Spatial Analysis of Temporal Changes in the Pandemic of Severe Cassava Mosaic Disease in Northwestern Tanzania

Published online: 8 Sept 2017To improve understanding of the dynamics of the cassava mosaic disease (CMD) pandemic front, geospatial approaches were applied to the analysis of 3 years’ data obtained from a 2-by-2° (approximately 222-by-222 km) area of northwestern Tanzania. In total, 80 farmers’ fields were assessed in each of 2009, 2010, and 2011, with 20 evenly distributed fields per 1-by-1° quadrant. CMD-associated variables (CMD incidence, CMD severity, vector-borne CMD infection, and vector abundance) increased in magnitude from 2009 to 2010 but showed little change from 2010 to 2011. Increases occurred primarily in the two westernmost quadrants of the study area. A pandemic “front” was defined by determining the values of CMD incidence and whitefly abundance where predicted disease gradients were greatest. The pandemic-associated virus (East African cassava mosaic virus-Uganda) and vector genotype (Bemisia tabaci sub-Saharan Africa 1–subgroup 1) were both present within the area bounded by the CMD incidence front but both also occurred ahead of the front. The average speed and direction of movement of the CMD incidence front (22.9 km/year; southeast) and whitefly abundance front (46.6 km/year; southeast) were calculated, and production losses due to CMD were estimated to range from US$4.3 million to 12.2 million

A Review of the Mathematical Models for Brucellosis Infectiology and Control Strategies

This research article published by the Journal of Mathematics and Informatics Vol. 19, 2020Brucellosis is a zoonotic bacterial infection that can be acquired by humans from infected animals' meat, urine, body fluids, aborted materials, unpasteurized milk, and milk products or contaminated environment. Mathematical models for infectious diseases have been used as important tools in providing useful information regarding the transmission and effectiveness of the available control strategies. In this paper, a review of the available compartmental mathematical models for Brucellosis was done. The main purpose was to assess their structure, populations involved, the available control strategies and suitability in predicting the disease incidence and prevalence in different settings. Diversities have been observed in the reviewed mathematical models; some models incorporated seasonal variations in a single animal population, some ignored the contributions of the contaminated environment while others considered the cattle or sheep population only. Most of the models reviewed have not considered the contribution of wild animals in the dynamics of Brucellosis. Some models do not match the real situation in most affected areas like sub-Saharan African region and Asian countries where wild animals, cattle and small ruminants share grazing areas and water points. Thus, to avoid unreliable results, this review reveals the need to affirm and incorporate wild animals, livestock, humans and seasonal weather parameters in the spread of Brucellosis and in planning for its controls

Mathematical model for brucellosis transmission dynamics in livestock and human populations

This research article published by Communications in Mathematical Biology and Neuroscience, 2020Brucellosis is a contagious zoonotic infection caused by bacteria of genus brucella which affects humans and animals. The disease is of veterinary importance, public health concern and economic significance in both developed and developing countries. It is transmitted through direct or indirect contact with infected animals or their contaminated products. In this paper we formulate and analyze a deterministic mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of brucellosis. The model formulated incorporates contaminated environment to human, infected livestock to human, and human to human modes of transmission. The impacts of human treatment in controlling the spread of brucellosis in the human population is investigated. Both analytical and numerical solutions reveal that prolonged human treatment has a significant impact in reducing the spread of Brucellosis in human population only while elimination of the disease in domestic ruminants has promising results to both human and ruminants. Thus, brucellosis control strategies should always focus on elimination of the disease in domestic ruminant

Optimal Control Strategies for the Infectiology of Brucellosis

This research article published by Hindawi, 2020Brucellosis is a zoonotic infection caused by Gram-negative bacteria of genus Brucella. The disease is of public health, veterinary, and economic significance in most of the developed and developing countries. Direct contact between susceptible and infective animals or their contaminated products are the two major routes of the disease transmission. In this paper, we investigate the impacts of controls of livestock vaccination, gradual culling through slaughter of seropositive cattle and small ruminants, environmental hygiene and sanitation, and personal protection in humans on the transmission dynamics of Brucellosis. The necessary conditions for an optimal control problem are rigorously analyzed using Pontryagin’s maximum principle. The main ambition is to minimize the spread of brucellosis disease in the community as well as the costs of control strategies. Findings showed that the effective use of livestock vaccination, gradual culling through slaughter of seropositive cattle and small ruminants, environmental hygiene and sanitation, and personal protection in humans have a significant impact in minimizing the disease spread in livestock and human populations. Moreover, cost-effectiveness analysis of the controls showed that the combination of livestock vaccination, gradual culling through slaughter, environmental sanitation, and personal protection in humans has high impact and lower cost of prevention

