Limits to growth of forest biomass carbon sink under climate change.

Widely recognized as a significant carbon sink, North American forests have experienced a history of recovery and are facing an uncertain future. This growing carbon sink is dictated by recovery from land-use change, with growth trajectory modified by environmental change. To address both processes, we compiled a forest inventory dataset from North America to quantify aboveground biomass growth with stand age across forest types and climate gradients. Here we show, the biomass grows from 90 Mg ha-1 (2000-2016) to 105 Mg ha-1 (2020 s), 128 Mg ha-1 (2050 s), and 146 Mg ha-1 (2080 s) under climate change scenarios with no further disturbances. Climate change modifies the forest recovery trajectory to some extent, but the overall growth is limited, showing signs of biomass saturation. The future (2080s) biomass will only sequester at most 22% more carbon than the current level. Given such a strong sink has limited growth potential, our ground-based analysis suggests policy changes to sustain the carbon sink

Transpiration Dominates Ecosystem Water‐Use Efficiency in Response to Warming in an Alpine Meadow

As a key linkage of C and water cycles, water‐use efficiency (WUE) quantifies how much water an ecosystem uses for carbon gain. Although ecosystem C and water fluxes have been intensively studied, yet it remains unclear how ecosystem WUE responds to climate warming and which processes dominate the response of WUE. To answer these questions, we examined canopy WUE (WUEc), ecosystem WUE (WUEe) and their components including gross ecosystem productivity, ecosystem evapotranspiration (ET), soil evaporation (E), and plant canopy transpiration (T), in response to warming in an alpine meadow by using a manipulative warming experiment in 2015 and 2016. As expected, low‐ and high‐level warming treatments increased soil temperature (Tsoil) at 10 cm on average by 1.65 and 2.77°C, but decreased soil moisture (Msoil) by 2.52 and 7.6 vol %, respectively, across the two years. Low‐ and high‐level warming increased WUEe by 7.7 and 9.3% over the two years, but rarely changed WUEc in either year. T/ET ratio determined the differential responses of WUEc and WUEe. Larger T/ET led to less difference between WUEc and WUEe. By partitioning WUEc and WUEe into different carbon and water fluxes, we found that T rather than gross ecosystem productivity or E dominated the responses of WUEc and WUEe to warming. This study provides empirical insights into how ecosystem WUE responds to warming and illustrates the importance of plant transpiration in regulating ecosystem WUE under future climate change

The effect of warming on grassland evapotranspiration partitioning using laser-based isotope monitoring techniques

Author's manuscript made available in accordance with the publisher's policy.The proportion of transpiration (T) in total evapotranspiration (ET) is an important parameter that provides insight into the degree of biological influence on the hydrological cycles. Studies addressing the effects of climatic warming on the ecosystem total water balance are scarce, and measured warming effects on the T/ET ratio in field experiments have not been seen in the literature. In this study, we quantified T/ET ratios under ambient and warming treatments in a grassland ecosystem using a stable isotope approach. The measurements were made at a long-term grassland warming site in Oklahoma during the May–June peak growing season of 2011. Chamber-based methods were used to estimate the δ2H isotopic composition of evaporation (δE), transpiration (δT) and the aggregated evapotranspiration (δET). A modified commercial conifer leaf chamber was used for δT, a modified commercial soil chamber was used for δE and a custom built chamber was used for δET. The δE, δET and δT were quantified using both the Keeling plot approach and a mass balance method, with the Craig–Gordon model approach also used to calculate δE. Multiple methods demonstrated no significant difference between control and warming plots for both δET and δT. Though the chamber-based estimates and the Craig–Gordon results diverged by about 12‰, all methods showed that δE was more depleted in the warming plots. This decrease in δE indicates that the evaporation flux as a percentage of total water flux necessarily decreased for δET to remain constant, which was confirmed by field observations. The T/ET ratio in the control treatment was 0.65 or 0.77 and the ratio found in the warming treatment was 0.83 or 0.86, based on the chamber method and the Craig–Gordon approach. Sensitivity analysis of the Craig–Gordon model demonstrates that the warming-induced decrease in soil liquid water isotopic composition is the major factor responsible for the observed δE depletion and the temperature dependent equilibrium effects are minor. Multiple lines of evidence indicate that the increased T/ET ratio under warming is caused mainly by reduced evaporation

