present rate of increase in the world prices should not reach the levels of the last cycle when the twelve month increase in manufacturing prices peaked at 23%. Advance warning by US economists that 1979 was going to be a year of difficulty did not go unnoticed by businessmen in that country who took steps in 1978 to avoid a repetition of the inventory boom and bust cycle which had proved so costly in the recession of 1973/74. Also, consumer expectations are adjusting towards a continuing rise in the price of oil. In the UK real GDP is expected to fall by 2½% from mid-year 1980. Thereafter, it is assumed to grow at an average annual rate of 1% for the next four years

The Scottish economy [October 1979]

The previous two issues of this Commentary have both indicated that the Scottish economy has been performing poorly since the mid 1970's. This is true in both an absolute and a relative sense. Manufacturing production only increased by 1.2% between 1976 and 1978 and, after dropping below 1975 levels in the first quarter of 1979, is unlikely to show any substantial improvement for the year as a whole. In an international context the 1975-1978 performance can best be described as appalling. Over the same period industrial production in Eire grew by 28%, in Japan and the US by 23% and in West Germany and France by 15%. Inertia in developing new markets and lack of competitiveness in existing markets both contributed substantially to the virtual stagnation of Scottish output. Because the problems are so diverse, so too must be the solutions

The tax and price index

A feature of this year's Budget was the shift in emphasis from direct taxation to indirect taxation. The annual yield of income tax has been reduced by £4½ billion while that of direct taxes was increased by a similar amount. It must be acknowledged that the new tax and price index has a number of deficiencies. It is only applicable to a proportion of the population, namely those who pay tax and whose gross income is less than £10,000 per annum. It takes no account of the social wage, nor of changes in benefits, such as the recent restructuring of child allowance. It smoothes out tax payments over a full year even though, for administrative reasons, these may fluctuate widely from month to month. This brief paper explores some of these deficiencies in more detail and assess their impact on taxation