Predicting Transmission Suitability of Mosquito-Borne Diseases under Climate Change to Underpin Decision Making

The risk of the mosquito-borne diseases malaria, dengue fever and Zika virus is expected to shift both temporally and spatially under climate change. As climate change projections continue to improve, our ability to predict these shifts is also enhanced. This paper predicts transmission suitability for these mosquito-borne diseases, which are three of the most significant, using the most up-to-date climate change projections. Using a mechanistic methodology, areas that are newly suitable and those where people are most at risk of transmission under the best- and worst-case climate change scenarios have been identified. The results show that although transmission suitability is expected to decrease overall for malaria, some areas will become newly suitable, putting naïve populations at risk. In contrast, transmission suitability for dengue fever and Zika virus is expected to increase both in duration and geographical extent. Although transmission suitability is expected to increase in temperate zones for a few months of the year, suitability remains focused in the tropics. The highest transmission suitability in tropical regions is likely to exacerbate the intense existing vulnerability of these populations, especially children, to the multiple consequences of climate change, and their severe lack of resources and agency to cope with these impacts and pressures. As these changes in transmission suitability are amplified under the worst-case climate change scenario, this paper makes the case in support of enhanced and more urgent efforts to mitigate climate change than has been achieved to date. By presenting consistent data on the climate-driven spread of multiple mosquito-borne diseases, our work provides more holistic information to underpin prevention and control planning and decision making at national and regional levels

Different Observational Methods and the Detection of Seasonal and Atlantic Influence Upon Phytoplankton Communities in the Western Barents Sea

Phytoplankton community composition, and its dependency on environmental variation, are key to understanding marine primary production, processes of trophic transfer and the role of marine phytoplankton in global biogeochemical cycles. Understanding changes in phytoplankton community composition on Arctic shelves is important, because these productive environments are experiencing rapid change. Many different methods have been employed by researchers to quantify phytoplankton community composition. Previous studies have demonstrated that the way in which community composition is quantified can influence the interpretation of environmental dependencies. Researchers must consider both the suitability of the data they collect for monitoring marine ecosystems, as well as the research effort required to collect representative datasets. We therefore seek to understand how the representation of phytoplankton community structure in the western Barents Sea, a rapidly changing Arctic shelf sea, influences the interpretation of environmental dependencies. We compare datasets of cell counts, phytoplankton pigments and bio-optics (absorption spectra), relating them to a suite of environmental conditions with multivariate exploratory analyses. We show that, while cell counts reveal the greatest insight into environmental dependencies, pigment and absorption spectral datasets still provide useful information about seasonal succession and the influence of Atlantic water masses– two key subjects of great research interest in this region. As pigments and optical properties influence remotely-sensed ocean-colour, these findings hold implications for remote detection of phytoplankton community composition

Variability and change in the west Antarctic Peninsula marine system: Research priorities and opportunities

The west Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) region has undergone significant changes in temperature and seasonal ice dynamics since the mid-twentieth century, with strong impacts on the regional ecosystem, ocean chemistry and hydrographic properties. Changes to these long-term trends of warming and sea ice decline have been observed in the 21st century, but their consequences for ocean physics, chemistry and the ecology of the high-productivity shelf ecosystem are yet to be fully established. The WAP shelf is important for regional krill stocks and higher trophic levels, whilst the degree of variability and change in the physical environment and documented biological and biogeochemical responses make this a model system for how climate and sea ice changes might restructure high-latitude ecosystems. Although this region is arguably the best-measured and best-understood shelf region around Antarctica, significant gaps remain in spatial and temporal data capable of resolving the atmosphere-ice-ocean-ecosystem feedbacks that control the dynamics and evolution of this complex polar system. Here we summarise the current state of knowledge regarding the key mechanisms and interactions regulating the physical, biogeochemical and biological processes at work, the ways in which the shelf environment is changing, and the ecosystem response to the changes underway. We outline the overarching cross-disciplinary priorities for future research, as well as the most important discipline-specific objectives. Underpinning these priorities and objectives is the need to better define the causes, magnitude and timescales of variability and change at all levels of the system. A combination of traditional and innovative approaches will be critical to addressing these priorities and developing a co-ordinated observing system for the WAP shelf, which is required to detect and elucidate change into the future

A polar surface eddy obscured by thermal stratification

Mesoscale and submesoscale eddies play an important role in the distribution of heat and biogeochemical properties throughout the global oceans. Such eddies are important in the Arctic Ocean, particularly in the frontal regions, but are difficult to detect using traditional satellite‐based methods. Here we use high‐resolution in situ data from an underwater glider to identify a surface eddy that was masked from remote‐sensing observations. We hypothesize that this masking was driven by thermal stratification driven by surface heat fluxes. The eddy was likely generated north of the Polar Front, before crossing the front and traveling south. We estimate that the observed eddy contained 4 × 1010 m3 of Arctic Water. The observation of this eddy, masked in satellite observations of sea surface temperature, suggests a historical underestimation of the prevalence and importance of eddies in this key mixing region. The water column of the Barents Sea, one of the circumpolar Arctic seas has a seemingly simple structure. In the south, warm Atlantic Water dominates; in the north, cold Arctic Water dominates; while at their boundary, the Arctic Water overlies the Atlantic Water. In the summer, the Arctic Water is largely devoid of the nutrients required to fuel the growth of phytoplankton, which is key to maintaining life in the ocean. In contrast, the Atlantic Water is one of the primary sources of nutrient‐rich water into the Arctic. In this study, we have used an underwater robotic instrument to identify a patch of Arctic Water which has been shed from the Arctic sector of the Barents Sea into the Atlantic sector. This patch of water is seen to have lower phytoplankton concentrations than the surrounding water. Due to atmospheric heating of the surface, this patch would be indistinguishable from the surrounding Atlantic Water and so would be absent for satellite observations of sea surface temperature. We suggest that this temperature masking has meant that we have previously underestimated how much water is moved within these patches in the Arctic seas

