A Lagrangian analysis of ice-supersaturated air over the North Atlantic

Understanding the nature of air parcels that exhibit ice-supersaturation is important because they are the regions of potential formation of both cirrus and aircraft contrails, which affect the radiation balance. Ice-supersaturated air parcels in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere over the North Atlantic are investigated using Lagrangian trajectories. The trajectory calculations use ERA-Interim data for three winter and three summer seasons, resulting in approximately 200,000 trajectories with ice-supersaturation for each season. For both summer and winter, the median duration of ice-supersaturation along a trajectory is less than 6 hours. 5% of air which becomes ice-supersaturated in the troposphere, and 23% of air which becomes ice-supersaturated in the stratosphere will remain ice-supersaturated for at least 24 hours. Weighting the ice-supersaturation duration with the observed frequency indicates the likely overall importance of the longer duration ice-supersaturated trajectories. Ice-supersaturated air parcels typically experience a decrease in moisture content while ice-supersaturated, suggesting that cirrus clouds eventually form in the majority of such air. A comparison is made between short-lived (less than 24 h) and long-lived (greater than 24 h) ice-supersaturated air flows. For both air flows, ice-supersaturation occurs around the northernmost part of the trajectory. Short-lived ice-supersaturated air flows show no significant differences in speed or direction of movement to subsaturated air parcels. However, long-lived ice-supersaturated air occurs in slower moving air flows, which implies that they are not associated with the fastest moving air through a jet stream

The contribution of greenhouse gases to the recent slowdown in global-mean temperature trends

The recent slowdown in the rate of increase in global-mean surface temperature (GMST) has generated extensive discussion, but little attention has been given to the contribution of time-varying trends in greenhouse gas concentrations. We use a simple model approach to quantify this contribution. Between 1985 and 2003, greenhouse gases (including well-mixed greenhouse gases, tropospheric and stratospheric ozone, and stratospheric water vapour from methane oxidation) caused a reduction in GMST trend of around 0.03–0.05 K decade−1 which is around 18%–25% of the observed trend over that period. The main contributors to this reduction are the rapid change in the growth rates of ozone-depleting gases (with this contribution slightly opposed by stratospheric ozone depletion itself) and the weakening in growth rates of methane and tropospheric ozone radiative forcing. Although CO2 is the dominant greenhouse gas contributor to GMST trends, the continued increase in CO2 concentrations offsets only about 30% of the simulated trend reduction due to these other contributors. These results emphasize that trends in non-CO2 greenhouse gas concentrations can make significant positive and negative contributions to changes in the rate of warming, and that they need to be considered more closely in analyses of the causes of such variations

THE EFFECT OF INDIVIDUALISED COACHING INTERVENTIONS ON ELITE YOUNG FAST BOWLERS‘ TECHNIQUE

Fast bowling in cricket is an activity well recognised as having a high injury prevalence. Previous research has associated lower back injury with aspects of fast bowling technique. Coaching interventions that may decrease the likelihood of injury, whilst maintaining or increasing ball speed, remain a priority within the sport. Selected kinematics of the bowling action of 14 elite young fast bowlers were measured using an 18 camera Vicon Motion Analysis System. Subjects were tested before and after a two year coaching intervention period, during which subject-specific coaching interventions were provided. Mann-Whitney tests were used to identify significant differences in the change in the selected kinematics between those bowlers who were coached or un-coached on each specific aspect. Coached athletes demonstrated a significant change in shoulder alignment at back foot contact (more side-on, P = 0.002) and shoulder counter-rotation (decreased, P = 0.001) relative to un-coached athletes. There was no difference in the amount of change in flexion angles of the front or back knee or lower trunk side-flexion between those who received coaching intervention and those that did not. This study shows that specific aspects of fast bowling technique in elite players can change over a two year period and may be attributed to coaching intervention

Regional emission metrics for short-lived climate forcers from multiple models

For short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), the impact of emissions depends on where and when the emissions take place. Comprehensive new calculations of various emission metrics for SLCFs are presented based on radiative forcing (RF) values calculated in four different (chemical-transport or coupled chemistry–climate) models. We distinguish between emissions during summer (May–October) and winter (November–April) for emissions in Europe and East Asia, as well as from the global shipping sector and global emissions. The species included in this study are aerosols and aerosol precursors (BC, OC, SO2, NH3), as well as ozone precursors (NOx, CO, VOCs), which also influence aerosols to a lesser degree. Emission metrics for global climate responses of these emissions, as well as for CH4, have been calculated using global warming potential (GWP) and global temperature change potential (GTP), based on dedicated RF simulations by four global models. The emission metrics include indirect cloud effects of aerosols and the semi-direct forcing for BC. In addition to the standard emission metrics for pulse and sustained emissions, we have also calculated a new emission metric designed for an emission profile consisting of a ramping period of 15 years followed by sustained emissions, which is more appropriate for a gradual implementation of mitigation policies. For the aerosols, the emission metric values are larger in magnitude for emissions in Europe than East Asia and for summer than winter. A variation is also observed for the ozone precursors, with largest values for emissions in East Asia and winter for CO and in Europe and summer for VOCs. In general, the variations between the emission metrics derived from different models are larger than the variations between regions and seasons, but the regional and seasonal variations for the best estimate also hold for most of the models individually. Further, the estimated climate impact of an illustrative mitigation policy package is robust even when accounting for the fact that the magnitude of emission metrics for different species in a given model is correlated. For the ramping emission metrics, the values are generally larger than for pulse or sustained emissions, which holds for all SLCFs. For SLCFs mitigation policies, the dependency of metric values on the region and season of emission should be considered

