Structural analysis of symmetrical penstock bifurcations by the finite element method

A need has existed for an in-depth structural analysis of penstock bifurcations because they form an integral part of hydroelectric power plants. Their geometrical complexity has prevented classical structural analysis from providing an accurate and overall picture of the stresses in the structure. Digital computers and the development of finite element methods have provided an alternative to past methods of analysis. A finite element solution is developed and described which treats the structure as a continuous entity. The basic finite element is a flat plate element which superimposes bending action and membrane action. It is classified as a mixed formulation and is derived from Reissner's principle. Convergence of the solution, with decreasing element size, is discussed. Verification of the basic formulation is established by comparing results for several simple structures for which classical solutions are available. Verification of the finite element model for penstock bifurcations is established by comparison with experimental data obtained from a prototype bifurcation. Application of the finite element solution is made to a penstock bifurcation which is currently being designed for the Lost Creek project on the Rogue River in southern Oregon. Results of this analysis are presented and discussed. The computer program was developed so that it can be applied to most symmetrical penstock bifurcations. Included in the Appendices are a user's manual, program description, and program listing

‘Boundary’: Mapping and Visualizing Climatically Changed Landscapes at Kaskawulsh Glacier and Kluane Lake, Yukon

This paper describes a collaboration between a visual artist and geoscientists, who together viewed the same rugged, high mountain landscape through different, yet complementary, lenses. We pair scientific mapping and historic comparative photography with a series of site-specific sculptural installations to interpret the dramatic geological changes that occurred at Kaskawulsh Glacier, Yukon, in the spring of 2016. In the summer of that year, artist K.A. Colorado accompanied geoscientists D.H. Shugar, J.J. Clague, and J.L. Best to the terminus of Kaskawulsh Glacier, as well as Kluane Lake downstream of the glacier, to document the landscape changes that occurred earlier in the year. The Boundary images were created as on-site, three-dimensional, artistic interpretations of the markedly changed boundaries that occurred as a result of climate-induced glacier retreat and the sudden subcontinental-scale reorganization of drainage. Both the scientific study conducted by the geomorphologists and the art installations created by the artist were performed simultaneously. The Boundary installation art project, together with satellite imagery and historical photographs, conveys the death of Slims River as a result of climate change

Geomorphic and geologic controls of geohazards induced by Nepal’s 2015 Gorkha earthquake

The Gorkha earthquake (M 7.8) on 25 April 2015 and later aftershocks struck South Asia, killing ~9,000 and damaging a large region. Supported by a large campaign of responsive satellite data acquisitions over the earthquake disaster zone, our team undertook a satellite image survey of the earthquakes’ induced geohazards in Nepal and China and an assessment of the geomorphic, tectonic, and lithologic controls on quake-induced landslides. Timely analysis and communication aided response and recovery and informed decision makers. We mapped 4,312 co-seismic and post-seismic landslides. We also surveyed 491 glacier lakes for earthquake damage, but found only 9 landslide-impacted lakes and no visible satellite evidence of outbursts. Landslide densities correlate with slope, peak ground acceleration, surface downdrop, and specific metamorphic lithologies and large plutonic intrusions

Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from EGU via the DOI in this recordThe published version, as published in The Cryosphere, is in ORE: http://hdl.handle.net/10871/32433Despite recent research identifying a clear anthropogenic impact on glacier recession, the effect of recent climate change on glacier-related hazards is at present unclear. Here we present the first global spatio-temporal assessment of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) focusing explicitly on lake drainage following moraine dam failure. These floods occur as mountain glaciers recede and downwaste and many have an enormous impact on downstream communities and infrastructure. Our assessment of GLOFs associated with the collapse of moraine-dammed lakes provides insights into the historical trends of GLOFs and their distributions under current and future global climate change. We observe a clear global increase in GLOF frequency and their regularity around 1930, which likely represents a lagged response to post-Little Ice Age warming. Notably, we also show that GLOF frequency and their regularity – rather unexpectedly – has declined in recent decades even during a time of rapid glacier recession. Although previous studies have suggested that GLOFs will increase in response to climate warming and glacier recession, our global results demonstrate that this has not yet clearly happened. From assessment of the timing of climate forcing, lag times in glacier recession, lake formation and moraine dam failure, we predict increased GLOF frequencies during the next decades and into the 22nd century.SH was funded by a Leverhulme Research Fellowship. SH, RAB and AW acknowledge funding under the HELIX (European Union Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013 under grant agreement n° 603864). AW and RAB acknowledge funding from the Joint UK DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101)

Climate Change and the Global Pattern of Moraine-Dammed Glacial Lake Outburst Floods

