Gold as a Financial Instrument

In this paper, we explore the effectiveness of gold as a hedging and safe haven instrument for a variety of market risks. Rather than confining the analysis to specific countries, we treat gold as a global asset and apply the novel Phillips, Shi and Yu (2015a,b) methodology to identify extreme price movements. This method accounts for both the level and speed of changes in price dynamics that better characterises periods of abnormally high risks. We find that gold is a strong safe haven for stock, European sovereign, and oil inflation market risks. We also show that gold is a strong hedge to inflationary and currency risks. We demonstrate that gold had exhibited safe haven properties during the 2020 Covid-19 crisis, and highlight the importance of considering explosive behaviour in identifying periods of risk

The SOFIA Massive (SOMA) Star Formation Survey. I. Overview and First Results

We present an overview and first results of the Stratospheric Observatory For Infrared Astronomy Massive (SOMA) Star Formation Survey, which is using the FORCAST instrument to image massive protostars from $\sim10$--$40\:\rm{\mu}\rm{m}$. These wavelengths trace thermal emission from warm dust, which in Core Accretion models mainly emerges from the inner regions of protostellar outflow cavities. Dust in dense core envelopes also imprints characteristic extinction patterns at these wavelengths, causing intensity peaks to shift along the outflow axis and profiles to become more symmetric at longer wavelengths. We present observational results for the first eight protostars in the survey, i.e., multiwavelength images, including some ancillary ground-based MIR observations and archival {\it{Spitzer}} and {\it{Herschel}} data. These images generally show extended MIR/FIR emission along directions consistent with those of known outflows and with shorter wavelength peak flux positions displaced from the protostar along the blueshifted, near-facing sides, thus confirming qualitative predictions of Core Accretion models. We then compile spectral energy distributions and use these to derive protostellar properties by fitting theoretical radiative transfer models. Zhang and Tan models, based on the Turbulent Core Model of McKee and Tan, imply the sources have protostellar masses $m_*\sim10$--50$\:M_\odot$ accreting at $\sim10^{-4}$--$10^{-3}\:M_\odot\:{\rm{yr}}^{-1}$ inside cores of initial masses $M_c\sim30$--500$\:M_\odot$ embedded in clumps with mass surface densities $\Sigma_{\rm{cl}}\sim0.1$--3$\:{\rm{g\:cm}^{-2}}$. Fitting Robitaille et al. models typically leads to slightly higher protostellar masses, but with disk accretion rates $\sim100\times$ smaller. We discuss reasons for these differences and overall implications of these first survey results for massive star formation theories.Comment: Accepted to ApJ, 32 page

A Massive Protostar Forming by Ordered Collapse of a Dense, Massive Core

We present 30 and 40 micron imaging of the massive protostar G35.20-0.74 with SOFIA-FORCAST. The high surface density of the natal core around the protostar leads to high extinction, even at these relatively long wavelengths, causing the observed flux to be dominated by that emerging from the near-facing outflow cavity. However, emission from the far-facing cavity is still clearly detected. We combine these results with fluxes from the near-infrared to mm to construct a spectral energy distribution (SED). For isotropic emission the bolometric luminosity would be 3.3x10^4 Lsun. We perform radiative transfer modeling of a protostar forming by ordered, symmetric collapse from a massive core bounded by a clump with high mass surface density, Sigma_cl. To fit the SED requires protostellar masses ~20-34 Msun depending on the outflow cavity opening angle (35 - 50 degrees), and Sigma_cl ~ 0.4-1 g cm-2. After accounting for the foreground extinction and the flashlight effect, the true bolometric luminosity is ~ (0.7-2.2)x10^5 Lsun. One of these models also has excellent agreement with the observed intensity profiles along the outflow axis at 10, 18, 31 and 37 microns. Overall our results support a model of massive star formation involving the relatively ordered, symmetric collapse of a massive, dense core and the launching bipolar outflows that clear low density cavities. Thus a unified model may apply for the formation of both low and high mass stars.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures, 1 table, accepted to Ap

Pyrosequencing analysis of IRS1 methylation levels in schizophrenia with tardive dyskinesia

