Hindsight Effects in Dollar-Weighted Returns

A growing number of studies use dollar-weighted returns as evidence that consistently bad timing substantially reduces investor returns, and that consequently the equity risk premium must be considerably lower than previously thought. These studies measure the impact of bad timing as the difference between the geometric mean return (corresponding to a buy-and-hold strategy) and the dollar-weighted return. However, the present paper demonstrates that this differential combines two distinct effects: The correlation of investor cashflows with (i) future asset returns, and (ii) past asset returns. Both correlations tend to alter the dollar-weighted return, but only the first affects investors’ expected wealth. The second generates a hindsight bias. This paper also derives a method which separates these two effects. The results show that the great majority of the return differential for mainstream US equities has been due to hindsight bias, and very little due to bad investor timing. Dollar-weighted returns have been low because aggregate investment flows reflect past returns rather than future returns, and these low returns should not lead us to adopt correspondingly low estimates of the risk premium. The decomposition method which is derived here also has many applications in other fields where dollar-weighted returns are used, such as project finance and investment management

Extreme radio-wave scattering associated with hot stars

We use data on extreme radio scintillation to demonstrate that this phenomenon is associated with hot stars in the solar neighbourhood. The ionized gas responsible for the scattering is found at distances up to 1.75pc from the host star, and on average must comprise 1.E5 distinct structures per star. We detect azimuthal velocities of the plasma, relative to the host star, up to 9.7 km/s, consistent with warm gas expanding at the sound speed. The circumstellar plasma structures that we infer are similar in several respects to the cometary knots seen in the Helix, and in other planetary nebulae. There the ionized gas appears as a skin around tiny molecular clumps. Our analysis suggests that molecular clumps are ubiquitous circumstellar features, unrelated to the evolutionary state of the star. The total mass in such clumps is comparable to the stellar mass.Comment: 9 pages, 1 figure, to appear in Ap

Developing consensus on the principles and key actions for collaborative working between general practices and community pharmacies: a modified eDelphi study

OBJECTIVES: To develop consensus on the principles and key actions for collaborative working in practice between general practice, community pharmacy and patients and their carers. DESIGN: Three-round modified eDelphi study, starting from an established conceptual model of collaboration between general practitioners (GPs) and community pharmacists. SETTING: Community pharmacies and general practices in England, UK. PARTICIPANTS: A panel of 123 experts: 43% from a community pharmacy background; 36% from a GP background; 13% patients, carers or patient representatives and 8% from academic or commissioner backgrounds. Panellist numbers reduced by approximately 30% in rounds 2 and 3. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Consensus between expert panellists, defined as at least 75% agreement. RESULTS: A high level of consensus (>80%) was achieved on all components of a model of collaboration composed of Fundamental Principles of Collaboration and Key Activities for Action, supported by a series of aspirational statements and suggested practical actions. The fundamental principles and key activities are appended by contextual points. The findings indicate that collaboration in practice involves team members other than just GPs and community pharmacists and recognises that patients often want to know how each professional team is involved in their care. This study also provides insights into how collaboration between general practice and community pharmacy settings appears to have shifted during the COVID-19 pandemic, especially through opportunities for virtual collaboration and communication that can transcend the need for close geographical proximity. CONCLUSION: A consensus-based model of collaboration between general practice teams, community pharmacy teams, and patients and their carers has been developed. It is practically focused, values the patient voice and incorporates general practice and community pharmacy team members. While developed in England, the model is likely to also have applicability to other countries with similar health systems that include general practices and community pharmacies

Out of the Weald, the secret Weald

This volume details the results of archaeological work conducted across four sites within the Sussex Weald. Among the findings presented here are some regionally important remains including a Palaeolithic handaxe, perhaps some of the earliest land division so far excavated in the Wealden region dating to the Late Bronze Age, a Roman shrine and what could possibly constitute the remains of an Iron Age fort, one of the hill-slope type

Local authority responses to climate change in South Africa: The challenges of transboundary governance

Recent progress and innovation are testament to the willingness of municipal authorities to address climate change. However, urban regions worldwide exhibit an immense diversity of conditions, capabilities and responses to the challenges of changing climatic conditions. While separated by politico-administrative borders, adjacent municipalities within such regions are connected through biophysical, politico-economic, and social systems likely to be reconfigured under changing climatic/environmental conditions. Yet, to date, politico-administrative borders have largely determined the parameters of local government climate change adaptation strategies, with insufficient attention to the role of inter-municipal collaboration, especially between neighbouring rural, peri-urban and urban municipalities, for co-ordinating such policies and interventions. Within a multi-level governance framework, this paper considers the recent evolution of climate agendas in the eThekwini (formerly Durban City Council) metropolitan municipality and the adjacent Ugu (predominantly rural) district municipality on the south coast of KwaZulu-Natal province (KZN), South Africa, focusing particularly on cross-border collaboration within the greater city region. The challenges were investigated by means of 53 in-depth, semi-structured interviews with municipal, regional and local authority association staffin November 2009, March 2012, and August 2017. Our core argument is that weak inter-municipal collaboration, particularly between urban, peri-urban and rural areas within metropolitan and functional city regions, has been a significant impediment to realizing transformative adaptation within such regions. The experiences of these two contiguous yet contrasting municipalities represent a microcosm of the dramatic discontinuities and inequalities on all variables within adjacent urban metropolitan and rural contexts in South Africa and beyond. Despite promising recent signs, the challenges of inter-municipal collaborative action are therefore formidable