Despite recent research identifying a clear anthropogenic impact on glacier recession, the effect of recent climate change on glacier-related hazards is at present unclear. Here we present the first global spatio-temporal assessment of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) focusing explicitly on lake drainage following moraine dam failure. These floods occur as mountain glaciers recede and downwaste. GLOFs can have an enormous impact on downstream communities and infrastructure. Our assessment of GLOFs associated with the rapid drainage of moraine-dammed lakes provides insights into the historical trends of GLOFs and their distributions under current and future global climate change. We observe a clear global increase in GLOF frequency and their regularity around 1930, which likely represents a lagged response to post-Little Ice Age warming. Notably, we also show that GLOF frequency and regularity – rather unexpectedly – have declined in recent decades even during a time of rapid glacier recession. Although previous studies have suggested that GLOFs will increase in response to climate warming and glacier recession, our global results demonstrate that this has not yet clearly happened. From an assessment of the timing of climate forcing, lag times in glacier recession, lake formation and moraine-dam failure, we predict increased GLOF frequencies during the next decades and into the 22nd century

Lisht as a New Kingdom glass-making site with its own chemical signature

Lisht is one of a few New Kingdom sites with known glass-working debris. Here, we present evidence for the primary production of glass at Lisht, including crucible fragments and semi-finished glass. We also provide 12 new chemical analyses of glass from Lisht, including trace elements. We argue that the glass made at Lisht has a specific chemical signature within the broader range of Late Bronze Age glass compositions from Egypt, further underlining the former existence of primary glass production there and offering the possibility of identifying Lisht-made glass elsewhere in Egypt and beyond

Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from EGU via the DOI in this recordThe published version, as published in The Cryosphere, is in ORE: http://hdl.handle.net/10871/32433Despite recent research identifying a clear anthropogenic impact on glacier recession, the effect of recent climate change on glacier-related hazards is at present unclear. Here we present the first global spatio-temporal assessment of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) focusing explicitly on lake drainage following moraine dam failure. These floods occur as mountain glaciers recede and downwaste and many have an enormous impact on downstream communities and infrastructure. Our assessment of GLOFs associated with the collapse of moraine-dammed lakes provides insights into the historical trends of GLOFs and their distributions under current and future global climate change. We observe a clear global increase in GLOF frequency and their regularity around 1930, which likely represents a lagged response to post-Little Ice Age warming. Notably, we also show that GLOF frequency and their regularity – rather unexpectedly – has declined in recent decades even during a time of rapid glacier recession. Although previous studies have suggested that GLOFs will increase in response to climate warming and glacier recession, our global results demonstrate that this has not yet clearly happened. From assessment of the timing of climate forcing, lag times in glacier recession, lake formation and moraine dam failure, we predict increased GLOF frequencies during the next decades and into the 22nd century.SH was funded by a Leverhulme Research Fellowship. SH, RAB and AW acknowledge funding under the HELIX (European Union Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013 under grant agreement n° 603864). AW and RAB acknowledge funding from the Joint UK DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101)

Topographic Control on Ground Motions and Landslides From the 2015 Gorkha Earthquake

Landslides triggered by earthquake shaking pose a significant hazard in active mountain regions. Steep topography promotes gravitational instabilities and can amplify the seismic wavefield; however, the relationship between topographic amplification and landsliding is poorly understood. Here, we use numerical methods to investigate the link between low-frequency ground shaking, topographic amplification, and the landslide distribution from the 2015 Gorkha, Nepal earthquake. Results show that the largest landslides initiated where the highest topographic amplification, highest elevations, and steepest slopes converged, typically in glacially-sculpted terrain, with additional controls of rock strength and absolute ground motions. Additionally, the initiation of the largest and most fatal landslide was likely influenced by amplification throughout the rupture due the orientation of the ridge with respect to the propagating wavefield. These results indicate that topographic amplification is one of the key factors for understanding where large and potentially devastating landslides are likely to occur during future major earthquakes

Climate Change and the Global Pattern of Moraine-Dammed Glacial Lake Outburst Floods

Despite recent research identifying a clear anthropogenic impact on glacier recession, the effect of recent climate change on glacier-related hazards is at present unclear. Here we present the first global spatio-temporal assessment of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) focusing explicitly on lake drainage following moraine dam failure. These floods occur as mountain glaciers recede and downwaste. GLOFs can have an enormous impact on downstream communities and infrastructure. Our assessment of GLOFs associated with the rapid drainage of moraine-dammed lakes provides insights into the historical trends of GLOFs and their distributions under current and future global climate change. We observe a clear global increase in GLOF frequency and their regularity around 1930, which likely represents a lagged response to post-Little Ice Age warming. Notably, we also show that GLOF frequency and regularity – rather unexpectedly – have declined in recent decades even during a time of rapid glacier recession. Although previous studies have suggested that GLOFs will increase in response to climate warming and glacier recession, our global results demonstrate that this has not yet clearly happened. From an assessment of the timing of climate forcing, lag times in glacier recession, lake formation and moraine-dam failure, we predict increased GLOF frequencies during the next decades and into the 22nd century