COVID-19 and the cross-section of equity returns: impact and transmission

Using the first reported case of COVID-19 in a given U.S. county as the event day, we find that firms headquartered in an affected county experience, on average, a 27-bps lower return in the 10-day post-event window. This negative effect nearly doubles in magnitude for firms in counties with a higher infection rate (−50 bps). We test a number of transmission channels. Firms belonging to labor-intensive industries and those located in counties with a large mobility decline have worse stock performance. Firms sensitive to COVID-19-induced uncertainty also exhibit more negative returns. Finally, more negative stock returns are associated with downward revisions in earnings forecasts

Ongoing strategies to improve the management of upper respiratory tract infections and reduce inappropriate antibiotic use particularly among lower and middle-income countries: findings and implications for the future

Introduction: Antibiotics are indispensable to maintaining human health; however, their overuse has resulted in resistant organisms, increasing morbidity, mortality and costs. Increasing antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a major public health threat, resulting in multiple campaigns across countries to improve appropriate antimicrobial use. This includes addressing the overuse of antimicrobials for self-limiting infections, such as upper respiratory tract infections (URTIs), particularly in lower- and middle-income countries (LMICs) where there is the greatest inappropriate use and where antibiotic utilization has increased the most in recent years. Consequently, there is a need to document current practices and successful initiatives in LMICs to improve future antimicrobial use. Methodology: Documentation of current epidemiology and management of URTIs, particularly in LMICs, as well as campaigns to improve future antimicrobial use and their influence where known. Results: Much concern remains regarding the prescribing and dispensing of antibiotics for URTIs among LMICs. This includes considerable self-purchasing, up to 100% of pharmacies in some LMICs. However, multiple activities are now ongoing to improve future use. These incorporate educational initiatives among all key stakeholder groups, as well as legislation and other activities to reduce self-purchasing as part of National Action Plans (NAPs). Further activities are still needed however. These include increased physician and pharmacist education, starting in medical and pharmacy schools; greater monitoring of prescribing and dispensing practices, including the development of pertinent quality indicators; and targeted patient information and health education campaigns. It is recognized that such activities are more challenging in LMICs given more limited resources and a lack of healthcare professionals. Conclusion: Initiatives will grow across LMICs to reduce inappropriate prescribing and dispensing of antimicrobials for URTIs as part of NAPs and other activities, and these will be monitored

Essays on The Effects of Variable Debt Obligations

This dissertation consists of three essays on variable debt obligations. In the first essay, I develop a novel dataset to examine the impact of pension group annuity purchases on capital structure and corporate policies. Pension obligations are shown to contribute to rising cash flow volatility to stakeholders, which is a prominent factor in the decision to offload these liabilities. I find the reduction in pension debt is replaced with a commensurate dollar value of long-term debt. The substitution is concentrated in financially unconstrained firms, while those facing greater financial constraints reduce total leverage. Firms engaging in a group annuity purchase increase pension contributions and capital expenditures in the event year. Consistent with a lower expected probability of future cash shortfalls, changes to investment policy are concentrated in financially constrained firms. Short and long horizon event studies reveal pension annuity buyouts are associated with significantly negative abnormal returns due to disappointing cash flow news upon announcement. In the second chapter of the dissertation, we exploit an exogenous, universal increase in discount rates mandated by the Moving Ahead for Progress Act (MAP-21) to identify the impact of pension overhang on investment. We find that firms with large unfunded pension liabilities increase investment by 13% after the MAP-21 induced decrease in pension liabilities. The effects are more pronounced for ex-ante financially constrained firms, yet pension-related cash flows have a minimal impact on investment. Credit ratings of affected firms improve while CEOs with more pay-for-performance and longer horizon increase investment to a greater extent after MAP-21. Our results highlight the role of pension overhang on investment. In the third chapter, we examine the relative pricing of nominal Treasury bonds and Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) in the presence of United States default risk. Higher bond yields are associated with a higher U.S. credit default swap premium, but more so for TIPS. This leads to a narrower breakeven inflation (BEI). An estimated no-arbitrage model shows BEI is related to differing expectations of loss given default on the two Treasury securities and that most of the relative mispricing after the financial crisis can be attributed to default risk. Our finding suggests credit risk is embedded in the pricing of U.S. sovereign debt.Ph.D

Saline nasal irrigation for acute upper respiratory tract infections

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