Tardive dyskinesia (TD) is a serious side effect of certain antipsychotic medications that are used to treat schizophrenia (SCZ) and other mental illnesses. The methylation status of the insulin receptor substrate 1 (IRS1) gene is reportedly associated with SCZ; however, no study, to the best of the authors\u27 knowledge, has focused on the quantitative DNA methylation levels of the IRS1 gene using pyrosequencing in SCZ with or without TD. The present study aimed to quantify DNA methylation levels of 4 CpG sites in the IRS1 gene using a Chinese sample including SCZ patients with TD and without TD (NTD) and healthy controls (HCs). The general linear model (GLM) was used to detect DNA methylation levels among the 3 proposed groups (TD vs. NTD vs. HC). Mean DNA methylation levels of 4 CpG sites demonstrated normal distribution. Pearson\u27s correlation analysis did not reveal any significant correlations between the DNA methylation levels of the 4 CpG sites and the severity of SCZ. GLM revealed significant differences between the 3 groups for CpG site 1 and the average of the 4 CpG sites (P=0.0001 and P=0.0126, respectively). Furthermore, the TD, NTD and TD + NTD groups demonstrated lower methylation levels in CpG site 1 (P=0.0003,

Quantitative DNA Methylation Analysis of DLGAP2 Gene Using Pyrosequencing in Schizophrenia With Tardive Dyskinesia: A Linear Mixed Model Approach

Tardive dyskinesia (TD) is a side effect of antipsychotic medications used to treat schizophrenia (SCZ) and other mental health disorders. No study has previously used pyrosequencing to quantify DNA methylation levels of the DLGAP2 gene; while the quantitative methylation levels among CpG sites within a gene may be correlated. To deal with the correlated measures among three CpG sites within the DLGAP2 gene, this study analyzed DNA methylation levels of the DLGAP2 gene using a linear mixed model (LMM) in a Chinese sample consisting of 35 SCZ patients with TD, 35 SCZ without TD (NTD) and 34 healthy controls (HCs) collected in Beijing, China. The initial analysis using the non-parametric Kruskal-Wallis test revealed that three groups (TD, NTD and HC) had significant differences in DNA methylation level for CpG site 2 (p = 0.0119). Furthermore, the average methylation levels among the three CpG sites showed strong correlations (all p values \u3c 0.0001). In addition, using the LMM, three groups had significant differences in methylation level (p = 0.0027); while TD, NTD and TD + NTD groups showed higher average methylation levels than the HC group (p = 0.0024, 0.0151, and 0.0007, respectively). In conclusion, the LMM can accommodate a covariance structure. The findings of this study provide first evidence of DNA methylation levels in DLGAP2 associated with SCZ with TD in Chinese population. However, TD just showed borderline significant differences to NTD in this study

History of Suicidal Behavior and Clozapine Prescribing Among People With Schizophrenia in China: A Cohort Study

BACKGROUND: Clozapine is an off-label drug used in most countries to prevent suicide in individuals with schizophrenia. However, few studies have reported real-world prescription practices. This study aimed to explore the association between a history of suicidal behavior and clozapine prescribing during eight weeks of hospitalization for individuals with early-stage schizophrenia. METHODS: This observational cohort study used routine health data collected from a mental health hospital in Beijing, China. The study included 1057 inpatients who had schizophrenia onset within 3 years. History of suicidal behavior was coded from reviewing medical notes according to the Columbia Suicide Severity Rating Scale. Information on antipsychotic use during hospitalization was extracted from the prescription records. Time to clozapine use was analyzed using Cox regression models adjusted for sociodemographic and clinical covariates. RESULTS: The prevalence rates of self-harm, suicidal behavior, and suicide attempt were 12.3%, 7.5%, and 5.4%, respectively. A history of self-harm history was positively associated with clozapine uses upon admission (4.1% vs. 0.8%, exact p = 0.009). Among those who had not used clozapine and had no clozapine contraindication, A history of suicidal behavior increased the possibility of switch to clozapine within 56 days after admission (Hazard Ratio[95% CI], 6.09[2.08-17.83]) or during hospitalization (4.18[1.62-10.78]). CONCLUSION: The use of clozapine for early-stage schizophrenia was more frequent among those with suicidal behavior than among those without suicidal behavior in China, although the drug instructions do not label its use for suicide risk

A Multi-Epoch Study of the Radio Continuum Emission of Orion Source I: Constraints on the Disk Evolution of a Massive YSO and the Dynamical History of Orion BN/KL

