Using Past Surveys of Attitudes to Predict Current U.S. Military Retention

Retaining qualified active duty members in the military is an essential mission for DoD. This research presents findings on the relationship between an active duty member’s plans to stay on active duty (as indicated on a survey) and the member\u27s actual retention behavior in the U.S. military two and four years later. Retention plans, as measured on the DoD’s Status of Forces Surveys, have often been interpreted as an indicator of subsequent retention behavior, but the relationship between survey responses and actual retention behavior has not been verified using actual retention data. This study seeks to examine this relationship. Further, in cases in which a service member indicated high retention plans, but did not remain in the Military, it may be valuable to explore factors that have led to this change. Recent transactional data of U.S. military separation codes was restructured among time dimensions and military rank criteria and compared against prior survey data measuring retention plans. Employing weighted logistic regression analyses, retention plans were used to predict a dichotomous outcome of actual retention behavior (i.e., “retained” or “left”). Moreover, predicted probabilities were used to show how actual retention behavior varies as members indicate higher and lower levels of plans to remain on active duty. Analyses showed that an active duty member’s plans to stay on active duty had a positive relationship with actual retention behavior two years later and a stronger relationship four years later. Chief among the findings were that Marine Corps members and junior enlisted member were less likely than members in other Services and paygrades to remain in the Military after two and four years. However, the relationship between retention plans and actual retention behavior was stronger among these subpopulations (Marines, junior enlisted) than members in other Service and paygrades. This research is part of a larger body of on-going research that seeks to implement data wrangling techniques to merge survey data with transactional administrative data, augmenting the use of survey items in predicting retention outcomes. Future research will focus on identifying factors related to a Service member indicating high retention plans but separating from the Military (i.e., those who, at one point, intended to stay, but separated 2-4 years later). Findings may support the Department of Defense in tailoring its policies and programs (i.e., promotional opportunities, family policy, etc.) to better support retention

Inconsistency as a touchstone for coherence measures

The debate on probabilistic measures of coherence has focused on evaluating sets of consistent propositions. In this paper we draw attention to the largely neglected question of whether such measures concur with intuitions on test cases involving inconsistent propositions and whether they satisfy general adequacy constraints on coherence and inconsistency. While it turns out that, for the vast majority of measures in their original shape, this question must be answered in the negative, we show that it is possible to adapt many of them in order to improve their performance

Notch1 mutations drive clonal expansion in normal esophageal epithelium but impair tumor growth

NOTCH1 mutant clones occupy the majority of normal human esophagus by middle age but are comparatively rare in esophageal cancers, suggesting NOTCH1 mutations drive clonal expansion but impede carcinogenesis. Here we test this hypothesis. Sequencing NOTCH1 mutant clones in aging human esophagus reveals frequent biallelic mutations that block NOTCH1 signaling. In mouse esophagus, heterozygous Notch1 mutation confers a competitive advantage over wild-type cells, an effect enhanced by loss of the second allele. Widespread Notch1 loss alters transcription but has minimal effects on the epithelial structure and cell dynamics. In a carcinogenesis model, Notch1 mutations were less prevalent in tumors than normal epithelium. Deletion of Notch1 reduced tumor growth, an effect recapitulated by anti-NOTCH1 antibody treatment. Notch1 null tumors showed reduced proliferation. We conclude that Notch1 mutations in normal epithelium are beneficial as wild-type Notch1 favors tumor expansion. NOTCH1 blockade may have therapeutic potential in preventing esophageal squamous cancer

Are component positioning and prosthesis size associated with hip resurfacing failure?

BACKGROUND: Recent studies suggest that there is a learning curve for metal-on-metal hip resurfacing. The purpose of this study was to assess whether implant positioning changed with surgeon experience and whether positioning and component sizing were associated with implant longevity. METHODS: We evaluated the first 361 consecutive hip resurfacings performed by a single surgeon, which had a mean follow-up of 59 months (range, 28 to 87 months). Pre and post-operative radiographs were assessed to determine the inclination of the acetabular component, as well as the sagittal and coronal femoral stem-neck angles. Changes in the precision of component placement were determined by assessing changes in the standard deviation of each measurement using variance ratio and linear regression analysis. Additionally, the cup and stem-shaft angles as well as component sizes were compared between the 31 hips that failed over the follow-up period and the surviving components to assess for any differences that might have been associated with an increased risk for failure. RESULTS: Surgeon experience was correlated with improved precision of the antero-posterior and lateral positioning of the femoral component. However, femoral and acetabular radiographic implant positioning angles were not different between the surviving hips and failures. The failures had smaller mean femoral component diameters as compared to the non-failure group (44 versus 47 millimeters). CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that there may be differences in implant positioning in early versus late learning curve procedures, but that in the absence of recognized risk factors such as intra-operative notching of the femoral neck and cup inclination in excess of 50 degrees, component positioning does not appear to be associated with failure. Nevertheless, surgeons should exercise caution in operating patients with small femoral necks, especially when they are early in the learning curve