Differential responses of carbon-degrading enzyme activities to warming: implications for soil respiration

Extracellular enzymes catalyze rate‐limiting steps in soil organic matter decomposi-tion, and their activities (EEAs) play a key role in determining soil respiration (SR).Both EEAs and SR are highly sensitive to temperature, but their responses to cli-mate warming remain poorly understood. Here, we present a meta‐analysis on theresponse of soil cellulase and ligninase activities and SR to warming, synthesizingdata from 56 studies. We found that warming significantly enhanced ligninase activ-ity by 21.4% but had no effect on cellulase activity. Increases in ligninase activitywere positively correlated with changes in SR, while no such relationship was foundfor cellulase. The warming response of ligninase activity was more closely related tothe responses of SR than a wide range of environmental and experimental method-ological factors. Furthermore, warming effects on ligninase activity increased withexperiment duration. These results suggest that soil microorganisms sustain long‐term increases in SR with warming by gradually increasing the degradation of therecalcitrant carbon pool

Evaluating Alternative Ebullition Models for Predicting Peatland Methane Emission and Its Pathways via Data–Model Fusion

Understanding the dynamics of peatland methane (CH4) emissions and quantifying sources of uncertainty in estimating peatland CH4 emissions are critical for mitigating climate change. The relative contributions of CH4 emission pathways through ebullition, plant-mediated transport, and diffusion, together with their different transport rates and vulnerability to oxidation, determine the quantity of CH4 to be oxidized before leaving the soil. Notwithstanding their importance, the relative contributions of the emission pathways are highly uncertain. In particular, the ebullition process is more uncertain and can lead to large uncertainties in modeled CH4 emissions. To improve model simulations of CH4 emission and its pathways, we evaluated two model structures: (1) the ebullition bubble growth volume threshold approach (EBG) and (2) the modified ebullition concentration threshold approach (ECT) using CH4 flux and concentration data collected in a peatland in northern Minnesota, USA. When model parameters were constrained using observed CH4 fluxes, the CH4 emissions simulated by the EBG approach (RMSE = 0.53) had a better agreement with observations than the ECT approach (RMSE = 0.61). Further, the EBG approach simulated a smaller contribution from ebullition but more frequent ebullition events than the ECT approach. The EBG approach yielded greatly improved simulations of pore water CH4 concentrations, especially in the deep soil layers, compared to the ECT approach. When constraining the EBG model with both CH4 flux and concentration data in model–data fusion, uncertainty of the modeled CH4 concentration profiles was reduced by 78 % to 86 % in comparison to constraints based on CH4 flux data alone. The improved model capability was attributed to the well-constrained parameters regulating the CH4 production and emission pathways. Our results suggest that the EBG modeling approach better characterizes CH4 emission and underlying mechanisms. Moreover, to achieve the best model results both CH4 flux and concentration data are required to constrain model parameterization

Evaluating Alternative Ebullition Models for Predicting Peatland Methane Emission and Its Pathways via Data–Model Fusion

Understanding the dynamics of peatland methane (CH4) emissions and quantifying sources of uncertainty in estimating peatland CH4 emissions are critical for mitigating climate change. The relative contributions of CH4 emission pathways through ebullition, plant-mediated transport, and diffusion, together with their different transport rates and vulnerability to oxidation, determine the quantity of CH4 to be oxidized before leaving the soil. Notwithstanding their importance, the relative contributions of the emission pathways are highly uncertain. In particular, the ebullition process is more uncertain and can lead to large uncertainties in modeled CH4 emissions. To improve model simulations of CH4 emission and its pathways, we evaluated two model structures: (1) the ebullition bubble growth volume threshold approach (EBG) and (2) the modified ebullition concentration threshold approach (ECT) using CH4 flux and concentration data collected in a peatland in northern Minnesota, USA. When model parameters were constrained using observed CH4 fluxes, the CH4 emissions simulated by the EBG approach (RMSE = 0.53) had a better agreement with observations than the ECT approach (RMSE = 0.61). Further, the EBG approach simulated a smaller contribution from ebullition but more frequent ebullition events than the ECT approach. The EBG approach yielded greatly improved simulations of pore water CH4 concentrations, especially in the deep soil layers, compared to the ECT approach. When constraining the EBG model with both CH4 flux and concentration data in model–data fusion, uncertainty of the modeled CH4 concentration profiles was reduced by 78 % to 86 % in comparison to constraints based on CH4 flux data alone. The improved model capability was attributed to the well-constrained parameters regulating the CH4 production and emission pathways. Our results suggest that the EBG modeling approach better characterizes CH4 emission and underlying mechanisms. Moreover, to achieve the best model results both CH4 flux and concentration data are required to constrain model parameterization