Detection of peste des petits ruminants and concurrent secondary diseases in sheep and goats in Ngorongoro district, Tanzania

Small ruminants play an important role in the livelihoods of resource-constrained communities. This study was initiated because of a massive outbreak of a respiratory disease in sheep and goats in Loliondo area in Ngorongoro district of Arusha region in Tanzania in 2016. During flock examination, a total of 240 serum samples and 61 nasal swabs were collected. Antibodies to small ruminant morbillivirus, causative agent of peste des petits ruminants (PPR), were detected from sera using a competitive enzymelinked immunosorbent assay. A multiplex reverse transcription real-time polymerase chain reaction assay was used to detect four pathogens: small ruminant morbillivirus, Mycoplasma capricolum subspecies capripneumoniae, Pasteurella multocida, and Capripoxvirus from the nasal swabs. Overall seroprevalence of PPR was 74.6%, with all four pathogens detected from nasal swabs. Co-infections of small ruminant morbillivirus and Mycoplasma capricolum subspecies capripneumoniae, small ruminant morbillivirus and Capripoxvirus, small ruminant morbillivirus and Pasteurella multocida, and Mycoplasma capricolum subspecies capripneumoniae and Capripoxvirus were also detected. Presence of PPR and the other diseases in this study provided insight into the severity of the outbreak in sheep and goats in Ngorongoro district. Thus, laboratory confirmation is critical for prompt and appropriate interventions to be made for control of diseases in sheep and goats with similar clinical signs. The findings also call for research into development of combined vaccines targeting common diseases of small ruminants in Tanzania

Performance of HRP-2 based rapid diagnostic test for malaria and its variation with age in an area of intense malaria transmission in southern tanzania

BACKGROUND: The use of malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) has been widely advocated to improve Plasmodium falciparum diagnosis, especially in settings where quality microscopy is not available. RDTs based on the detection of histidine-rich protein 2 (HRP-2) can remain positive for several weeks after an infection is cured, due to the persistence of HRP-2 antigens. As a result, test specificity may vary between age groups with different prevalence of P. falciparum infection. METHODS: A community-based cross-sectional survey, carried out in southern Tanzania in July and August 2004, evaluated the performance of the Paracheck Pf in comparison with microscopy (number of P. falciparum parasites/200 leucocytes). A sample of 598 individuals living in an area of intense malaria transmission had demographic data collected before an RDT was performed. HRP-2 test sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were calculated and compared between distinct age groups, using microscopy as "gold standard". RESULTS: The overall malaria prevalence was 34.3% according to microscopy and 57.2% according to the HRP-2 test. The HRP-2 test had a sensitivity of 96.1%, a specificity of 63.1%, a positive predictive value of 57.6% and a negative predictive value of 96.9%. The test sensitivity was higher (ranging from 98% to 100%) amongst people less than 25 years of age, but decreased to 81.3% in older adults. The HRP-2 test specificity varied between age groups, ranging from 25% among children of five to nine years of age, to 73% among adults aged 25 or more. The test positive predictive value increased with malaria prevalence, while the negative predictive value was consistently high across age groups. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that the performance of HRP-2 tests in areas of intense malaria transmission varies by age and the prevalence of P. falciparum infection. The particularly low specificity among children will lead to the over-estimation of malaria infection prevalence in this group

Exploring local knowledge and perceptions on zoonoses among pastoralists in northern and eastern Tanzania

Background: Zoonoses account for the most commonly reported emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases in Sub-Saharan Africa. However, there is limited knowledge on how pastoral communities perceive zoonoses in relation to their livelihoods, culture and their wider ecology. This study was carried out to explore local knowledge and perceptions on zoonoses among pastoralists in Tanzania. Methodology and principal findings: This study involved pastoralists in Ngorongoro district in northern Tanzania and Kibaha and Bagamoyo districts in eastern Tanzania. Qualitative methods of focus group discussions, participatory epidemiology and interviews were used. A total of 223 people were involved in the study. Among the pastoralists, there was no specific term in their local language that describes zoonosis. Pastoralists from northern Tanzania possessed a higher understanding on the existence of a number of zoonoses than their eastern districts' counterparts. Understanding of zoonoses could be categorized into two broad groups: a local syndromic framework, whereby specific symptoms of a particular illness in humans concurred with symptoms in animals, and the biomedical framework, where a case definition is supported by diagnostic tests. Some pastoralists understand the possibility of some infections that could cross over to humans from animals but harm from these are generally tolerated and are not considered as threats. A number of social and cultural practices aimed at maintaining specific cultural functions including social cohesion and rites of passage involve animal products, which present zoonotic risk. Conclusions: These findings show how zoonoses are locally understood, and how epidemiology and biomedicine are shaping pastoralists perceptions to zoonoses. Evidence is needed to understand better the true burden and impact of zoonoses in these communities. More studies are needed that seek to clarify the common understanding of zoonoses that could be used to guide effective and locally relevant interventions. Such studies should consider in their approaches the pastoralists' wider social, cultural and economic set up

