Validating Predictions of Unobserved Quantities

The ultimate purpose of most computational models is to make predictions, commonly in support of some decision-making process (e.g., for design or operation of some system). The quantities that need to be predicted (the quantities of interest or QoIs) are generally not experimentally observable before the prediction, since otherwise no prediction would be needed. Assessing the validity of such extrapolative predictions, which is critical to informed decision-making, is challenging. In classical approaches to validation, model outputs for observed quantities are compared to observations to determine if they are consistent. By itself, this consistency only ensures that the model can predict the observed quantities under the conditions of the observations. This limitation dramatically reduces the utility of the validation effort for decision making because it implies nothing about predictions of unobserved QoIs or for scenarios outside of the range of observations. However, there is no agreement in the scientific community today regarding best practices for validation of extrapolative predictions made using computational models. The purpose of this paper is to propose and explore a validation and predictive assessment process that supports extrapolative predictions for models with known sources of error. The process includes stochastic modeling, calibration, validation, and predictive assessment phases where representations of known sources of uncertainty and error are built, informed, and tested. The proposed methodology is applied to an illustrative extrapolation problem involving a misspecified nonlinear oscillator

Leaf-Encapsulated Vaccines: Agroinfiltration and Transient Expression of the Antigen Staphylococcal Endotoxin B in Radish Leaves.

Transgene introgression is a major concern associated with transgenic plant-based vaccines. Agroinfiltration can be used to selectively transform nonreproductive organs and avoid introgression. Here, we introduce a new vaccine modality in which Staphylococcal enterotoxin B (SEB) genes are agroinfiltrated into radishes (Raphanw sativus L.), resulting in transient expression and accumulation of SEB in planta. This approach can simultaneously express multiple antigens in a single leaf. Furthermore, the potential of high-throughput vaccine production was demonstrated by simultaneously agroinfiltrating multiple radish leaves using a multichannel pipette. The expression of SEB was detectable in two leaf cell types (epidermal and guard cells) in agroinfiltrated leaves. ICR mice intranasally immunized with homogenized leaves agroinfiltrated with SEB elicited detectable antibody to SEB and displayed protection against SEB-induced interferon-gamma (IFN-γ) production. The concept of encapsulating antigens in leaves rather than purifying them for immunization may facilitate rapid vaccine production during an epidemic disease

Transforming practice: critical issues in equity, diversity and education

This Open University Reader critically examines educational issues of equity, diversity and social justice and how they are socially, culturally, economically rooted in educational practice across diverse educational settings. It highlights research, practice and pedagogies that challenge and transform educational experiences to support equity, social justice and inclusivity

Improved Laboratory Transition Probabilities for Neutral Chromium and Re-determination of the Chromium Abundance for the Sun and Three Stars

Branching fraction measurements from Fourier transform spectra in conjunction with published radiative lifetimes are used to determine transition probabilities for 263 lines of neutral chromium. These laboratory values are employed to derive a new photospheric abundance for the Sun: log $\epsilon$(Cr I)$_{\odot}$ = 5.64$\pm$0.01 ($\sigma = 0.07$). These Cr I solar abundances do not exhibit any trends with line strength nor with excitation energy and there were no obvious indications of departures from LTE. In addition, oscillator strengths for singly-ionized chromium recently reported by the FERRUM Project are used to determine: log $\epsilon$(Cr II)$_{\odot}$ = 5.77$\pm$0.03 ($\sigma = 0.13$). Transition probability data are also applied to the spectra of three stars: HD 75732 (metal-rich dwarf), HD 140283 (metal-poor subgiant), and CS 22892-052 (metal-poor giant). In all of the selected stars, Cr I is found to be underabundant with respect to Cr II. The possible causes for this abundance discrepancy and apparent ionization imbalance are discussed.Comment: 44 pages, 6 figure

Evidence of the Generation of Isosaccharinic Acids and Their Subsequent Degradation by Local Microbial Consortia within Hyper-Alkaline Contaminated Soils, with Relevance to Intermediate Level Radioactive Waste Disposal