Methane's solar radiative forcing

Methane (CH4) has significant absorption bands at wavelengths of 1.7, 2.3, 3.3 and 7.6 μm which absorb incoming solar ‘shortwave’ (SW) radiation and contribute to radiative forcing (RF). A comprehensive quantification of CH4 SW RF is presented using a narrow-band radiative transfer model to calculate spatially and monthly resolved estimates of CH4 SW RF and its impact on longwave (LW) stratospheric temperature adjusted RF (SARF). These new calculations include satellite measurements of CH4 distribution and spectrally varying surface albedo, and include absorption of solar mid-infrared radiation by methane's 7.6 μm band. These factors substantially influence methane's SW effect. For a 750–1,800 ppb perturbation, the all-sky top-of-atmosphere SW instantaneous RF is 0.082 W m−2; at the tropopause it is 0.002 W m−2, considerably smaller than previous estimates. Including the impact of SW absorption on stratospheric temperature increases tropopause SARF by 0.039 W m−2 (or 7%) compared to the LW-only SARF

Evidencing a place for the hippocampus within the core scene processing network

Functional neuroimaging studies have identified several “core” brain regions that are preferentially activated by scene stimuli, namely posterior parahippocampal gyrus (PHG), retrosplenial cortex (RSC), and transverse occipital sulcus (TOS). The hippocampus (HC), too, is thought to play a key role in scene processing, although no study has yet investigated scene-sensitivity in the HC relative to these other “core” regions. Here, we characterised the frequency and consistency of individual scene-preferential responses within these regions by analysing a large dataset (n = 51) in which participants performed a one-back working memory task for scenes, objects, and scrambled objects. An unbiased approach was adopted by applying independently-defined anatomical ROIs to individual-level functional data across different voxel-wise thresholds and spatial filters. It was found that the majority of subjects had preferential scene clusters in PHG (max = 100% of participants), RSC (max = 76%), and TOS (max = 94%). A comparable number of individuals also possessed significant scene-related clusters within their individually defined HC ROIs (max = 88%), evidencing a HC contribution to scene processing. While probabilistic overlap maps of individual clusters showed that overlap “peaks” were close to those identified in group-level analyses (particularly for TOS and HC), inter-individual consistency varied across regions and statistical thresholds. The inter-regional and inter-individual variability revealed by these analyses has implications for how scene-sensitive cortex is localised and interrogated in functional neuroimaging studies, particularly in medial temporal lobe regions, such as the H

Polar ozone

The observation and interpretation of a large, unexpected ozone depletion over Antarctica has changed the international scientific view of stratospheric chemistry. The observations which show the veracity, seasonal nature, and vertical structure of the Antarctic ozone hole are presented. Evidence for Arctic and midlatitude ozone loss is also discussed. The chemical theory for Antarctic ozone depletion centers around the occurrence of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) in Antarctic winter and spring; the climatology and radiative properties of these clouds are presented. Lab studies of the physical properties of PSCs and the chemical processes that subsequently influence ozone depletion are discussed. Observations and interpretation of the chemical composition of the Antarctic stratosphere are described. It is shown that the observed, greatly enhanced abundances of chlorine monoxide in the lower stratosphere are sufficient to explain much if not all of the ozone decrease. The dynamic meteorology of both polar regions is given, interannual and interhemispheric variations in dynamical processes are outlined, and their likely roles in ozone loss are discussed

Direct radiative effect of aerosols emitted by transport from road, shipping and aviation

Aerosols and their precursors are emitted abundantly by transport activities. Transportation constitutes one of the fastest growing activities and its growth is predicted to increase significantly in the future. Previous studies have estimated the aerosol direct radiative forcing from one transport sub-sector, but only one study to our knowledge estimated the range of radiative forcing from the main aerosol components (sulphate, black carbon (BC) and organic carbon) for the whole transportation sector. In this study, we compare results from two different chemical transport models and three radiation codes under different hypothesis of mixing: internal and external mixing using emission inventories for the year 2000. The main results from this study consist of a positive direct radiative forcing for aerosols emitted by road traffic of +20±11 mW m−2 for an externally mixed aerosol, and of +32±13 mW m−2 when BC is internally mixed. These direct radiative forcings are much higher than the previously published estimate of +3±11 mW m−2. For transport activities from shipping, the net direct aerosol radiative forcing is negative. This forcing is dominated by the contribution of the sulphate. For both an external and an internal mixture, the radiative forcing from shipping is estimated at −26±4 mW m−2. These estimates are in very good agreement with the range of a previously published one (from −46 to −13 mW m−2) but with a much narrower range. By contrast, the direct aerosol forcing from aviation is estimated to be small, and in the range −0.9 to +0.3 mW m−2

Fermi resonance and the quantum mechanical basis of global warming

Although the scientific principles of anthropogenic climate change are well-established, existing calculations of the warming effect of carbon dioxide rely on spectral absorption databases, which obscures the physical foundations of the climate problem. Here, we show how CO2 radiative forcing can be expressed via a first-principles description of the molecule’s key vibrational-rotational transitions. Our analysis elucidates the dependence of carbon dioxide’s effectiveness as a greenhouse gas on the Fermi resonance between the symmetric stretch mode ν1 and bending mode ν2 . It is remarkable that an apparently accidental quantum resonance in an otherwise ordinary three-atom molecule has had such a large impact on our planet’s climate over geologic time, and will also help determine its future warming due to human activity. In addition to providing a simple explanation of CO2 radiative forcing on Earth, our results may have implications for understanding radiation and climate on other planets