Assessing the degeneration of cassava under high-virus inoculum conditions in coastal Tanzania

Open Access Article; Published online: 19 Jul 2019Cassava brown streak disease (CBSD), caused by cassava brown streak ipomoviruses (CBSIs), has become the most debilitating biotic stress to cassava production in East and Central Africa. Lack of CBSD-resistant varieties has necessitated the search for alternative control measures. Most smallholder farmers reuse stems from previous crops for planting in the new season. Recycling planting material in this way can lead to “degeneration” owing to the compounding effects of disease. In this study, degeneration was defined as the increase in CBSD incidence and reduction in marketable root yield over time. An experiment was established to study the rates of degeneration in selected cassava varieties Chereko, KBH2002_135, Kipusa, Kizimbani, and Mkuranga1 and cultivars Kiroba and Kikombe under high-CBSD inoculum conditions in Bagamoyo, Tanzania from 2013 to 2017. The experiment was replicated across two seasons: the first planted during the long rains (Masika) between March and June and the second planted during the short rains (Vuli) between October and December. Mean abundance of the whitefly vector (Bemisia tabaci) was much greater during the Vuli season (>19 insects per plant) than the Masika season (<2 insects per plant). CBSD shoot symptoms occurred naturally and were observed only on Kikombe, Kiroba, and Kipusa. New materials had overall lower CBSD shoot incidences (1.5%) compared with recycled materials (6.9%) in Masika, although no significant differences were obvious in Vuli. However, Masika (8.7%) had an overall lower CBSD shoot incidence than Vuli (16.5%) in the varieties that had shoot symptoms. CBSD root incidences were higher in Vuli (10.3%) than Masika (4.4%), and root yields in Masika (29.4 t/ha) were significantly greater than those in Vuli (22.5 t/ha). The highest percentage of roots rendered unusable owing to CBSD was observed in Vuli. There was significantly higher unusable root incidence in recycled materials (3.7%) than in new materials (1.4%) in Masika but not in Vuli. Overall root yield was similar between recycled and new materials in either season. Significant reductions in root yield over the course of the experiment were observed both in Masika and Vuli, whereas changes in marketable yield were significant only in Masika. Differences in the response of varieties to degeneration led to the identification of four degeneration patterns, namely “strong,” “moderate,” “mild,” and “delayed” degeneration. The strongest effects of degeneration were most obvious in the susceptible cultivar (Kikombe), which also had the lowest marketable yield in either season. Seasonal differences were a key driver of degeneration, because its effects were much greater in Vuli than Masika. To the best of our knowledge, this work reports the first study of degeneration caused by cassava viruses

Livestock movement informs the risk of disease spread in traditional production systems in East Africa

In Africa, livestock are important to local and national economies, but their productivity is constrained by infectious diseases. Comprehensive information on livestock movements and contacts is required to devise appropriate disease control strategies; yet, understanding contact risk in systems where herds mix extensively, and where different pathogens can be transmitted at different spatial and temporal scales, remains a major challenge. We deployed Global Positioning System collars on cattle in 52 herds in a traditional agropastoral system in western Serengeti, Tanzania, to understand fine-scale movements and between-herd contacts, and to identify locations of greatest interaction between herds. We examined contact across spatiotemporal scales relevant to different disease transmission scenarios. Daily cattle movements increased with herd size and rainfall. Generally, contact between herds was greatest away from households, during periods with low rainfall and in locations close to dipping points. We demonstrate how movements and contacts affect the risk of disease spread. For example, transmission risk is relatively sensitive to the survival time of different pathogens in the environment, and less sensitive to transmission distance, at least over the range of the spatiotemporal definitions of contacts that we explored. We identify times and locations of greatest disease transmission potential and that could be targeted through tailored control strategies