The contamination of surface environments with hydroxide rich wastes leads to the formation of high pH (>11.0) soil profiles. One such site is a legacy lime works at Harpur Hill, Derbyshire where soil profile indicated in-situ pH values up to pH 12. Soil and porewater profiles around the site indicated clear evidence of the presence of the α and β stereoisomers of isosaccharinic acid (ISA) resulting from the anoxic, alkaline degradation of cellulosic material. ISAs are of particular interest with regards to the disposal of cellulosic materials contained within the intermediate level waste (ILW) inventory of the United Kingdom, where they may influence radionuclide mobility via complexation events occurring within a geological disposal facility (GDF) concept. The mixing of uncontaminated soils with the alkaline leachate of the site resulted in ISA generation, where the rate of generation in-situ is likely to be dependent upon the prevailing temperature of the soil. Microbial consortia present in the uncontaminated soil were capable of surviving conditions imposed by the alkaline leachate and demonstrated the ability to utilise ISAs as a carbon source. Leachate-contaminated soil was sub-cultured in a cellulose degradation product driven microcosm operating at pH 11, the consortia present were capable of the degradation of ISAs and the generation of methane from the resultant H2/CO2 produced from fermentation processes. Following microbial community analysis, fermentation processes appear to be predominated by Clostridia from the genus Alkaliphilus sp, with methanogenesis being attributed to Methanobacterium and Methanomassiliicoccus sp. The study is the first to identify the generation of ISA within an anthropogenic environment and advocates the notion that microbial activity within an ILW-GDF is likely to influence the impact of ISAs upon radionuclide migration

Refocusing multiple stressor research around the targets and scales of ecological impacts

Ecological communities face a variety of environmental and anthropogenic stressors acting simultaneously. Stressor impacts can combine additively or can interact, causing synergistic or antagonistic effects. Our knowledge of when and how interactions arise is limited, as most models and experiments only consider the effect of a small number of non-interacting stressors at one or few scales of ecological organization. This is concerning because it could lead to significant underestimations or overestimations of threats to biodiversity. Furthermore, stressors have been largely classified by their source rather than by the mechanisms and ecological scales at which they act (the target). Here, we argue, first, that a more nuanced classification of stressors by target and ecological scale can generate valuable new insights and hypotheses about stressor interactions. Second, that the predictability of multiple stressor effects, and consistent patterns in their impacts, can be evaluated by examining the distribution of stressor effects across targets and ecological scales. Third, that a variety of existing mechanistic and statistical modelling tools can play an important role in our framework and advance multiple stressor research

Mediators of lifestyle behaviour changes in obese pregnant women. Secondary analyses from the DALI lifestyle randomised controlled trial

A better understanding of what drives behaviour change in obese pregnant overweight women is needed to improve the effectiveness of lifestyle interventions in this group at risk for gestational diabetes (GDM). Therefore, we assessed which factors mediated behaviour change in the Vitamin D and Lifestyle Intervention for GDM Prevention (DALI) Lifestyle Study. A total of 436 women, with pre-pregnancy body mass index ≥29 kg/m 2 , ≤19 + 6 weeks of gestation and without GDM, were randomised for counselling based on motivational interviewing (MI) on healthy eating and physical activity, healthy eating alone, physical activity alone, or to a usual care group. Lifestyle was measured at baseline, and at 24–28 and 35–37 weeks of gestation. Outcome expectancy, risk perception, task self-efficacy and social support were measured at those same time points and considered as possible mediators of intervention effects on lifestyle. All three interventions resulted in increased positive outcome expectancy for GDM reduction, perceived risk to the baby and increased task self-efficacy. The latter mediated intervention effects on physical activity and reduced sugared drink consumption. In conclusion, our MI intervention was successful in increasing task self-efficacy, which was related to improved health behaviours