Association of Mortality and Risk of Epilepsy With Type of Acute Symptomatic Seizure After Ischemic Stroke and an Updated Prognostic Model

IMPORTANCE: Acute symptomatic seizures occurring within 7 days after ischemic stroke may be associated with an increased mortality and risk of epilepsy. It is unknown whether the type of acute symptomatic seizure influences this risk. OBJECTIVE: To compare mortality and risk of epilepsy following different types of acute symptomatic seizures. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This cohort study analyzed data acquired from 2002 to 2019 from 9 tertiary referral centers. The derivation cohort included adults from 7 cohorts and 2 case-control studies with neuroimaging-confirmed ischemic stroke and without a history of seizures. Replication in 3 separate cohorts included adults with acute symptomatic status epilepticus after neuroimaging-confirmed ischemic stroke. The final data analysis was performed in July 2022. EXPOSURES: Type of acute symptomatic seizure. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: All-cause mortality and epilepsy (at least 1 unprovoked seizure presenting >7 days after stroke). RESULTS: A total of 4552 adults were included in the derivation cohort (2547 male participants [56%]; 2005 female [44%]; median age, 73 years [IQR, 62-81]). Acute symptomatic seizures occurred in 226 individuals (5%), of whom 8 (0.2%) presented with status epilepticus. In patients with acute symptomatic status epilepticus, 10-year mortality was 79% compared with 30% in those with short acute symptomatic seizures and 11% in those without seizures. The 10-year risk of epilepsy in stroke survivors with acute symptomatic status epilepticus was 81%, compared with 40% in survivors with short acute symptomatic seizures and 13% in survivors without seizures. In a replication cohort of 39 individuals with acute symptomatic status epilepticus after ischemic stroke (24 female; median age, 78 years), the 10-year risk of mortality and epilepsy was 76% and 88%, respectively. We updated a previously described prognostic model (SeLECT 2.0) with the type of acute symptomatic seizures as a covariate. SeLECT 2.0 successfully captured cases at high risk of poststroke epilepsy. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this study, individuals with stroke and acute symptomatic seizures presenting as status epilepticus had a higher mortality and risk of epilepsy compared with those with short acute symptomatic seizures or no seizures. The SeLECT 2.0 prognostic model adequately reflected the risk of epilepsy in high-risk cases and may inform decisions on the continuation of antiseizure medication treatment and the methods and frequency of follow-up

Measurement of the Tau Lepton Polarisation at LEP2

A first measurement of the average polarisation P_tau of tau leptons produced in e+e- annihilation at energies significantly above the Z resonance is presented. The polarisation is determined from the kinematic spectra of tau hadronic decays. The measured value P_tau = -0.164 +/- 0.125 is consistent with the Standard Model prediction for the mean LEP energy of 197 GeV.A first measurement of the average polarisation Pτ of tau leptons produced in e + e − annihilation at energies significantly above the Z resonance is presented. The polarisation is determined from the kinematic spectra of tau hadronic decays. The measured value Pτ=−0.164±0.125 is consistent with the Standard Model prediction for the mean LEP energy of 197 GeV.A first measurement of the average polarisation P_tau of tau leptons produced in e+e- annihilation at energies significantly above the Z resonance is presented. The polarisation is determined from the kinematic spectra of tau hadronic decays. The measured value P_tau = -0.164 +/- 0.125 is consistent with the Standard Model prediction for the mean LEP energy of 197 GeV

Measurements of the leptonic branching fractions of the τ\tau

Data collected with the DELPHI detector from 1993 to 1995 combined with previous DELPHI results for data from 1991 and 1992 yield the branching fractions B({\tau \rightarrow \mbox{\rm e} \nu \bar{\nu}}) = (17.877 \pm 0.109_{stat} \pm 0.110_{sys} )\% and $B({\tau \rightarrow \mu \nu \bar{\nu}}) = (17.325 \pm 0.095_{stat} \pm 0.077_{sys} )\%$