Optimising the deployment of vector control tools against malaria: a data-informed modelling study

Background Concern that insecticide resistant mosquitoes are threatening malaria control has driven the development of new types of insecticide treated nets (ITNs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) of insecticide. Malaria control programmes have a choice of vector control interventions although it is unclear which controls should be used to combat the disease. The study aimed at producing a framework to easily compare the public health impact and cost-effectiveness of different malaria prevention measures currently in widespread use. Methods We used published data from experimental hut trials conducted across Africa to characterise the entomological effect of pyrethroid-only ITNs versus ITNs combining a pyrethroid insecticide with the synergist piperonyl butoxide (PBO). We use these estimates to parameterise a dynamic mathematical model of Plasmodium falciparum malaria which is validated for two sites by comparing simulated results to empirical data from randomised control trials (RCTs) in Tanzania and Uganda. We extrapolated model simulations for a series of potential scenarios likely across the sub-Saharan African region and include results in an online tool (Malaria INtervention Tool [MINT]) that aims to identify optimum vector control intervention packages for scenarios with varying budget, price, entomological and epidemiological factors. Findings Our model indicates that switching from pyrethroid-only to pyrethroid-PBO ITNs could averted up to twice as many cases, although the additional benefit is highly variable and depends on the setting conditions. We project that annual delivery of long-lasting, non-pyrethroid IRS would prevent substantially more cases over 3-years, while pyrethroid-PBO ITNs tend to be the most cost-effective intervention per case averted. The model was able to predict prevalence and efficacy against prevalence in both RCTs for the intervention types tested. MINT is applicable to regions of sub-Saharan Africa with endemic malaria and provides users with a method of designing intervention packages given their setting and budget. Interpretation The most cost-effective vector control package will vary locally. Models able to recreate results of RCTs can be used to extrapolate outcomes elsewhere to support evidence-based decision making for investment in vector control

Ocean acidification and temperature rise: effects on calcification during early development of the cuttlefish Sepia officinalis

This study investigated the effects of seawater pH (i.e., 8.10, 7.85 and 7.60) and temperature (16 and 19 °C) on (a) the abiotic conditions in the fluid surrounding the embryo (viz. the perivitelline fluid), (b) growth, development and (c) cuttlebone calcification of embryonic and juvenile stages of the cephalopod Sepia officinalis. Egg swelling increased in response to acidification or warming, leading to an increase in egg surface while the interactive effects suggested a limited plasticity of the swelling modulation. Embryos experienced elevated pCO2 conditions in the perivitelline fluid (>3-fold higher pCO2 than that of ambient seawater), rendering the medium under-saturated even under ambient conditions. The growth of both embryos and juveniles was unaffected by pH, whereas 45Ca incorporation in cuttlebone increased significantly with decreasing pH at both temperatures. This phenomenon of hypercalcification is limited to only a number of animals but does not guarantee functional performance and calls for better mechanistic understanding of calcification processes

Respiratory microbiota resistance and resilience to pulmonary exacerbation and subsequent antimicrobial intervention

© 2016 International Society for Microbial Ecology All rights reserved. Pulmonary symptoms in cystic fibrosis (CF) begin in early life with chronic lung infections and concomitant airway inflammation leading to progressive loss of lung function. Gradual pulmonary function decline is interspersed with periods of acute worsening of respiratory symptoms known as CF pulmonary exacerbations (CFPEs). Cumulatively, CFPEs are associated with more rapid disease progression. In this study multiple sputum samples were collected from adult CF patients over the course of CFPEs to better understand how changes in microbiota are associated with CFPE onset and management. Data were divided into five clinical periods: pre-CFPE baseline, CFPE, antibiotic treatment, recovery, and post-CFPE baseline. Samples were treated with propidium monoazide prior to DNA extraction, to remove the impact of bacterial cell death artefacts following antibiotic treatment, and then characterised by 16S rRNA gene-targeted high-throughput sequencing. Partitioning CF microbiota into core and rare groups revealed compositional resistance to CFPE and resilience to antibiotics interventions. Mixed effects modelling of core microbiota members revealed no significant negative impact on the relative abundance of Pseudomonas aeruginosa across the exacerbation cycle. Our findings have implications for current CFPE management strategies, supporting reassessment of existing antimicrobial treatment regimens, as antimicrobial resistance by pathogens and other members of the microbiota may be significant contributing factors

Supporting files for: "Durability of three types of dual active ingredient long-lasting insecticidal net compared to a pyrethroid-only LLIN in Tanzania: methodology for a prospective cohort study nested in a cluster randomized controlled trial"

Supporting files associated with the paper, "Durability of three types of dual active ingredient long-lasting insecticidal net compared to a pyrethroid-only LLIN in Tanzania: methodology for a prospective cohort study nested in a cluster randomized controlled trial". It includes: (1) a net follow up questionnaire; (2) Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) for dissection and estimation of oviposition inhibition; (3) Stata DO file for random Latin Square; (4) Net Study informed consent agreement, and (5) Volunteers information sheet and consent agreement for the Hut trial

Inferring the epidemiological benefit of indoor vector control interventions against malaria from mosquito data.

The cause of malaria transmission has been known for over a century but it is still unclear whether entomological measures are sufficiently reliable to inform policy decisions in human health. Decision-making on the effectiveness of new insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and the indoor residual spraying of insecticide (IRS) have been based on epidemiological data, typically collected in cluster-randomised control trials. The number of these trials that can be conducted is limited. Here we use a systematic review to highlight that efficacy estimates of the same intervention may vary substantially between trials. Analyses indicate that mosquito data collected in experimental hut trials can be used to parameterize mechanistic models for Plasmodium falciparum malaria and reliably predict the epidemiological efficacy of quick-acting, neuro-acting ITNs and IRS. Results suggest that for certain types of ITNs and IRS using this framework instead of clinical endpoints could support policy and expedite the widespread use of novel technologies