We present new 7mm continuum observations of Orion BN/KL with the VLA. We resolve the emission from the protostar radio Source I and BN at several epochs. Source I is highly elongated NW-SE, and remarkably stable in flux density, position angle, and overall morphology over nearly a decade. This favors the extended emission component arising from an ionized disk rather than a jet. We have measured the proper motions of Source I and BN for the first time at 43 GHz. We confirm that both sources are moving at high speed (12 and 26 km/s, respectively) approximately in opposite directions, as previously inferred from measurements at lower frequencies. We discuss dynamical scenarios that can explain the large motions of both BN and Source I and the presence of disks around both. Our new measurements support the hypothesis that a close (~50 AU) dynamical interaction occurred around 500 years ago between Source I and BN as proposed by Gomez et al. From the dynamics of encounter we argue that Source I today is likely to be a binary with a total mass on the order of 20 Msun, and that it probably existed as a softer binary before the close encounter. This enables preservation of the original accretion disk, though truncated to its present radius of ~50 AU. N-body numerical simulations show that the dynamical interaction between a binary of 20 Msun total mass (I) and a single star of 10 Msun mass (BN) may lead to the ejection of both and binary hardening. The gravitational energy released in the process would be large enough to power the wide-angle flow traced by H2 and CO emission in the BN/KL nebula. Assuming the proposed dynamical history is correct, the smaller mass for Source I recently estimated from SiO maser dynamics (>7 Msun) by Matthews et al., suggests that non-gravitational forces (e.g. magnetic) must play an important role in the circumstellar gas dynamics.Comment: 17 pages, 7 figures, 4 tables, accepted by Ap

CSF1R Regulates Schizophrenia-Related Stress Response and Vascular Association of Microglia/Macrophages

BACKGROUND: Microglia are known to regulate stress and anxiety in both humans and animal models. Psychosocial stress is the most common risk factor for the development of schizophrenia. However, how microglia/brain macrophages contribute to schizophrenia is not well established. We hypothesized that effector molecules expressed in microglia/macrophages were involved in schizophrenia via regulating stress susceptibility. METHODS: We recruited a cohort of first episode schizophrenia (FES) patients (n = 51) and age- and sex-paired healthy controls (HCs) (n = 46) with evaluated stress perception. We performed blood RNA-sequencing (RNA-seq) and brain magnetic resonance imaging, and measured plasma level of colony stimulating factor 1 receptor (CSF1R). Furthermore, we studied a mouse model of chronic unpredictable stress (CUS) combined with a CSF1R inhibitor (CSF1Ri) (n = 9 ~ 10/group) on anxiety behaviours and microglial biology. RESULTS: FES patients showed higher scores of perceived stress scale (PSS, p \u3c 0.05), lower blood CSF1R mRNA (FDR = 0.003) and protein (p \u3c 0.05) levels, and smaller volumes of the superior frontal gyrus and parahippocampal gyrus (both FDR \u3c 0.05) than HCs. In blood RNA-seq, CSF1R-associated differentially expressed blood genes were related to brain development. Importantly, CSF1R facilitated a negative association of the superior frontal gyrus with PSS (p \u3c 0.01) in HCs but not FES patients. In mouse CUS+CSF1Ri model, similarly as CUS, CSF1Ri enhanced anxiety (both p \u3c 0.001). Genes for brain angiogenesis and intensity of CD31 CONCLUSION: Microglial/macrophagic CSF1R regulated schizophrenia-associated stress and brain angiogenesis

Disk and outflow signatures in Orion-KL: The power of high-resolution thermal infrared spectroscopy

We used the CRIRES spectrograph on the VLT to study the ro-vibrational 12CO/13CO, the Pfund beta and H2 emission between 4.59 and 4.72mu wavelengths toward the BN object, the disk candidate source n, and a proposed dust density enhancement IRC3. We detected CO absorption and emission features toward all three targets. Toward the BN object, the data partly confirm the results obtained more than 25 years ago by Scoville et al., however, we also identify several new features. While the blue-shifted absorption is likely due to outflowing gas, toward the BN object we detect CO in emission extending in diameter to ~3300AU. Although at the observational spectral resolution limit, the 13CO line width of that feature increases with energy levels, consistent with a disk origin. If one attributes the extended CO emission also to a disk origin, its extent is consistent with other massive disk candidates in the literature. For source n, we also find the blue-shifted CO absorption likely from an outflow. However, it also exhibits a narrower range of redshifted CO absorption and adjacent weak CO emission, consistent with infalling motions. We do not spatially resolve the emission for source n. For both sources we conduct a Boltzmann analysis of the 13CO absorption features and find temperatures between 100 and 160K, and H2 column densities of the order a few times 10^23cm^-2. The observational signatures from IRC3 are very different with only weak absorption against a much weaker continuum source. However, the CO emission is extended and shows wedge-like position velocity signatures consistent with jet-entrainment of molecular gas, potentially associated with the Orion-KL outflow system. We also present and discuss the Pfund beta and H2 emission in the region.Comment: 12 pages, 15 pages, accepted for A&A, you find a high-resolution copy at http://www.mpia-hd.mpg.de/homes/beuther/papers.htm