Nitrate supply and uptake in the Atlantic Arctic sea ice zone: seasonal cycle, mechanisms and drivers

Nutrient supply to the surface ocean is a key factor regulating primary production in the Arctic Ocean under current conditions and with ongoing warming and sea ice losses. Here we present seasonal nitrate concentration and hydrographic data from two oceanographic moorings on the northern Barents shelf between autumn 2017 and summer 2018. The eastern mooring was sea ice-covered to varying degrees during autumn, winter and spring, and was characterized by more Arctic-like oceanographic conditions, while the western mooring was ice-free year-round and showed a greater influence of Atlantic water masses. The seasonal cycle in nitrate dynamics was similar under ice-influenced and ice-free conditions, with biological nitrate uptake beginning near-synchronously in early May, but important differences between the moorings were observed. Nitrate supply to the surface ocean preceding and during the period of rapid drawdown was greater at the ice-free more Atlantic-like western mooring, and nitrate drawdown occurred more slowly over a longer period of time. This suggests that with ongoing sea ice losses and Atlantification, the expected shift from more Arctic-like ice-influenced conditions to more Atlantic-like ice-free conditions is likely to increase nutrient availability and the duration of seasonal drawdown in this Arctic shelf region. The extent to which this increased nutrient availability and longer drawdown periods will lead to increases in total nitrate uptake, and support the projected increases in primary production, will depend on changes in upper ocean stratification and their effect on light availability to phytoplankton as changes in climate and the physical environment proceed. This article is part of the theme issue 'The changing Arctic Ocean: consequences for biological communities, biogeochemical processes and ecosystem functioning'

Macronutrient and carbon supply, uptake and cycling across the Antarctic Peninsi shelf during summer

The West Antarctic Peninsula shelf is a region of high seasonal primary production which supports a large and productive food web, where macronutrients and inorganic carbon are sourced primarily from intrusions of warm saline Circumpolar Deep Water. We examined the cross-shelf modification of this water mass during mid-summer 2015 to understand the supply of nutrients and carbon to the productive surface ocean, and their subsequent uptake and cycling. We show that nitrate, phosphate, silicic acid and inorganic carbon are progressively enriched in subsurface waters across the shelf, contrary to cross-shelf reductions in heat, salinity and density. We use nutrient stoichiometric and isotopic approaches to invoke remineralization of organic matter, including nitrification below the euphotic surface layer, and dissolution of biogenic silica in deeper waters and potentially shelf sediment porewaters, as the primary drivers of cross-shelf enrichments. Regenerated nitrate and phosphate account for a significant proportion of the total pools of these nutrients in the upper ocean, with implications for the seasonal carbon sink. Understanding nutrient and carbon dynamics in this region now will inform predictions of future biogeochemical changes in the context of substantial variability and ongoing changes in the physical environment

Spatiotemporal variability of dissolved inorganic macronutrients along the northern Antarctic Peninsula (1996–2019)

The northern Antarctic Peninsula is a key region of the Southern Ocean due to its complex ocean dynamics, distinct water mass sources, and the climate-driven changes taking place in the region. Despite the importance of macronutrients in supporting strong biological carbon uptake and storage, little is known about their spatiotemporal variability along the northern Antarctic Peninsula. Hence, we explored for the first time a 24-year time series (1996–2019) in this region to understand the processes involved in the spatial and interannual variability of macronutrients. We found high macronutrient concentrations, even in surface waters and during strong phytoplankton blooms. Minimum concentrations of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN; 16 μmol kg−1), phosphate (0.7 μmol kg−1), and silicic acid (40 μmol kg−1) in surface waters are higher than those recorded in surrounding regions. The main source of macronutrients is the intrusions of Circumpolar Deep Water and its modified variety, while local sources (organic matter remineralization, water mass mixing, and mesoscale structures) can enhance their spatiotemporal variability. However, we identified a depletion in silicic acid due to the influence of Dense Shelf Water from the Weddell Sea. Macronutrient concentrations show substantial interannual variability driven by the balance between the intrusions of modified Circumpolar Deep Water and advection of Dense Shelf Water, which is largely modulated by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and to some extent by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). These findings are critical to improving our understanding of the natural variability of this Southern Ocean ecosystem and how it is responding to climate changes

Silica cycling and isotopic composition in northern Marguerite Bay on the rapidly-warming western Antarctic Peninsula

The Southern Ocean is a key region for silica (Si) cycling, and the isotopic signatures established here influence the rest of the world's oceans. The climate and ecosystem of the Southern Ocean are changing rapidly, with the potential to impact Si cycling and isotope dynamics. This study examines high-resolution time-series dataset of dissolved Si concentrations and isotopic signatures, particulate Si concentrations and diatom speciation at a coastal site on the western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP), in order to characterise changes in Si cycling with respect to changes occurring in productivity and diatom assemblages. Dissolved and particulate Si phases reflect the dominant control of biological uptake, and combined with isotopic fractionation were consistent with a season of low/intermediate productivity. Biogenic Si is tightly coupled to both chlorophyll and particulate organic carbon at the sampling site, consistent with diatom-dominated phytoplankton assemblages along the WAP. Variability in diatom speciation has a negligible impact on the isotopic signature of dissolved Si in surface waters, although this is unlikely to hold for sediments due to differential dissolution of diatom species. A continued decline in diatom productivity along the WAP would likely result in an increasing unused Si inventory, which can potentially feed back into Si-limited areas, promoting diatom growth and carbon drawdown further afield