Altered sphingolipid pathway in SARS-CoV-2 infected human lung tissue

IntroductionThe SARS-CoV-2 mediated COVID-19 pandemic has impacted millions worldwide. Hyper-inflammatory processes, including cytokine storm, contribute to long-standing tissue injury and damage in COVID-19. The metabolism of sphingolipids as regulators of cell survival, differentiation, and proliferation has been implicated in inflammatory signaling and cytokine responses. Sphingosine-kinase-1 (SK1) and ceramide-synthase-2 (CERS2) generate metabolites that regulate the anti- and pro-apoptotic processes, respectively. Alterations in SK1 and CERS2 expression may contribute to the inflammation and tissue damage during COVID-19. The central objective of this study is to evaluate structural changes in the lung post-SARS-CoV-2 infection and to investigate whether the sphingolipid rheostat is altered in response to SARS-CoV-2 infection.MethodsCentral and peripheral lung tissues from COVID-19+ or control autopsies and resected lung tissue from COVID-19 convalescents were subjected to histologic evaluation of airspace and collagen deposisiton, and immunohistochemical evaluation of SK1 and CERS2.ResultsHere, we report significant reduction in air space and increase in collagen deposition in lung autopsy tissues from patients who died from COVID-19 (COVID-19+) and COVID-19 convalescent individuals. SK1 expression increased in the lungs of COVID-19+ autopsies and COVID-19 convalescent lung tissue compared to controls and was mostly associated with Type II pneumocytes and alveolar macrophages. No significant difference in CERS2 expression was noted. SARS-CoV-2 infection upregulates SK1 and increases the ratio of SK1 to CERS2 expression in lung tissues of COVID-19 autopsies and COVID-19 convalescents.DiscussionThese data suggest an alteration in the sphingolipid rheostat in lung tissue during COVID-19, suggesting a potential contribution to the inflammation and tissue damage associated with viral infection

MRI-guided histology of TDP-43 knock-in mice implicates parvalbumin interneuron loss, impaired neurogenesis and aberrant neurodevelopment in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis-frontotemporal dementia.

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and frontotemporal dementia are overlapping diseases in which MRI reveals brain structural changes in advance of symptom onset. Recapitulating these changes in preclinical models would help to improve our understanding of the molecular causes underlying regionally selective brain atrophy in early disease. We therefore investigated the translational potential of the TDP-43Q331K knock-in mouse model of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis-frontotemporal dementia using MRI. We performed in vivo MRI of TDP-43Q331K knock-in mice. Regions of significant volume change were chosen for post-mortem brain tissue analyses. Ex vivo computed tomography was performed to investigate skull shape. Parvalbumin neuron density was quantified in post-mortem amyotrophic lateral sclerosis frontal cortex. Adult mutants demonstrated parenchymal volume reductions affecting the frontal lobe and entorhinal cortex in a manner reminiscent of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis-frontotemporal dementia. Subcortical, cerebellar and brain stem regions were also affected in line with observations in pre-symptomatic carriers of mutations in C9orf72, the commonest genetic cause of both amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and frontotemporal dementia. Volume loss was also observed in the dentate gyrus of the hippocampus, along with ventricular enlargement. Immunohistochemistry revealed reduced parvalbumin interneurons as a potential cellular correlate of MRI changes in mutant mice. By contrast, microglia was in a disease activated state even in the absence of brain volume loss. A reduction in immature neurons was found in the dentate gyrus, indicative of impaired adult neurogenesis, while a paucity of parvalbumin interneurons in P14 mutant mice suggests that TDP-43Q331K disrupts neurodevelopment. Computerized tomography imaging showed altered skull morphology in mutants, further suggesting a role for TDP-43Q331K in development. Finally, analysis of human post-mortem brains confirmed a paucity of parvalbumin interneurons in the prefrontal cortex in sporadic amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis linked to C9orf72 mutations. Regional brain MRI changes seen in human amyotrophic lateral sclerosis-frontotemporal dementia are recapitulated in TDP-43Q331K knock-in mice. By marrying in vivo imaging with targeted histology, we can unravel cellular and molecular processes underlying selective brain vulnerability in human disease. As well as helping to understand the earliest causes of disease, our MRI and histological markers will be valuable in assessing the efficacy of putative therapeutics in TDP-43Q331K knock-in mice