Evaluating alternative ebullition models for predicting peatland methane emission and its pathways via data–model fusion

Understanding the dynamics of peatland methane (CH4) emissions and quantifying sources of uncertainty in estimating peatland CH4 emissions are critical for mitigating climate change. The relative contributions of CH4 emission pathways through ebullition, plant-mediated transport, and diffusion, together with their different transport rates and vulnerability to oxidation, determine the quantity of CH4 to be oxidized before leaving the soil. Notwithstanding their importance, the relative contributions of the emission pathways are highly uncertain. In particular, the ebullition process is more uncertain and can lead to large uncertainties in modeled CH4 emissions. To improve model simulations of CH4 emission and its pathways, we evaluated two model structures: (1) the ebullition bubble growth volume threshold approach (EBG) and (2) the modified ebullition concentration threshold approach (ECT) using CH4 flux and concentration data collected in a peatland in northern Minnesota, USA. When model parameters were constrained using observed CH4 fluxes, the CH4 emissions simulated by the EBG approach (RMSE = 0.53) had a better agreement with observations than the ECT approach (RMSE = 0.61). Further, the EBG approach simulated a smaller contribution from ebullition but more frequent ebullition events than the ECT approach. The EBG approach yielded greatly improved simulations of pore water CH4 concentrations, especially in the deep soil layers, compared to the ECT approach. When constraining the EBG model with both CH4 flux and concentration data in model–data fusion, uncertainty of the modeled CH4 concentration profiles was reduced by 78 % to 86 % in comparison to constraints based on CH4 flux data alone. The improved model capability was attributed to the well-constrained parameters regulating the CH4 production and emission pathways. Our results suggest that the EBG modeling approach better characterizes CH4 emission and underlying mechanisms. Moreover, to achieve the best model results both CH4 flux and concentration data are required to constrain model parameterization

Direct and indirect effects of climatic variations on the interannual variability in net ecosystem exchange across terrestrial ecosystems

Climatic variables not only directly affect the interannual variability (IAV) in net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE) but also indirectly drive it by changing the physiological parameters. Identifying these direct and indirect paths can reveal the underlying mechanisms of carbon (C) dynamics. In this study, we applied a path analysis using flux data from 65 sites to quantify the direct and indirect climatic effects on IAV in NEE and to evaluate the potential relationships among the climatic variables and physiological parameters that represent physiology and phenology of ecosystems. We found that the maximum photosynthetic rate was the most important factor for the IAV in gross primary productivity (GPP), which was mainly induced by the variation in vapour pressure deficit. For ecosystem respiration (RE), the most important drivers were GPP and the reference respiratory rate. The biome type regulated the direct and indirect paths, with distinctive differences between forests and non-forests, evergreen needleleaf forests and deciduous broadleaf forests, and between grasslands and croplands. Different paths were also found among wet, moist and dry ecosystems. However, the climatic variables can only partly explain the IAV in physiological parameters, suggesting that the latter may also result from other biotic and disturbance factors. In addition, the climatic variables related to NEE were not necessarily the same as those related to GPP and RE, indicating the emerging difficulty encountered when studying the IAV in NEE. Overall, our results highlight the contribution of certain physiological parameters to the IAV in C fluxes and the importance of biome type and multi-year water conditions, which should receive more attention in future experimental and modelling research